Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development (Smith, Klein, Huq, 2003)

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented strong evidence that human-induced climate change is occurring and that all countries of the world will be affected and need to adapt to impacts. The IPCC points out that many developing countries are particularly vulnerable because of their relatively low adaptive capacity. Therefore it is seen as a development priority to help these countries enhance their adaptive capacity to climate change.
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Stratus Consulting organized a workshop in the fall of 2001 to develop an agenda for research on how best to enhance the capacity of developing countries to adapt to climate change. This research agenda is relevant for governments and institutions that wish to support developing countries in adapting to climate change. The workshop brought together experts from developing and industrialized countries, non-governmental organizations, and multilateral and bilateral donor organizations to discuss a number of important topics related to adaptation, adaptive capacity and sustainable development. A dozen papers were commissioned to cover these topics, both from a theoretical perspective and in the form of national case studies. The papers form the basis for this important book, which presents the latest interdisciplinary knowledge about the nature and components of adaptive capacity and how it may be strengthened.

From the Publisher
Natural resource managers; experts on development issues in developing countries, and on climate change issues.

[JLJ - we can apply these ideas to game theory. Sustainable development is a great strategic idea for a machine playing a game. There are parallels between a society adapting to climate change and a machine adapting to changing configurations of pieces on a game board.]

p.2 Vulnerability is a function of (McCarthy et al., 2001): Exposure... Sensitivity... Adaptive Capacity.

p.2 Enhancement of adaptive capacity represents a practical means of coping with change and uncertainties... reduces vulnerabilities and promotes sustainable development... is a necessary condition for reducing vulnerability, particularly for the most vulnerable regions

p.4 The question arises of how best to help... adapt to change... Should the focus be on specific adaptations to... change... Can specific adaptations be successfully implemented... The alternative is to invest in enhancing adaptive capacity... These can be thought of as investments in development. Would such investments enhance adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability...? Ultimately, the question becomes whether it is more prudent to invest in specific adaptations or enhancements in adaptive capacity. [JLJ - direct application to a machine playing a game. We trade off specific explorations of possible futures versus a general adaptive capacity which is useful in general to a wide variety of situarions]

p.32 Social vulnerability is a state. It is the exposure of groups or individuals [JLJ - agents] to stress as a result of social change and environmental hazard and change.

p.32 Vulnerability = f(exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity) ... exposure is the probability of an extreme event whose influence extends over a particular area with particular characteristics... Sensitivity is the extent to which a human or natural system can absorb the impacts without suffering long-term harm or some significant state change... adaptive capacity... is therefore a component of vulnerability, defined as the ability of a system to evolve in order to accommodate perturbations or to expand the range of variability with which it can cope (e.g., Jones, 2001).

p.51 Much effort has gone into examining all aspects of adaptation to hazards - or put more broadly, into examining vulnerability and resilience. Adaptation activity at both the "specific" and "generic" scale has been examined

p.61 Vulnerability reduction and sustainable development are interlocking aims.

p.68 Research suggestions

Spend time defining the problem - to avoid providing the right answer to the wrong problem...
Indicators of adaptation and of resilience need to be developed...

...there seems to be a near symbiotic relationship between these generic development strategies and specific approaches aimed at alleviating identified hazards, suggesting that both are needed to reduce vulnerability to... hazards.

p.79 In any case, adaptive capacity is seen as... the kinds of processes underlying notions of sustainable livelihoods. There is still some way to go before the inventories of adaptive options can be integrated with the broader assessments of adaptive capacity.

p.137 Do We Have the Adaptive Capacity to Develop and Use the Adaptive Capacity to Adapt?

p.177 reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity calls for sustainable development practices and thus a redefinition of development planning

p.208 Enhancing adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation are inextricably linked with development.

p.261 The vulnerability of Africa stems from its low adaptive capacity.

p.286 In other words, promoting sustainable development is tantamount to improving society's capacity to adapt to... change

p.318 Given the inevitability of impacts, enhancement of adaptive capacity is then a necessary condition for reducing vulnerability. The IPCC suggests that activities required for the enhancement of adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to those promoting sustainable development.

p.326 What causes vulnerability to... change? It is critical to identify exactly what leads to vulnerability... Vulnerability is... a function of lack of adaptive capacity, interaction with other stresses and other causes.

p.327 Understanding how different development pathways will affect adaptive capacity and vulnerability will improve our knowledge of vulnerability. This suggests conducting comparative studies to assess how different baseline conditions can affect vulnerability.

p.327-328 What indicators could be developed or applied to identify need for adaptation and measure success of adaptation? ... What metric or metrics are appropriate for use in determining need and measuring success of adaptations? What role can valuation play in indices of vulnerability or adaptation?

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