p.7 Our objective is to construct what one might call a "conceptual model," a decision maker's view
of the dynamic forces shaping the future of whatever arena we are interested in. With such a model in mind, we can
see more clearly the total pattern of events and trends, their interrelationships and cross-impacts, and their implications
p.8 in Part 6, the last major section of the book, we deal with the broader issues of the relationship between
scenarios and the planning and decision-making culture of the organization... This section deals, therefore, with the actions
required for creating a "learning culture," one that tolerates ambiguity and uncertainty, that learns its way into
the future, and that values consideration of a broad range of options before making a strategic commitment.
p.9 the most that this book can give you is a structured process, a framework for strategic thinking...
It cannot, by itself, give you the new insight into the future... the vision that will reshape your strategy. Those qualities
can only come from experience and from within.
p.13-14 To develop a new strategy for the future, organizations need to overcome these
issues [poor means for linking strategic thinking to possible changes in the external environment, lack of innovative thinking,
lack of time or process, having no leverage from the existing knowledge of the organization] and apply a process that
takes into account the possibilities of the future, that involves decision makers and critical thinkers of the organization,
that seeks initially to explore the range of strategy possibilities before making a decision, that uses objective
criteria and a transparent strategy selection process, and that communicates widely the results and how they were obtained
p.14 In the place of single-point forecasting, we should focus our efforts on developing a deep understanding
of the dynamics of change, and of the multiple possible futures to which they might lead.
p.14 Sooner of later the forecasts will fail when they are needed most: in anticipating major shifts
in the business environment that make focused strategies obsolete. Scenario planning, on the other hand, is most useful when
such shifts are most threatening and uncertainty is at its peak.
p.14-15 We need to examine strategy alternatives in the context of different possible outcomes.
We need monitoring to keep track of the multifarious forces that shape our environment, and forecasting to
project where these trends may lead us in the near term. We need a sensitive scanning system to alert us to the appearance
of new and unforeseen forces that may channel the future in unexpected directions. And we need scenarios
to give us a sense of the possibilities - the opportunities as well as the threats - that this uncertain
future may present to us.
p.15 scenarios are simply "stories of possible futures."
p.16 Scenarios, then, are stories in the sense that they describe the evolving
dynamics of interacting forces rather than the static picture of a single endpoint future... The futures they describe
are possible and plausible
p.16 Scenarios are frameworks for structuring executives' perceptions about alternative future environments
in which their decisions might be played out.
p.17 this approach to scenarios... has the inestimable strength of capturing the power of both logic and
imagination in creating stories of the future.
p.21 The starting point for this process is agreement on the uses to which the scenarios will be
put - the decision focus.
p.23 The heart of the scenario process is in identifying the key axes of uncertainty confronting
the organization and the alternative "logics" of how major driving forces could play out.
p.37 Scenario planning is all about creating tailored scenarios to help make important decisions.
These tailored scenarios are not generalized views about how the world could evolve, but specific descriptions of
the possible marketplace dynamics, regulatory developments, and customer behavior that will influence the
success or failure of those decisions... Chapter 7 describes how to create the focus that will deliver scenarios
that will help in decision making.
p.42 It is true that the Committee of Managing Directors, the company's [Royal Dutch Shell] senior management
group, deserves credit for recognizing, as early as 1972-1973, that traditional forecasts were by then fast becoming
a dangerous substitute for real thinking in times of uncertainty, and that scenarios provided a potentially better framework
for thinking about the future.
p.52 virtually any decision or area of strategic concern in which environmental factors are complex and
changing may be appropriate for treatment by scenarios.
p.57 The focus of the scenario process is to create scenarios specific to the decision, so that
the decision makers, who must consider the different alternatives and their risks and rewards far out into the future,
have an effective tool for examining decision implications and evaluating risks and rewards.
p.62 For first-time efforts, the involvement of a scenario-planning specialist is recommended.
p.75 Scenarios depend equally, for their success and utility, on ideas and information.
p.87-89 the team can now turn its attention to identifying the key trends and uncertainties that will form
the warp and woof [JLJ - fabric or underlying structure] of the scenarios... the goal of the step is to construct
what we can think of as a conceptual model of the dynamics of the business environment. To do this, we
need to develop as inclusive a list as possible of the forces and drivers... and then build
a simple model of the environment from that list... A relatively comprehensive, yet simple, way of doing this is
to construct a schematic of the dynamics of the business environment... we must make every effort at this
stage to ensure that our mapping of external forces is as complete as possible. We should not be deterred by the seeming
impracticality of manipulating as many as 100-200 forces, which is frequently the case at this stage. This multiplicity of
forces in our model is an accurate reflection of the complexity of the real world.
p.111 identifying the key axes of uncertainty confronting the organization and the alternative
"logics" of how the major driving forces could play out - is both literally and figuratively the heart of
the scenario process.
p.153 What strategies should we pursue no matter which scenario materializes?
p.168 Research analysts, experts, and specialists in the areas of interest should
be asked to identify the forces, indicators, and signs that would give early warning of the scenario outcomes or
the need to make a decision about a particular strategy.
p.179 Scenarios are more than a new methodology: They entail a new way of
thinking about the future, a new approach to strategic planning and decision making, and a pronounced shift in the
prevailing management culture... Consistently making better strategic decisions in an environment of uncertainty is a difficult
proposition. A number of organizations accomplish it... They turn their organizations into adaptive organizations, where continuous
thinking and preparation for the future is a priority and where strategic decision making in the midst of change and uncertainty
is a real competence.
p.183 It is critical, therefore, not to oversell the process at the outset, but to call it a tool
- an invaluable tool, but a tool nonetheless - for integrating, and making sense of, the voluminous, disparate
information about the external environment, and identifying the range of possible outcomes in the future.
p.185 Change-oriented companies must have superior intelligence about the external
environment.
p.211 We need to change the way we develop strategy, recognizing that in conditions of extreme uncertainty,
resilience becomes a key strategic objective... We need to admit that we can never truly know the future: but we
should not allow that fact to weaken our ability to take decisive action.
p.213 Scenario planning... forces them [managers and planners] to confront uncertainties about the future
more realistically.
p.213 the rewards of successful scenario-based strategy development are considerable. Scenarios
can result in better understanding of the dynamics of the business environment, more complete assessment of the full
range of opportunities and threats, greater range in the strategy options the decision makers are prepared to consider, more
robust and resilient strategies, and reduced vulnerability to being blindsided by surprises. [JLJ - sounds good to me. Where
can I buy one?]
p.237-238 We can see the potential of computer models for scenario planning from the rapid
development of computer games for all age levels for entertainment, training and business planning. The representations of
the game worlds are in effect scenario descriptions. Computer models are created for the interrelationships among
the forces and for projecting possible story lines... The models... can be, however, valuable
learning tools... Having constructed the model, managers and executives can "play" with it in varying
circumstances, alter strategic assumptions, and experiment with different strategies.
p.246 Stephan Haeckel, author of Adaptive Enterprise, notes, "Where organizations choose to place
their sensory probes and how they distinguish signals from random noise determine whether they will be sufficiently aware
of what is happening 'out there.' " ...The most important tools for remaining afloat in the turbulence are
a constant awareness of the changes going on around your organization and the ability to sense, make sense of, and adapt to
these changes.
