Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

Measurement in the Social Sciences (Zeller, Carmines, 1980)
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The Link Between Theory and Data

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This textbook is designed to bridge the gap between the theorist and the methodologist by presenting an integrated approach to measurement. By differentiating between random and systematic error, it conveys both statistical techniques and their theoretical underpinnings essential to students of sociology and political science. Rather than developing new technical methods of new theoretical structures, Professors Zeller and Carmines provide thorough explanations of the assumptions, limitations and interpretations of previously established techniques and theories. Written at a level accessible to students of social science with some statistical training, the book does not presume a sophisticated mathematical background. By concentrating on synthesizing the methodological and theoretical realms, Zeller and Carmines demonstrate why measurement considerations are important to research and how measurement principles can be most effectively applied.
 
[JLJ - the concepts of measurement in this work can be applied directly to game theory. A machine playing a game needs a sophisticated method to determine which moves are promising, and needs to steer search efforts (through an exponentially growing tree of possibilities) by identifying and considering the moves that are promising (for probing the future with specific sequences of moves) and the positions that are resilient (for rebounding and maneuvering in an unknown future).]

Preface In order to assess the reliability and especially the validity of social measures, we formulate a strategy based on the integration of evidence from factor analysis and construct validation... Our ultimate purpose is to convey the logic underlying this measurement strategy and, more generally, to sensitize researchers to the multiple sources of nonrandom measurement error that probably influence data in the social sciences.
 
p.1 The link between observation and formulation is one of the most difficult and crucial of the scientific enterprises. It is the process of interpreting our theory or, as some say, of "operationalizing our concepts." Our creations in the world of possibility must be fitted in the world of probability; in Kant's epigram, "Concepts without percepts are empty." It is also the process of relating our observations to theory; to finish the epigram, "Percepts without concepts are blind."  Scott Greer (1969: 160)"
 
p.1 The importance of measurement to social research is well stated in an observation by Hauser (1969:127-9): "I should like to venture the judgment that it is inadequate measurement, more than inadequate concept or hypothesis, that has plagued social researchers and prevented fuller explanations of the variances with which they are confounded."
 
p.2 measurement serves a vital theoretical purpose, as aptly described by Blalock (1970:88-9): "Measurement considerations often enable us to clarify our theoretical thinking and to suggest new variables that should be considered. It is often thought, prior to actual attempts at measurement, that we really understand the nature of a phenomenon because we have experienced it directly... Careful attention to measurement may force a clarification of one's basic concepts and theories.
 
p.2 The purpose of this book is to explicate an approach to measurement that focuses on the theoretical as well as the empirical components of the measurement process. Stated more fully, our purpose is to introduce, justify, and illustrate a systematic and integrated approach to measurement in the social sciences.
 
p.2 Following Blalock, we define measurement as the process of linking abstract concepts to empirical indicants.
 
p.2-3 Stated somewhat differently, measurement has been defined as "the process that permits the social scientist to move from the realm of abstract, indirectly observable concepts and theories into the world of sense experience." (McGaw and Watson, 1976:205).
 
p.3 Abstract concepts do not have a one-to-one correspondence with empirical indicants; they can be operationalized and measured in an almost infinite variety of ways... The point is that abstract concepts can only be approximated by empirical indicants. Indeed, it is the very vagueness, complexity, and suggestiveness of concepts that allow them to be empirically referenced with varying degrees of success at different times and places... However, because concepts can be neither directly observed nor measured, the systematic exploration, testing and evaluation of social theory requires social scientists to use empirical indicants, designed to represent given abstract concepts. Thus, in contrast to concepts, empirical indicants are designed to be as specific, as exact, and as bounded as theoretical formulations and research settings will allow. Indicants, in other words, are intended to approximate and locate concepts empirically... Any particular set of empirical indicants that one chooses, therefore, is only a small subset of an almost infinite number of possible indicants that could be selected to represent a particular concept.
 
p.4 From this discussion, it is not difficult to see that both abstract concepts and empirical indicants are necessary if a worthwhile social science is to thrive and develop... By providing an accurate representation of concepts, empirical indicants contribute to the theoretical development of the social sciences by highlighting those gaps that exist between theoretical formulations and observed reality.
 
p.6 we will argue that the ultimate success of social science research depends strategically on how accurately theoretical concepts are measured. Viewed from this perspective, measurement is not an esoteric concern unrelated to the central issues of the social sciences but instead is woven into the very fabric of social research.
 
p.6-7 Two key terms, reliability and validity, provide the essential language of measurement... "Reliability concerns the extent to which measurements are repeatable" ... "In a very general sense, a measuring instrument is valid if it does what it is intended to do."  Consequently, if a set of indicants were perfectly valid, it would represent the intended - and only the intended - concept. A less than perfectly valid measure, conversely, would imply that it does not fully represent the concept or that it represents something other than the concept.
  From this discussion, it is easy to see that validity is more important than reliability... to have a valid measure, one must have a reliable one
 
p.7 Classical test theory begins with the basic formulation that an observed score, X, is equal to the true score, T, plus a measurement error, e. To state this idea as a formula:
  X = T + e
 
p.8 From these assumptions, it follows that the expected (mean) value of the observed score is equal to the expected (mean) value of the true score. In formula form,
  E(X) = E(T)  [JLJ - this would be a good way to calibrate any evaluation method for a machine playing a game.]
 
p.12 In our reformulation of classical test theory, an observed score, X, is equal to the true score, T, plus systematic measurement error, S, plus random measurement error, R. In formula form,
  X = T + S + R  
 
p.13 Heise (1974:9) notes:
There is no purely mechanical procedure for identifying latent variables with guaranteed theoretical validity
 
p.13 although one cannot observe a concept, systematic error, or their covariance directly (because they are, in principle, unobservable), one can estimate these variances and covariances if one is willing to make informed, reasonable assumptions about the nature of the phenomena underlying a set of indicants.
 
p.14 validity is the degree to which a set of indicants measures the concept it is intended to measure.
 
p.80 Predictive validity, on the other hand, concerns a future criterion that is correlated with the relevant measure. Tests used for selection purposes in different occupations are, by nature, concerned with predictive validity. Thus, a test used to screen applicants for police work could be validated by correlating their test scores with future performance in fulfilling the duties and responsibilities associated with police work.

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