p.40 The dynamics inherent in systems make it important to understand developmental tendencies. We
cannot content ourselves with observing and analyzing situations at any single moment but must instead try to determine where
the whole system is heading over time. For many people this proves to be an extremely difficult task.
p.41 If we want to operate within a complex and dynamic system, we have to know not only what its
current state is but what its status will be or could be in the future, and we have to know how certain actions we take will
influence the situation. For this, we need 'structural knowledge,' knowledge of how the variables in the
system are related and how they influence one another... The totality of such assumptions in an individual's mind
- assumptions about the simple or complex links and the one-way or reciprocal influences between variables - constitute that
individual's 'reality model.'
p.43-46 Defining goals is the first step in dealing with a complex problem, for it is not immediately
obvious in every situation what it is we really want to achieve... We need to have clear goals in mind before we
start forming judgments and arriving at decisions, however... Developing a model and gathering information follow the statement
of goals... We need, of course, to do more with information than simply gather it. We need to arrange it into an overall
picture, a model of the reality we are dealing with... We need a cohesive picture that lets us determine
what is important and what is unimportant, what belongs together and what does not - in short, that tells us what
our information means. This kind of 'structural knowledge' will allow us to find order in apparent chaos.
Prognosis and extrapolation is the third step... what can we expect to happen next... our next step is to consider measures
to achieve our goals. What should we do? ... Recognizing the strategy appropriate to a particular situation - whether methodism
or experimentation or some hybrid of the two - will help us plan more effectively. Decisions follow planning... Action follows
decision. Plans must be translated into reality.
p.61 Other problems that go unnoticed are those that start small, presaged only by minute signs, but develop
with increasing speed. Unless we anticipate such problems, they will take us by surprise, appearing to explode out of nowhere.
We should therefore take the future into account when dealing with dynamic systems.
p.63 It is essential when working with a complex, dynamic system to develop at least a provisional picture
of the partial goals we want to achieve, for that will clarify what we need to do when.
p.79 To deal effectively with a system:
- We need to know on what other variables the goal variables that we want to influence depend. We need to understand,
in other words, how the causal relationships among the variables in a system work together in that system.
- We need to know how the individual components of a system fit into a hierarchy of broad and narrow concepts.
This can help us fill in by analogy those parts of a structure unfamiliar to us.
- We need to know the component parts into which the elements of a system can be broken and the larger complexes
in which those elements are embedded. We need to know this so that we can proposes hypotheses about previously unrecognized
interactions between variables.
p.94 The ability to identify common characteristics in only a few examples of a certain type of thing and
then to formulate an abstract concept on that basis is very useful, and without this ability we would be overwhelmed by the
variety of phenomenon we encounter. We need an abstract 'chair' that lets us ignore the color of the slipcover, the fabric
of the upholstery, what the legs are made of, and so forth, and judge the 'chair-ness' of an object only on the basis of whether
it has four legs, a surface to sit on, and a backrest, all in the proper proportions and relationships... Essential as it
is to put aside 'unimportant' features and to stress 'important' ones in formulating classes, the dangers of this intellectual
operation are great. A necessary generalization can easily evolve into an overgeneralization. And as a rule we have no opportunity
to test in advance whether a concept we have developed has struck just the right degree of abstraction or is an overgeneralization.
p.109 Because we are constantly presented with whole spatial configurations, we readily think in such terms...
By contrast, we often overlook time configurations and treat successive steps in a temporal development as individual events...
Even when we think in terms of time configurations, our intuition is very limited. In particular, our ability to guess at
missing pieces (in this case, future developments) is much less than for space configurations... we seem to rely on only a
few mechanisms of prognostication to gain insight into the future.
p.111 And then there is the story about the inventor of chess and his master, who was an Indian king. After
the inventor had presented the game, the king condescendingly promised the man a reward. The good fellow could select any
item he like from the king's treasury. The inventor was annoyed at the king's patronizing reception of his achievement, and
devised a subtle revenge. He asked for a very modest reward... All he asked was a little rice - once grain for the first square
of the chessboard, two for the second, four for the third, eight for the fourth, and so on for all the squares of the board.
The king, delighted to get off so cheap and laughing up his sleeve at the stupidity of the inventor, called for a bowl of
rice. It soon became obvious that the bowl contained far from enough rice. And after a few calculations made by the court
mathematician soon revealed that the inventor's 'very modest' request could not be met. For the last square alone, 2 [to the
power of] 63 gains of rice would be needed, that is, about 9,223,372,036,000,000,000
grains. That amounts to about 153 billion tons of rice... the king... was clearly not able to recognize the features of a
certain kind of development - exponential growth.
p.152 The solution is nothing arcane. All it requires is keeping
a few utterly simple rules in mind: Try to understand the internal dynamics of the process. Make notes on those dynamics
so that you can take past events into account and not be at the mercy of the present moment. Try to anticipate what
will happen.
p.162 In planning, as in information gathering, we are faced with the problem of scale. We can make plans
that are too crude and plans that are too detailed. The trick is to plan with an appropriate degree of detail. But
what is appropriate?
p.189-190 We don't think about problems we don't have. Why, indeed should we? In
solving problems that involve complex dynamic realities, however, we must think about problems we may not have at the moment
but that may emerge as side effects of our actions.
p.198 We human beings are creatures of the present. But in the world of today we must learn to think
in temporal configurations. We must learn that there is a time lag between the execution of a measure and its effect.
We must learn to recognize 'shapes' in time. We must learn that events have not only their immediate
visible effects but long-term repercussions as well. We also must learn to think in terms of systems. We must
learn that in complex systems we cannot do only one thing. Whether we want it to or not, any step we take will affect many
other things. We must learn to cope with side effects. We must understand that the effects of our decisions may turn up in
places we never expected to see them surface.
