Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

Dynamics and Indeterminism in Developmental and Social Processes (Fogel, Lyra, Valsiner, 1997)

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One of the most profound insights of the dynamic systems perspective is that new structures resulting from the developmental process do not need to be planned in advance, nor is it necessary to have these structures represented in genetic or neurological templates prior to their emergence. Rather, new structures can emerge as components of the individual and the environment self-organize; that is, as they mutually constrain each other's actions, new patterns and structures may arise. This theoretical possibility brings into developmental theory the important concept of indeterminism--the possibility that developmental outcomes may not be predictable in any simple linear causal way from their antecedents.

This is the first book to take a critical and serious look at the role of indeterminism in psychological and behavioral development.
* What is the source of this indeterminism?
* What is its role in developmental change?
* Is it merely the result of incomplete observational data or error in measurement?

It reviews the concepts of indeterminism and determinism in their historical, philosophical, and theoretical perspectives--particularly in relation to dynamic systems thinking--and applies these general ideas to systems of nonverbal communication. Stressing the indeterminacy inherent to symbols and meaning making in social systems, several chapters address the issue of indeterminism from metaphorical, modeling, and narrative perspectives. Others discuss those indeterministic processes within the individual related to emotional, social, and cognitive development.
 
[JLJ - powerful ideas which are useful for developing heuristics for game playing. The emerging constraints are the bridge between determinism and indeterminism and allow a reasonably accurate forecast of a promising future to steer search efforts for promising situations.]

p.4 One of the most profound insights of the dynamic systems perspective is that the new structures resulting from the developmental process do not need to be planned in advance, nor is it necessary to have these structures represented in a genetic or neurological template prior to their emergence. Rather, new structure can emerge as components of the individual and the environment self-organize, that is, as they mutually constrain each other's actions.
  This theoretical possibility brings into developmental theory the important concept of indeterminism: the possibility that developmental outcomes may not be predictable in any simple linear causal way from their antecedents.
 
p.21 Determinism and indeterminism are antithetic concepts in that they both stand for a 'dead' universe. A deterministic universe is dead because it has no degrees of freedom: Everything is predestined, and no information is created because all information is contained in the initial state (whatever that may be). An indeterministic universe is lifeless because it contains an infinite number of degrees of freedom. No information is created because every event has a similar probability. However, where the two principles meet, information and order are created in the form of highly reduced degrees of freedom, in which differences between events become meaningful and informative. The new synthetic concept that unites determinism and indeterminism is the concept of complex order, emerging out of self-organization. In order for complex order to emerge, both determinism and indeterminism are needed.
 
p.21 Self-organization means that we don't need the nearly infinite knowledge of Laplace to compute and predict the future of the universe. It suffices that we find fingerprints of self-organization, signs that some processes of self-organization and the creation of dynamic order are at work. Those fingerprints will lead us, more or less automatically, to solving the problem of where the future will bring us.
 
p.32 dynamic model building... is a technique allowing us to obtain mental access to some aspects of the future... So far, I have emphasized the limiting aspect of dynamic models. That is, I have presented them as ways to select the more likely out of an endless sea of possible futures. If a dynamic model provides a valid description of the way development works, it shows how conditions at some previous state (and preferably an initial state) constrain the set of possible outcomes... A primary characteristic of chaotic dynamics is that arbitrarily small differences between initial states will cause major differences in resulting trajectories... It is possible, however, that another part of the dynamics binds the new degrees of freedom caused by a chaos-producing mechanism into a much more restricted range.
 
p.65 According to the dynamic systems theory that guides our work, organized patterns form because of the mutual constraints imposed by participants on each other within particular contexts. The emergence of new patterns is never strictly determined by prior conditions, because the local interactions create sources of indeterminacy.
 
p.70 the tension between determinism and indeterminism in human development derives from the simultaneous, coactive existence of a set of constraining factors allowing for the predictability of the system's development, together with the continuous generation of novelty coming from the multiple interactions in which the system participates.
 
p.98 The characteristic dynamics of dialog with a social other require that both partners are changing simultaneously as a consequence of a mutual co-regulation... The creative nature of this process of co-regulation means that we cannot predict in advance either the dynamic of the partner's actions or the result of the emergent outcomes that are co-constructed from the interaction.
 
p.102 As a consequence of this characteristic dynamic present in the establishment of the process of communication, including the initial range of possibilities of partners' actions and the actual choice of the partners' actions, the range of possibilities of future actions resulting from the dynamic of establishment closes some possibilities just when it opens new ones.
 
p.146 The first organizing principle is attention orientation. This acts as a prelude indicating the children's disposition to engage in the various activities and their monitoring of the other children's actions. Engagement in a particular course of action was always preceded by the orientation of attention in its direction...
  This leads us to a second organizing principle: sharing meanings...
  A third organizing principle emerges from the different ways in which the transition to a new sequence occurs. In some cases... there is a discontinuous transition... But the transition can also occur in a more continuous way
 
p.179 Any present state of the system has emerged on the basis of possibilities given in the immediately preceding past state of the system, just as the immediate future is given as a possibility in the present state.
 
p.180 The Principle of Constraints
As individuals and social entities are actualized through the developmental process, it is assumed that there are properties of reality which limit possible choices in action and variability in production. In other words, the scope of possibilities for change is limited by the set of properties of the existing system, which... may limit the options on other kinds of action. This set of implicit limitations in a system can be called the constraining system.
 
p.181 So far, we have seen that developing systems... are formed through interactive processes. A further claim is that the elements of the developing system are not entirely stable, but are transformed by use.
 
p.184 the configuration of elements, in space and in time, is important, rather than the sum of these elements, or even the precise nature of these elements themselves.
 
p.193 Self organization means the emergence and consolidation of novel forms that assemble themselves out of recursive interactions among simpler elements.
 
p.194 complex interactions among system elements have the potential to give rise to many different forms. The end result is never fully specified by its precursors, and small variations or random effects can greatly influence outcomes.
 
p.194 self-organizing systems are never completely indeterminate at any stage of their evolution. Rather, system elements and their initial relations with each other are already highly ordered, as are the environments in which they evolve. These structural and contextual specifications constrain the potentially infinite ways in which new forms can assemble. A challenge for dynamic systems approaches, then, is to sort out the roles of determinism and indeterminism that seem deeply interwoven in developmental processes.
    Developmentalists are familiar with the idea of constraints, and this term may help us to think about the role of indeterminism in self-organizing systems. Constraints on self-organization include the initial structure of the elements of the system (including their mechanisms of interaction).
 
p.195 cascading constraints are both product and source of the specificity that crystallizes within individual developmental paths. Because they are partially indeterminate yet guide further growth, cascading constraints reflect one kind of relation between indeterminism and determinism: the using up of indeterminacy as developmental paths consolidate.
    Cascading, emergent constraints are the very stuff of developmental self-organization: steps on the path from variability to specificity... As emphasized by Fogel (1993), indeterminism works hand in hand with determinism to shape every developmental outcome.
 
p.198 indeterminism really does play a large part in individual outcomes, and needs to be understood rather than ignored.
    From a dynamic systems point of view, indeterminism is the necessary starting point for the emergence of structure in development and the emergence of coherent behavior in any given situation.
 
p.212-213 All of these examples of cascading constraints reflect movement from indeterminacy to determinacy in development. But what is the role of pre-specified constraints in the process of self-organization? ...Individual development flows from indeterminacy to determinacy without ever getting there. This progression reflects a very general characteristic of self-organization: the movement from uncertain beginnings to highly specific outcomes that are never fully predictable, in all processes of change in complex living systems.
 
p.218 Cognitive mechanisms were developed as a response to the need for building models and theories capable of predicting the outcome of events important to human life, and also as a means of identifying procedures capable of interacting with such events in a favorable way and with minimal effort (see Waddington, 1970). To achieve such goals, one must know two things about a given phenomenon: how it happens and why it happens... the adequate description of a phenomenon, essentially permits predictability. Forecasts and decisions based on such information makes it possible to steer ones actions toward the most favorable aspects of an event and to prepare for, or sidestep, the unfavorable ones... The knowledge of the effect of causal mechanisms and the way in which they work allows one to effectively influence the very core of the event in question, which leads to an active transformation of reality
 
p.220 A cause is something that, by itself or in association with other causes, produces a new result, from then on called an "effect," which is a consequence of it. Causes themselves may be the effects of other causes. the existence of a cause means that there necessarily must be an effect, and the existence of an effect means that there necessarily must be a cause, otherwise, the words cause and effect should not be used.
 
p.223 Weak determinism is the belief that, within certain bounds or limits, it is possible for one to predict the outcome of a situation based on knowledge of present or past circumstances.
 
p.229 Initially, perception, the most simple and vital cognitive structure of all, is the only cognitive structure in existence... However, ever-changing and continuously interacting internal needs and environmental variables soon render perceptual activity alone an inadequate mental approach to need satisfaction. Unsatiated needs tend to increase the infant's general level of activity, generating... "exploratory' behavior... This process... eventually stumbles on perceptual strategies"

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