ix"Over the course of two generations, we have witnessed the unprecedented development of structured, useful,
and operational methodologies for modern critical thinking, well adapted to our second millennium ways of practicing it, problem
understanding and decision making.
x Within the context of heuristics in the health sciences, for example, a busy physician in the
midst of a frantic hospital emergency service simply does not have enough time to base his or her decisions on a
full blown argumentation and analysis of its building blocks and their interconnections. He or she must make mental
shortcuts while preserving the correct essence of clinical problem solving. Algorithms are just one of the decision
making tools where appropriate. Researchers in artificial intelligence and computer science face similar problems.
p.5 Argument Making is the effort to be logical; that is, to rely on the relevant reasons and facts as we
see them when making our decisions... Heuristic Thinking is the tendency, at times quite useful, of relying on cognitive
heuristics, which are highly efficient mental maneuvers, to reach a conclusion. The cognitive
maneuvers are as much a part of the human reasoning process as argument making.
p.24 Human decision making is not combinatorially exhaustive of every possible option and all foreseeable
consequences. Rather, it is, in general, quick and efficient, even if at times mistaken and unwise.
p.25 Theories which attempt to explain naturalistic decisions, like the kidney donor example in Chapter
1, describe the interaction of two overlapping systems of reasoning that are active in human decision making. One is often
described as reactive, instinctive, quick and holistic (System-1) and the other is more reflective, deliberative, analytical,
and procedural (System-2).
System-1 thinking is believed to rely heavily on heuristics, key situational cues, and salient memories
to arrive quickly and confidently at judgments, particularly when situations are familiar and immediate action is required...
System-2 thinking is believed to be useful for judgments in unfamiliar situations, for processing abstract concepts, and for
deliberating when there is time for planning and more comprehensive consideration... Both systems are believed to be valuable,
simultaneously functioning processes often checking and balancing each other.
p.93 reasoning is modeled as the interaction of argument making and heuristic thinking.
p.113 Heuristic thinking strategies are ordinarily reliable maneuvers to guide decision making,
particularly in familiar contexts. They play larger roles under conditions of uncertainty and in unfamiliar contexts
or where the evidence which would support sound arguments and claims is lacking... The first step toward evaluating
the influences of heuristic thinking as being able to recognize where and how these strategies are used in human reasoning.
p.120 Representativeness - Analogical [section title] Cognitive maneuver: Infer that because X is like
Y in some way or other, X is like Y in relevant ways. A perceived similarity becomes the basis for assuming that
there is an analogical relationship between two things, an analogy which may or may not be warranted.
p.130 Zero-out tendency [section title] Cognitive maneuver: Simplify decision contexts by treating
remote probabilities as if they [are] not even possibilities.
p.143 To understand fully and to be able to influence individual and group decision making in contexts of
risk and uncertainty, we must explore how humans acquire sufficient confidence in a given option such that they discard
other possibilities and form the firm intention to act on that option.
p.180 The first fundamental way we humans draw reasoned inference is by moving from the more familiar
to the less familiar... The second fundamental mode of human reasoning is from broad principles to their
applications or to other broad principles which they imply... The third mode of reasoning is from the particulars
to generalizations, which in its most refined development is the touchstone for the empirical sciences.
