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The Logical Thinking Process (Dettmer, 2007)

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A Systems Approach to Complex Problem Solving

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A major rewrite of Dettmer's classic Goldratt's Theory of Constraints, this new edition presents a whole new approach to building and applying logic trees. The logical thinking process referred to in the title is nothing less than a broadly applicable, systems-level approach to policy analysis. Dettmer has streamlined the process of constructing the logic trees while simultaneously ensuring that the results are more logically sound and closer representations of reality than ever before. He explains an easier, more logically sound way to integrate Current Reality Trees with Evaporating Clouds. His new version of the thinking process "retires" the Transition Tree in favor of the marriage of a more detailed Prerequisite Tree and critical chain project management. This book contains new examples of logic trees from a variety of real-world applications. Most of the diagrams and illustrations are new and improved. Explanations and procedures for constructing the logic trees are considerably simplified. Completely new to this edition is a unique graphical software application - Transformation Logic Trees, designed primarily to create thinking process logic trees and only secondarily for other flowcharting uses. Provided on the accompanying CD-ROM is a full-function, unrestricted copy of version 1.0 for new and experienced users of the thinking process alike to use in building their logic trees. Appendix J in the book provides more information on how to install and use the software.

About the Author
H. William "Bill" Dettmer is Senior Partner at Goal Systems International, a consortium of management professionals with more than 120 years of combined experience. He has twenty-three years' experience in military operations, logistics, strategic planning, operational planning, training, large-scale systems deployment, project management, and contracting. Since 1996, Dettmer has applied the thinking process in commercial companies, government agencies, and not-for-profit organizations throughout the U.S., South America, Europe, Japan, Korea, and Australia. He is author of Goldratt's Theory of Constraints (ASQ Quality Press, 1997), Breaking the Constraints to World-Class Performance (ASQ Quality Press, 1998), Strategic Navigation (ASQ Quality Press, 2003), and Brainpower Networking Using the Crawford Slip Method (Trafford Publishing, 2003), as well as co-author (with Eli Schragenheim) of Manufacturing at Warp Speed (CRC St. Lucie Press, 2000).
 
The best treatment ever written on Goldratt's Logical Thinking Process, September 21, 2007
Review By  Christopher Zephro (Santa Cruz, CA)

The most comprehensive, easy-to-follow, step-by-step guide to finding real solutions to problems I face in business every day. Dettmer has created the definitive guide for applying Goldratt's Logical Thinking Process. The book is loaded with great examples and presents a much more streamlined approach to building the logic trees, including the Current & Future Reality Tree, Conflict Cloud and the Prerequisite and Transition Trees. Additionally, Dettmer introduces and details how to build the most useful tool I've ever used in business, the Intermediate Objective Map, which helps Managers define where they want to be (the goal), to compare against where they are today.
If you really want to find the key leverage points to fundamentally improve your business, this book will give you all the tools you need to achieve your goal.
5+ Stars
 
[JLJ - this reference is a recommended starting point for those who do not understand Goldratt's Theory of Constraints or Thinking Process. The idea in this text is that tough problems involving large systems (such as businesses or factories) are only solved by understanding the cause and effect relationships, and identifying the root causes of undesirable effects which we are able to influence and act upon.
 
This book is a convenient starting point for applying the Theory of Constraints, or more specifically Goldratt's Thinking Process,  to a computer chess program.]

p.11 The Theory of Constraints (TOC) is a prescriptive theory, which means it tells you not only what's holding your system back, but also what to do about it and how to do it. A lot of theories answer the first question - what's wrong. Some even tell you what to do about it, but those that do usually focus on processes rather than the system as a whole. And they're completely oblivious to the concept of system constraints.
 
p.13 Systems thinking is preferable to analytical thinking in managing change and solving problems.
 
p.13 All systems operate in an environment of cause and effect. Something causes something else to happen. This cause-and-effect phenomenon can be very complicated, especially in complex systems.
 
p.13 Identifying and eliminating a critical root cause not only eliminates all the undesirable effects that issue from it, but also prevents them from returning.
 
p.22 In my strategy development work, I found the IO [Intermediate Objectives] Map to be not just useful, but critical to success.
 
p.23 The Current Reality Tree (CRT) is a gap analysis tool... It helps us examine the cause-and-effect logic behind our current situation and determines why that situation is different from the state we'd prefer to be in, as expressed in the IO [Intermediate Objectives] Map.
   The CRT begins with the undesirable effects we see around us - direct comparisons between existing reality and the terminal outcomes expressed in the IO Map. It helps us work back to identify a few critical root causes that originate all the undesirable effects we're experiencing. These critical root causes inevitably include the constraint we're trying to identify in the Five Focusing Steps.
   The CRT tells us what to change - the one simplest change to make that will have the greatest positive effect on our system.
 
p.68, 69 An Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map is a graphical representation of a system's goal, critical success factors (CSFs), and the necessary conditions (NC) for achieving them. These elements are arrayed in a logically connected hierarchy, with the goal at the top, the CSFs immediately below it, and the supporting NCs below them. Each of the entities in the IO Map exists in a necessity-based relationship (see Chapter 2) with the entities below it. The CSFs could be considered major milestones, or terminal outcomes, on the journey to the goal. NCs represent the conclusion of significant activities required to complete the CSFs.
 
Purpose
 
The IO Map is intended to fix in time and space a firm baseline or standard for what should be happening if a system is to succeed. Its collective depiction of a goal, CSFs, and NCs constitute the system's benchmark of desired performance - the destination toward which all system improvement efforts should be directed. In other words, before you can decide how well you're doing, you must have a clear understanding of what you should be doing. A well-constructed IO Map presents a rational, unemotional representation of the non-negotiable requirements a system must satisfy in its quest to achieve its stated goal. These are not things you'd like to do, but rather things you must do if the goal is to be achieved. Without such a frame of reference, the determination of what should be changed within the system is merely a matter of opinion and speculation...By now it should be clear that the Logical Thinking Process is a system-level problem-solving tool.
 
p.70 Span of Control
Simply put, our span of control includes all of those things in our system over which we have unilateral change authority. In other words, we can decide to change those things on our own. Span of control varies for each individual, but it has one common characteristic for everybody: it's extremely limited. It doesn't matter if you're the President of the United States or a company employee - most of what you must deal with on a daily basis is beyond your unilateral control.
 
Sphere of Influence
 
Sphere of influence is an arbitrary perimeter enclosing those aspects of our lives that we can influence to some degree, even if we can't exercise unilateral control over them. The sphere of influence obviously is substantially larger than the span of control.
 
p.98 Keep the concepts of span of control and sphere of influence in mind while you're building your Current Reality Tree, but don't let them limit you in its construction. Follow the cause-and-effect chain wherever it may lead... Use it [sphere of influence] to help you decide for which problems you can reasonably expect effective results and for which attack might be futile.
 
p.98 The power of the CRT comes from its basis in cause and effect. Sometimes people confuse cause and effect with correlation. It's important to understand the difference between the two, because CRTs with correlations embedded in them are likely to be invalid: They may isolate the wrong root causes, which could cost you time, energy, and resources in trying to solve the wrong problem...
   The difference between correlation and cause and effect is essentially the difference between how and why... Without knowing why, you'll never know what makes the correlation exist. This means you'll never be sure whether the correlations depends on other variables you haven't identified. In a problem analysis situation, this could cause you to focus on the wrong problem. It also means that you won't be able to effectively predict future instances of the correlation, because you'll never know whether a key variable is present or not.
 
p.100 One of the first elements you will encounter in a Current Reality Tree is the undesirable effect, or UDE (pronounced 'OOH-dee'). What is an undesirable effect? Essentially, it's the most prominent indication you have that something might be amiss in a system. An UDE is something that really exists; something that is negative compared with the system's goal, critical success factors, or necessary conditions... You might be aware of several UDEs. Or you might just notice one. In a complex system, there will probably be several. But you can start a CRT with as few as one.
 
p.102 We start with UDEs because doing so speeds our analysis of what's wrong with our system and generally leads to faster improvement. UDEs are only the most visible results of much more complex interactions and processes, but like a gopher hole in a perfectly manicured lawn, they're the "gateway" to finding the real underlying problem. If you choose the wrong gateway, you won't find the right problem... In building a Current Reality Tree, we work our way from UDEs back through the chain of cause and effect to root causes. The root cause is the beginning of the cause-effect relationship. There may be several intermediate effects and causes between the root cause and the UDE... But when you've worked your way down to a cause and you just can't go any farther, you're at a root cause... from a practical standpoint, you quickly exceed your span of control and soon thereafter your sphere of influence. There's no point in working on something over which you don't have at least some influence.
 
p.103 Every Current Reality Tree will have several root causes - maybe even a lot of them. One root cause in any Current Reality Tree is likely to be the origin of a substantial number of UDEs. The primary objective of the CRT is to work backward from UDEs through a chain of cause and effect to identify the few root causes that account for as many of the system's UDEs as possible. Your purpose in building a Current Reality Tree is to try to find the very few root causes that, if corrected, will have the greatest positive impact on system improvement - the most "bang for your buck."
 
p.105, 107 From its inception in the early 1990s, the Thinking Process was intended to find what Goldratt referred to as a core problem - the one policy or practice that accounted for most of the undesirable effects experienced by a system... we'll dig down to a few critical root causes that are both actionable and within the sphere of influence of an accessible decision maker.
 
p.108 A critical root cause is a policy, practice, or prevalent behavior that constitutes the lowest level of causality in existing reality lying within someone's sphere of influence to change.
 
p.110 With a Current Reality Tree... An entity is either a cause or an effect. Or it can be both - that is, the effect of one cause and the cause of another effect. This is what enables us to create chains of cause and effect.
 
p.127-138 How to Construct a Current Reality Tree
  Now you're ready to begin constructing your own Current Reality Tree. Before you start, does your situation qualify for a CRT?
  • Do you have adequate intuitive knowledge about the situation, or do you need to do some research first? Are you able to recognize and understand patterns and interactions on your system?
  • Do you care about finding a solution to the problem? Have you assumed ownership of the problem? Do you have enough desire to fix it to justify the work that lies ahead?

If you can answer "yes" to these questions, you're ready to proceed... There's something you really need to change about your circumstances. You are able to say, confidently, "My system really needs to improve in these areas..." ...

1. Define the System to be Modeled...
2. Determine the Undesirable Effects...
3. Determine the First Two Levels of Causality...
4. Begin the Current Reality Tree...
5. Improve the Logic of the Initial Clusters...
6. Identify Possible Additional Causes...
7. Look for Lateral Connections...
8. Build the Cause-and-Effect Chains Downward...
9. Scrutinize the Entire Current Reality Tree...
10. Decide Which Root Causes to Attack

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