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Blind Variation and Selective Retention in Creative Thought (Campbell, 1960)
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The Case for Using Probabilistic Knowledge in a Computer Chess Program (John L. Jerz)
Resilience in Man and Machine

as in Other Knowledge Processes
 
The Psychological Review 67, pp.380-400
 
The impression you get when reading Campbell is that you should take seriously what he has to say.

p.380 This paper proposes to examine creative thought within the framework of a comparative psychology of knowledge processes, and in particular with regard to one theme recurrent in most knowledge processes. This theme may be expressed as follows:
1. A blind-variation-and-selective-retention process is fundamental to all inductive achievements, to all genuine increases in knowledge, to all increases in fit of system to environment.
2. The many processes which shortcut a more fully blind-variation-and-selective-retention process are in themselves inductive achievements, containing wisdom about the environment achieved originally by blind variation and selective retention.
3. In addition, such shortcut processes contain in their own operation a blind-variation-and-selective-retention process at some level, substituting for overt locomotor exploration or the life-and-death winnowing of organic evolution.
p.381 In the instances of such real gains, the successful explorations were in origin as blind as those which failed. The difference between the successful and unsuccessful was due to the nature of the environment encountered, representing discovered wisdom about that environment.
  The general model for such inductive gains is that underlying both trial-and-error problem solving and natural selection in evolution, the analogy between which has been noted by several persons (e.g., Ashby, 1952; Baldwin, 1900; Pringle, 1951).Three conditions are necessary: a mechanism for introducing variation, a consistent selection process, and a mechanism for preserving and reproducing the selected variations. In what follows we shall look for these three ingredients at a variety of levels.
 
p.385 [Souriau] There is something mechanical, so to speak, in the art of finding solutions. The truly original mind is that which discovers problems.
 
p.386 [Souriau] New ideas cannot have prototypes: their appearance can only be attributed to chance.
 
p.391 the difference between a hit and a miss lies in the selective conditions encountered, not in the talent differences in the generation of the trials.
 
p.396 [Sewall Wright] The theory is deterministic only in an exceedingly limited sense. It is essentially a theory of the conditions favorable for an ever continuing process that is essentially unpredictable in its details. There can be no formula for serendipity.
 
p.397 Ceteris paribus [other things being equal], a creative solution is more likely the longer a problem is worked upon, the more variable the thought trials, the more people working on the problem independently, the more heterogeneous these people, the less the time pressure, etc.
 
p.397 This paper has attempted to make the psychological and epistemological point that all processes leading to expansions of knowledge involve a blind-variation-and-selective-retention process.
 
p.398 The model is not in disagreement with the bulk of the Gestalt description of problem solving, nor the work on heuristically programed problem-solving computers.

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