p.20 Every decision involves trade-offs. Decision making is essentially the process of accepting
less of something to get more of something else.
p.58 When we intuitively solve dynamic decision problems, we do so by using simplifying heuristics.
p.97 In predictable environments, human pattern matching works great, by virtue of history repeating itself.
In unpredictable environments, however, it falls apart... Models are particularly useful in more unpredictable environments.
p.128-129 The new tools and approaches discussed are leading to a model of decision making focused
on options and flexibility rather than on the precise evaluation of choice alternatives. In essence, the
decision maker is preparing to make correct choices in the future rather than on nailing down the decision in advance.
There are three basic ingredients to this new approach, sharing a common thread that emphasizes shaping
the conditions for choice before the precise decision context is fully known...
- Building the information base... The use of data warehousing and data mining...
together with powerful evaluation vehicles... provide the basis for a much richer and more precise informational base for
decisions.
- Identifying constraints... today's decisions are directed at assuring a rich menu
of possibilities for tomorrow's decisions. This is reflected... in investments to assure a proper constraint set and a reasonable
information base for future decisions.
- Strengthening organizational capabilities... managers need powerful decision support
and data management tools to function adequately
p.248 Utility is a quantitative measure of the extent to which our values have been honored,
which allows their effects to be compared on a single common scale. It is a measure of goodness.... When
faced with a particular decision, we are called upon to figure out what general values are implicated and then weigh these
values to maximize utility.
