xvii This book is about a new mode of seeing, doing, and being in the world; a way of thinking
through chaos and complexity. It is not another "how to" book... The book, nevertheless, speaks to everyone
for whom the joy of thinking is still alive and kicking and whose enthusiasm to entertain exciting but unfamiliar conceptions
is not yet exhausted.
xvii In a nutshell, [this] book is about systems. The imperatives of interdependency, the
necessity of reducing endless complexities, and the need to produce manageable simplicities require a workable systems
methodology and a holistic frame of reference that will allow us to focus on the relevant issues and avoid the endless search
for more details while drowning in proliferating useless information.
p.6 the likelihood that an organization will fail to respond to a critical technological breakthrough
is directly proportional to the level of success it had achieved in a previously dominant technology.
p.8 Competitive advantage is increasingly shifting away from having access to information
toward generating knowledge and, finally, toward gaining understanding.
p.13,15-16 Classical science is preoccupied with independent variables. It assumes that the whole
is nothing but the sum of the parts. Accordingly, to understand the behavior of a system we need only to address the impact
that each independent variable has on that system...
Handling independent variables is the essence of analytical thinking... However, increasingly
we are finding out that our independent variables are no longer independent and that the neat and simple construct that served
us so beautifully in the past is no longer effective... An independent set of variables is, therefore, a special
case of a more general scheme of interdependency... Understanding interdependency requires a way of thinking
different from analysis; it requires systems thinking. And analytical thinking and systems thinking are quite distinct.
Analysis is a three-step thought process. First, it takes apart that which it seeks to understand. Then it attempts to explain
the behavior of the parts taken separately. Finally, it tries to aggregate understanding of the parts into an explanation
of the whole. Systems thinking uses a different process. It puts the system in the context of the larger environment
of which it is a part and studies the role it plays in the larger whole.
p.32 Slowly, we are realizing that we do not actually control much of anything, but do have the
ability to influence many things.
p.33 If there once was a time when having information about clients was a competitive advantage, it isn't
so nowadays. To maintain competitive position one must move to a new plateau, the knowledge level, and learn how clients do
what they do. Thereafter, to be an effective player, one has to move yet higher, to the level of understanding, and learn
why they do what they do.
p.46 Emergent, or type II, properties are the properties of the whole... they are
a product of the interactions, not a sum of the actions of the parts, and therefore have to be understood on their
own terms... Emergent properties, by their nature, cannot be analyzed, they cannot be manipulated by analytical tools,
and they do not yield to causal explanations... emergent properties are the product of interactions among several
elements. The mere notion of interaction signifies a dynamic process producing a time-dependent state.
p.47 If emergent properties are the spontaneous outcome of ongoing processes, then to understand
them one has to understand the processes that generate them... If success is an emergent property, then it has to
be about managing interactions rather than actions... The compatibility between the parts and the reinforcing mutual interactions
creates a resonance, a force, which will be an order of magnitude higher than the sum of the forces generated by the separate
parts. On the other hand, incompatibility among the parts will result in a less potent force than what the aggregate would
have been able to produce.
p.47,48 We have said that emergent properties cannot be measured directly; one can measure only their manifestations.
However, measuring the manifestation of a phenomenon has proven very problematic... manifestation of a phenomenon in its totality
can be assessed only by picturing the future implicit in its present behavior... Instead of trying to describe a property
only in terms of being, we can also try to understand it as a process of becoming.
p.50 understanding the short- and long-term consequences of an action, in its totality, requires
building a dynamic model to simulate the multi-loop, nonlinear nature of the system. The model should capture
the critical time lags and relevant interactions among major variables.
p.51 Analyzing the behavior of a nonlinear system is like walking through a maze whose walls rearrange themselves
with each step you take
p.53 One can never overestimate the resistance to change... A level of comfort with the familiar, combined
with a fear of the unknown, creates a formidable force that may even override potential self-interest... any suggestions for
a fundamental change become potentially self-destructive propositions. The fool who chooses to take on this role should be
aware of his/her eventual loneliness.
p.60 to design a throughput system, we need to:
- Know the state of the art, as well as the availability and feasibility of alternative technologies and their
relevance to the emerging competitive game.
- Understand the flow, the interface between active elements, and how the coupling function works.
- Appreciate the dynamics of the system - the time cycle, buffers, delays, queues, bottlenecks, and feedback
loops.
- Handle the interdependencies among critical variables, plus deal with open and closed loops, structural imperatives,
and system constraints.
- Have an operational knowledge of throughput accounting, target costing, and variable budgeting.
p.73 Decision criteria define the rules of decisionmaking; whereas, decisions themselves are applications
of the decision rule to specific situations... Decision criteria can be grouped into two categories: policies and procedures.
A policy is a decision criteria at a higher level of abstraction... Policy decisions are value-loaded choices...
Procedures, on the other hand, are derived from policies. They deal with "how" questions. They should specify the
method or the model to be used for applying policies to specific situations.
p.77 A learning system will be most effective if it includes an early warning system that calls
for corrective action before the problem has occurred. Such a system will continuously monitor the validity of the
assumptions on which the decision was made, as well as the implementation process and intermediate results.
An integral part of a learning and control function is a measurement system. Winning is fun. To win
we have to keep score, and the way we keep the score defines the game.
p.83 What characterizes a social system are not only its members, but also the relationship of its members
to one another and to the whole. This is, of course, implicit in the definition of a system.
p.94 Desire is produced by an exciting vision of a future enhanced by the interaction of creative and recreative
processes... Ability... is the potential for controlling, influencing, and appreciating the parameters that affect the system's
existence... To understand the process of development of a social system, we have to deal with structures and the processes
that help or limit the creation of collective desire and ability for the pursuit of its ends.
p.107 we see the world as increasingly more complex and chaotic because we use inadequate concepts to explain
it. When we understand something, we no longer see it as chaotic or complex. An effective systems methodology
would deal not only with the imperative of interdependency and the complexities of self-organizing systems, but also with
the question of purposeful behavior of multi-minded systems. Unless we understand the implications of self-organizing
purposeful behavior, the multi-minded beast will out-maneuver any attempt to tame it.
p.108,110 The distinction of systems thinking is its focus on the whole... However, I contend that
seeing the whole requires understanding structure, function, and process at the same time. They represent
three aspects of the same thing and, with the containing environment, form a complementary set. Therefore, structure,
function, and process with the context, define the whole or make the understanding of the whole possible. Structure
defines components and their relationships; function defines the outcomes or results produced; process
explicitly defines the sequence of activities and the know-how required to produce the outcome; content defines
the unique environment in which the system is situated.
p.112 Iteration is the key for understanding complexity. Stephen Wolfram (2002) [A New
Kind of Science] demonstrates how an iterative process of applying simple rules is at the core of nature's mysterious ability
to produce complex phenomena so effortlessly.
p.117 Please note that by combining a few simple and ordinary phenomenon [in the model we are creating]
we have managed to create a "multi-loop nonlinear feedback system." ... The point to
emphasize is that the interaction of counteracting feedback loops - the prime source for generating chaos and complexity -
is a common phenomenon in our daily life. Understanding these dynamics is the key to getting a handle on the notion
of complexity, interdependency and counter-intuitive behavior of social systems.
p.117-118 Barry Richmond... defines thinking as two activities: constructing mental models and simulating
them in order to draw conclusions and make decisions.
p.118 Operational Thinking is an ingenious way to overcome the difficulties encountered in constructing
and simulating complex mental models.
p.118-119 Remember that to map the dynamic behavior of a system is to capture the interaction of
positive and negative feedback loops. These interactions, in essence, define the interdependencies, which in turn
are responsible for non-linearity in the system. It is the interdependency that poses a major challenge to our cognitive
abilities. It is a challenge that we need to overcome by using operational modeling.
p.125 The best way to learn and understand a system is to re-design it... Performance
of a system is essentially design-driven. An order of magnitude improvement requires a redesign.
p.126 The separation of defining problems from designing solutions is a unique characteristic of interactive
design. According to Ackoff, "We fail more often not because we fail to solve the problems we face, but because we
fail to face the right problem." We have been taught how to solve problems, but never how to define one.
p.131 Misconceptions about reality display self-fulfilling qualities. Unless uncovered and dismantled,
they outmaneuver and outlive assaults aimed at uprooting them.
p.137,140 To map the mess, we need to underscore the nature of interdependency and the dynamics
of the situation... Mapping the mess is the heuristic process of defining essential characteristics and the
emergent property of the mess. It involves finding the "second-order machine" residing within the system... Mess
is not a prediction; it is an early warning system.
p.141-142 Once we know where the long-term consequences of our actions are taking us, we are likely
to make the commitment to take the necessary measures and act preventively. The systemic properties of the mess are
the unintended consequence of the past success.
p.160 In an unpredictable, turbulent environment, the viability of any [business architecture] design will
depend on its capacity to explore and exploit emerging opportunities all along the value chain. These opportunities, which
emerge out of interactions among technology, product, and markets, remain inaccessible to unidimensional cultures and architecture.
p.164 The viability of any organization depends on its ability to actively adapt to the changing
requirements of the emerging competitive game. The ability to adapt requires some form of flexibility and
responsiveness, which in turn demands that some degree of redundancy be built into the system.
[Conclusion]
p.315 there is tremendous power in the idea of holistic iterative thinking. To internalize
it, you must make it your own. This means that you should: 1) make notes of the major points that were of interest to you;
2) repeat the main arguments to yourself in your own language; and 3) share them with others. The best way of learning is
teaching.
p.315 Systems thinking is the art of simplifying complexity. It is about seeing through
chaos, managing interdependency, and understanding choice... When we understand something, we no longer see it as
chaotic or complex... To understand complexity, one needs to discover the underlying rhythm, the order by
which things repeat themselves.
p.316 To design a solution, start with an exciting vision of the future that you are capable of
producing and then work backward to the existing system.
