Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

The Economic Insurance Value of Ecosystem Resilience (Baumgartner, Strunz, 2009)

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The Case for Using Probabilistic Knowledge in a Computer Chess Program (John L. Jerz)
Resilience in Man and Machine

 
Resilience is seen here as insurance against unforeseen events. It is the opposite of vulnerability.

p.1 Economic resilience, i.e. an ecosystem's ability to maintain its basic functions and controls under disturbance, is often interpreted as insurance
 
p.2-3 An ecosystem’s resilience in a given stability domain can be measured by the probability that exogenous perturbations make the system flip into another stability domain. Therefore, enhancing the resilience of a particular (desired) domain reduces the likelihood of a flip into another (less desired) domain. [JLJ - as far as game theory, perhaps we could think here of an advantage for the other player instead of a flip into another stability domain]
 
p.3 the term "insurance" ... is used to convey the message that resilience is a desirable property of some ecosystem since it helps to prevent catastrophic and irreversible reductions in ecosystem service flows.
 
p.4 insurance is an action or institution that mitigates the influence of uncertainty on a person's well-being
 
p.4 ecosystem resilience actually functions as an economic insurance only at sufficiently high levels of resilience; it does not function as an economic insurance at low levels of resilience.
 
p.9 The insurance value of resilience is only a fraction of resilience’s total economic value, namely the value of its function to reduce the risk premium of the ecosystem user’s income risk from using ecosystem services under uncertainty. Beyond its insurance value, resilience also has economic value in its function to increase the ecosystem user’s expected income from ecosystem services.

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