Abstract:
The size of the basin of attraction in ecosystems with alternative stable states is often referred to as “ecological
resilience.” Ecosystems with a low ecological resilience may easily be tipped into an alternative basin of attraction
by a stochastic event. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to measure ecological resilience in practice. Here we show that
the rate of recovery from small perturbations (sometimes called “engineering resilience”) is a remarkably good
indicator of ecological resilience. Such recovery rates decrease as a catastrophic regime shift is approached, a phenomenon
known in physics as “critical slowing down.” We demonstrate the robust occurrence of critical slowing down in
six ecological models and outline a possible experimental approach to quantify differences in recovery rates. In all the models
we analyzed, critical slowing down becomes apparent quite far from a threshold point, suggesting that it may indeed be of
practical use as an early warning signal. Despite the fact that critical slowing down could also indicate other critical transitions,
such as a stable system becoming oscillatory, the robustness of the phenomenon makes it a promising indicator of loss of resilience
and the risk of upcoming regime shifts in a system.
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