p.5 The main object of this book is to describe ways to predict so that the results will be worth
the effort... it is widely felt that to lead almost any operation competently, multiple levels of forecasting effort
are mandatory. Decision makers, it is believed, must prepare for future developments and not merely plan to respond when they
arrive. Foresight is expected to be accompanied by appropriate advance action to maximize the positive and minimize
the negative of the earlier conceived future occurrences.
p.6 [Nassim Nicholas] Taleb has written, "Knowing that you cannot predict does not mean that you
cannot benefit from unpredictability."
p.8 We guess, however, that much of what we shall describe as intelligent approaches to envisage future
developments will apply regardless of the fields of endeavor... we suspect you will find it advisable to try to prepare
ahead for what might happen in the future by thoughtfully imagining possibilities and using that insight to produce superior
future outcomes.
p.11 In this book we will present procedures that have worked well for us in making useful predictions.
p.43 if near-term [forecasting] efforts are poorly performed, then it is likely that some of the reasons
for the unsatisfactory results will carry over into attempts at making long-range forecasts.
p.45 Let us suppose that you... are engaged in what you hope will be intelligent forecasting. Your aim is
to spot major developments in the future and then to act early so as to shape that future. But this does not mean you should
rush to paint a picture of the period ahead. Something else should come first. You should assemble possibilities.
For that process, you must be generously inclusive. You should seek a broad perception of conceivable - and perhaps
sometimes even seemingly rather improbable - coming happenings.
p.65 Steps must be taken ahead of time to maximize emerging opportunities and minimize the perceived
negatives of coming developments - that is, to shape the future. To accomplish this in an intelligent way, we
must continuously imagine possibilities for the period ahead and rate each possibility as to the following:
1. Probability of its occurrence
2. Timing of its occurrence
3. Its impact (for good or bad) on the predictor's activity
4. The capability to improve the future by taking action ahead of time.
Predictors should give priority to those possibilities with the apparent highest total ratings.
p.81 We emphasize again that for success in creating useful predictions, the best beginning is to
list future possibilities... There are many other generators of valuable possibilities.
p.85 In summary, predictors of long-term, broad developments in society must steadily ask themselves: What
critical needed elements appear unavailable today that, if they were to suddenly appear, would make an enormous difference?
Why have they not yet surfaced? What holds them up? What would have to change so those missing links would emerge? What might
then happen? What can we do to accelerate the process? And, finally, are possibilities on this front worth listing as we try
to predict and shape the future?
p.106-107 At the outset it is necessary to accept that the external phenomena bearing upon your
activity and demanding consideration will not consist of a single issue, but rather of many. And, as to how these
issues tie into your activity, most often that connection will be broad, indirect, and subtle... To make matters more perplexing,
these many separate contributing factors are not always measurable, and sometimes they are not even clearly defined. It is
thus exceedingly difficult to pin down the potencies of their influences so as to gauge the extent to which they will participate
in determining the future you are anxious to shape.
Finally, those externalities generally interact with each other, one affecting the characteristics
and status of another with their interrelationships usually far from clear... The just described complexity
of external phenomena, when we try to include them in our forecasting, naturally can lead to wrong forecasts... No
expert will be skilled enough to produce a record of consistently accurate predictions... To obtain something valuable from
prediction exercises despite this complexity is a challenge.
p.110-112 Forecasting the future for any activity goes hand-in-hand, of course, with planning for that activity...
External issues routinely should be scanned quickly to try to catch some severe potential influence on your activity. In view
of the complexity that stands in the way of accurate assessment, it is usually best, however, to ignore equally quickly those
observed externalities where no important connection is seen to be likely... Limit your efforts at prediction to those
externalities whose effects seem most likely to impact your activity. Be willing to gamble on devoting less attention to those
phenomena where you anticipate the least influence on your operations
p.201-202 Predicting the future with high accuracy is virtually impossible. But strategic forecasting
is mandatory for sound business management... The value of strategic forecasting will be set not only by the degree
of a business management's understanding of its specific area but also by the occurrences in the outside world. The forecasting
effort hence must include surveying - however unrealistically or incompletely - such Big Externalities.
