Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

It's Not Luck (Goldratt, 1994)

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The Case for Using Probabilistic Knowledge in a Computer Chess Program (John L. Jerz)
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Sequel to The Goal

INLGoldratt.jpg

 Great human relations techniques!, February 26, 1997
Review By A Customer
 
While I enjoyed "The Goal", Goldratt's latest, "It's Not Luck" was hard to put down! Alex Rogo saved the day again, or more specifically saved his companies again, and once again Goldratt told his story in a manner that mixed fiction with solid business and human-relations principles. I am a marketing and business consultant, and after reading this book, I immediately declared it required reading for the executives and key-man employees of each company I am working with. Without exception it met with rave reviews. One of the managers, wife and half-owner of a manufacturing facility, made some major changes in company policies and used the techniques in this book to present these changes to the employees of the company. The rationale behind every single change was easily understood by even the most under-educated employee, and met with virtually no resistance! Revenues the following month increased by 150% and everyone employed by this company felt more rewarded, and more prideful, by their own contribution to the production process than ever before. Needless to say, this company rewarded me with a liberal bonus just for introducing them to this book! On the homefront, I have found several opportunities to use Alex Rogo's techniques to negotiate conflicts with my children, to the mutual satisfaction of all: a rarity indeed
 
[JLJ - A tale of the consultant, and the world he faces in wrestling with the intense problems of the business world. Perhaps this marketing tool for the Goldratt institute can help you strategize as you make decisions and plans for the problems you face daily. Goldratt demonstrates the practical use of the 'Theory of Constraints' tools he has developed. Read this book rather than 'The Goal'.]

p.110 "It seems as if you and your people have a method, a system enabling you to break free from common practices."
  "Thinking Processes that enable constructing and communicating common sense," I heard myself repeat Jonah's words.
 
p.112 "The next step," I confidently say, "is to find a cause and effect relationship between at least two of the undesirable effects that we listed." ... "I prefer to call UnDesirable Effects, UDEs, like cooties. Somehow it describes them better."
 
p.122 "So, what is the problem? UDE number one should appear both at the top and the bottom. It's in a loop where it feeds itself." I calmly say.
  "But if something feeds itself," Brandon tries to digest the idea, "if there is a loop, then the effects should become bigger and bigger."
 
p.125,127 "... As I already said, your system requires a change in the way [manufacturing] plants are internally measured. It's not easy to get a consensus for such a change."
 
p.164 I add another objective, "Have an apparent, dominant, competitive edge."
 
p.171 "Yes, of course," Brandon says. "I have always claimed that dealing with symptoms is ineffective. We should aim at the root causes."
  "Not enough." I have to make sure they see how it really fits together. "Root causes are not enough for me. We should try to correct a core problem, one that is responsible not just for one or two UDEs, but for a whole gamut."
  "I see," says Jim. "And you seem to have the perfect tool to do it. The Current Reality Tree. You demonstrated to us that you can start with a list of seemingly unconnected UDEs and end up with a core problem. What a demonstration. I'll never forget it."
 
p.172 "Right. So, you are going to take the UDEs of your markets, build a Current Reality Tree, and through it identify a deep enough problem." Jim stops and gives me a questioning look.
  I nod approval, and he continues, "Then you are going to see what changes you have to make, not to the physical product, but to the offering as a whole, so that you are better addressing a deep problem of the market. This is intriguing."
  "Intriguing? It's ingenious," Brandon slaps the table with approval.
 
p.236 "Alex, will you please start to address the real obstacles..."
 
p.237 "... In my position I must deliver results, not excuses. Just results, nothing else counts."
 
p.237-38,240 What's the next step? The obvious. We all know that when the objective is ambitious it stands to reason that the plan to achieve it will contain several intermediate objectives. Where are the intermediate objectives coming from? The only reason for an intermediate objective is to overcome an obstacle that stands in the way of reaching the desired end objective. There is no other reason.
  Therefore for each obstacle on our list we have to figure out the corresponding intermediate objective; the thing that if we achieve it the obstacle will be overcome... We have to figure out which intermediate objectives we can achieve in parallel, which only sequentially.
 
p.271 I continue. "Choosing a goal is not so simple. We can't talk about a goal in isolation. We have to work within some frame of limitations. It's futile to define a goal without defining the boundaries within which we can attempt to reach it."
  "A goal does not justify the means," Brandon agrees. "So what you're saying is that together with defining a goal, we also have to determine the necessary conditions that we are not allowed to violate.."
 
p.274-276 "Do you agree that strategy is the direction we take to reach our goal?"
  "Naturally," he agrees...
  "I haven't finished telling you what I think should not be done. We shouldn't ever build a strategy based on a market forecast... For decades we've tried to forecast sales. Did we ever succeed?  ... I'd start with developing a decisive competitive edge... I'd... [c]oncentrate on small changes that eliminate the negatives for the market... the competitors will catch up," I explain. "There is no absolute competitive edge, it's just a window of opportunity, which will be closed."
  "So what you're saying is that we must be always on the move," Jim concludes.
  "Of course."
 
p.281-282 "..But with a correct strategy, I can prevent the market of my company from dropping to the extent that there is not sufficient work for all my employees."
  "How can you achieve this miracle?"
  "Simple. By creating enough flexibility. One precaution is to make sure that every employee is serving not just one segment of the market, but many segments. Do you agree that if I plan my actions carefully it's possible? ... To accomplish flexibility of the work force, you have to segment your market and not your work force... when a lucrative segment is up, the company shifts their focus away from some less lucrative segments. They can do it because their resources are flexible..."

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