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Competition (Case, 2007)
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The Case for Using Probabilistic Knowledge in a Computer Chess Program (John L. Jerz)
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The birth of a new science

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3.0 out of 5 stars Nice discussion but not sufficiently compelling, December 4, 2007
By  J. Bocanegra "windcarrier" (Texas)
 
Interesting empirical findings and theoretical arguments but not compelling enough to revolutionize microeconomic theory, offering a useful supplement to mainstream economic theories, pointing out the well-known limitations of competition in particular and rational-actor models in economics in general. It does a fine job pointing out anomalous distortions in various market outcomes but not in explaining them well. The book carries scant predictive weight and offers either ambivalent or erroneous policy prescriptions, leaving many more questions unanswered than did the neoclassical paradigm. It did not actually change my mind on issues. For example, I supported free trade prior to reading this book and still support free trade after reading it, and the existing serious research on this topic confirms that the net impact of free trade for the peoples of nations is positive and beneficial, even though there are "losers" who will be worst off - but excessive protectionist support to the "losers" is inefficient, very costly, and ultimately futile. Still, competition can produce perverse outcomes: for instance, although deregulation has been more beneficial than harmful (e.g lower prices, increased access to air travel to more people), the greater competition it has generally helped to foment has led to tighter markets in which shocks to production costs (e.g. rising fuel costs) cannot be easily passed onto air-travel consumers, so increased production costs have to be paid for through other means, such as reduced amenities (e.g. meals, leg-room) for lower-price consumers, longer wait times in ticket lines, baggage delays, increased congestion, etc. - the problems air-traveling folks have been recently complaining about. In the end, the book reluctantly understands that the benefits from competition (and I would say rational-actor modeling of mainstream economics) exceed its costs.

p.18 Jack Welch - the legendary CEO of General Electric - summarizes Clausewitz's message to the business community as follows:
Von Clausewitz summed up what it [his military career] had all been about in his classic On War. Men could not reduce strategy to a formula. Detailed planning necessarily failed, due to the inevitable frictions encountered: chance events, imperfections in execution... Instead, the human elements were paramount: leadership, morale, and the almost instinctive savvy of the best generals.
  The Prussian general staff, under the elder von Moltke, perfected these concepts in practice. They did not expect a plan of operations to survive beyond the first contact with the enemy. They set only the broadest of objectives and emphasized seizing unforeseen opportunities as they arose. Strategy was not a lengthy action plan. It was the evolution of a central idea through continually changing circumstances.
 
p.20 A good marketing strategy, say Ries and Trout, is "one that anticipates the competitor's counterattack."
 
p.28 As its name implies, game theory is but a theory - or collection of theories - about events involving conflict. It can therefore constitute no more than the theoretical branch of an actual or potential science of those events.
 
p.29 In isolation, neither fact-finding nor armchair philosophy has ever accomplished much. In combination, however, the two have generated more than four centuries of steadily increasing scientific progress.
 
p.30 For the purposes of this book, the words "game" and "competition" will be used interchangeably."
 
p.33 There is a simple step-by-step process for identifying at least tentative solutions of tree games. It works by asking what it is worth to the several players to have the token at rest on a particular node. The answer is called the value of that node.
 
p.45 If game-playing programs were books, state-of-the-art scoring systems would occupy the most important chapters.
 
p.49 Imperfect information is the rule rather than the exception in the more common forms of high-stakes competition... Participants in almost all forms of competition are regularly required to make decisions based on an incomplete or unreliable knowledge of the facts.
 
p.52 Perhaps the most remarkable thing about the modeling process - amply reflected in the annals of the MCM [JLJ -Mathematical Contest in Modeling, a competition involving teams of students] - is the variety of models that can shed light on a single practical problem. Every veteran judge of the contest (the author included) can recall models of which he or she would never have thought, yet which permitted less than obvious relevant mathematical methods to be brought to bear on the problem at hand... More often than not, however, quite different models yield similar conclusions concerning the practical problem at hand, so that each confirms the validity of the other.
 
p.69-70 The tree games of Chapter 3 furnish a remarkably adaptable model, or paradigm, for strategic competition... The bottom line would seem to be that models play an increasingly conspicuous role in science, and that von Neumann, Morgenstern, and Kuhn made possible a science of competition by furnishing a surpassingly versatile model for the purpose... no one has yet identified a form of competition to which that model cannot - with suitable modification - be made to apply.
 
p.135 Estimation is easy when independent estimates of the same unknown quantity tend to agree. Otherwise, estimation is difficult.
 
p.252 System Dynamics is a grab bag of computer-friendly techniques for modeling virtually any system that undergoes change.
 
p.254, 256 Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is among the newest economic methods... ACE is a technique for analyzing the interactions of... agents in environments containing many of them and in which a variety of distinct opposing strategies may well be present.
 
p.276 A sound strategy must thrive not only against others like itself but in an environment in which all manner of other strategies are in use.
 
p.319 Anyone who observes the same natural phenomena day after day, such as the ebb and flow of the tides or the barking of dogs in a village street, will begin to develop ideas about them. Try it and see. There's nothing scientific about having ideas. Everyone does that. Science, said [Richard] Feynman, begins when somebody figures out a way to test an idea to see if it works or not.

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