p.1-2 Sustainable Development therefore requires responsible
management of a complex system... In order to introduce management systems, however, we have to be very
clear about both our goals... and the criteria that tell us the extent to which the goals are being achieved. The
designers of a management system must also have at least a reasonable understanding of the structure and
dynamic characteristics of the system to be controlled
p.2 It is a basic premiss of this paper that most currently-dominant
models of... environment are scientifically deficient, and contribute to mismanagement... This means we must go beyond criticism
of current models to a synthesis that takes what is useful from them and builds something more suited to the real world of
complexity.
p.8 A consistent analytical framework has been constructed
by Bossel, to assist in identifying those parts of a complex system where the condition of one or more key state
variables may threaten the viability of the whole system. This framework is designed to identify the fundamental Needs
of a system, to ensure its viability or sustainability, over the longer term (Bossel, 1999; Peet and Bossel, 1998,
1998a).
p.8 Basic Orientors are the Basic System Needs. A minimum level
of satisfaction of each need, each basic orientor, is essential; an oversupply of one cannot substitute for a deficit of another.
In other words, the key to the viability and sustainability of the system is a sufficiency of each and every orientor.
When assessing the viability of a social system it is imperative
that planning, decisions and actions must always respond to at least the basic orientors, or derived criteria such
as indicators, simultaneously. Multi-criteria assessment is therefore the norm. If any basic orientor shows
a greater deficiency of satisfaction than others, the conditions that affect that salient orientor’s viability must
receive attention first, before we select any other basic orientor for attention.
p.10 It is entirely to be expected that by drawing on both expert and
lay wisdom, it will be possible to identify, via their indicators, those basic orientors
of viability of a particular subsystem in which we are interested that are (to use Liebig’s term) “in
the minimum”. Effort can then be concentrated on means to overcome those constraints, to improve
the viability of the subsystem and in turn that of the whole system. By so doing, the key areas will be identified,
where supply of a scarce vital resource or removal of a damaging substance or process will have a major effect on the future
state, and therefore the viability, of the subsystem (also see Bossel, 1999; Peet and Bossel, 1988, 1988a).
p.10 Once the constraint on a basic criterion in a complex system has
been eased and it ceases to be “in the minimum”, it is reasonable to expect that, in the course of time and as
a result of coevolutionary or other dynamic circumstances, another may reach the state of being “in the minimum”,
and become a new constraint. In other words, that to which we attribute value is not necessarily fixed in time or space, and
the components that are of value in ensuring the viability of the whole are also subject to change.
p.11 Policy development requires a hierarchy of processes...
In practice, this stage can be addressed by concentrating on identifying, and determining the extent of satisfaction
of, basic orientors of viability of the system. After achieving satisfaction of all basic orientors, it is then possible
to develop further options by “balancing” the positive and negative consequences of possibilities... Systems
thinking, such as illustrated here, has a potentially vital contribution to make to this essential task.
