Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (Meadows, Randers, Meadows, 2004)

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39 of 43 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Overshoot and collapse?, December 5, 2004
By  R. Hutchinson "autonomeus" (a world ruled by fossil fuels and fossil minds)

It's been 30 years since the publication of the original LIMITS TO GROWTH, and according to the updated computer model (World3), overshoot and collapse is still the most likely outcome of current trends -- too many humans, consuming too much and polluting too much, are already in a condition of overshoot (by about 20%), and will most likely go charging on until crashing back to Earth, with population and consumption reduced back beneath the carrying capacity of the environment. Using World3 and a mountain of data, the authors show that improved technologies and efficient markets, while necessary, will not be sufficient to prevent overshoot and collapse -- it will also be necessary to radically restructure society to reduce our reckless squandering of the Earth's resources.
 
The book is full of data and analysis, and while not technically challenging, is not easy reading. But LIMITS is required reading for every human on the planet! It is certainly depressing, especially knowing that the message was not heeded in the Seventies, and it is still not being heeded in the Aughts. But despair is no more constructive than complacency -- those of us who have woken up to the crisis have got to act -- CARPE DIEM!
 
One of the authors, Donella Meadows, died before this third edition was completed. Dana was a tireless and infectious optimist, who never stopped spreading the word that we have to change our way of life if humanity and the other forms of life we share the planet with are to survive.
 
Read this book, share it with others, and do SOMETHING to promote the needed transition to an ecologically sustainable country and world. Do it for Dana, do it for your children, do it before it's too late.
 
[JLJ - an extended rant, based on computer simulations from a "pet" model, of the impending collapse of society, unless we do something now to encourage sustainable ecological development. Watch the graphs (over time) as human society peaks, then collapses. Watch the food run out, the pollution increase to choking points, and land use fail to sustain development. Hear the authors rant and rave about how "right" they are, and how "wrong" their critics are, and that the insignificant problems with their model 30 years ago have now been fixed. Watch over and over, as humanity peaks, then collapses, in whatever scenario they run. Oh, and by the way, their model of the Earth is not really accurate, but somehow this doesn't seem to matter. How dare you question our model, which we will not show you. We are angry that our results are being ignored.]

p.2 The limits are similarly diverse - they may be imposed by a fixed amount of space; by limited time; by constraints inherent in physical, biological, political, psychological, or other features of a system.
 
p.25 Whenever a system stock is embedded in a positive feedback loop, that stock has the potential to grow exponentially. That doesn't mean it will grow exponentially; it does, however, have the capacity to do so if it is freed from constraints. Growth can be constrained by many things
 
p.49 How stressed is the physical system that supports the human population, the economy, and all other species? How resilient is that support system to what kinds and quantities of stress? How much is too much?
 
p.63 But figure 3-4 also shows how many adaptive responses there could be, depending on the resilience of the resource base and the technical and social flexibility of humankind.
 
p.66 Water resource constraints and water degradation are weakening one of the resource bases on which human society is built.
 
p.134 The cost of coping with these problems raises the development cost of the land.
 
p.147-148 As it operates within a finite environment, the expanding economy will begin to create stresses. These stresses begin to grow long before society arrives at the point where further growth is totally impossible. In response to stresses, the environment begins to send signals to the economy. These signals take many forms... natural systems of the earth heal themselves more slowly under the assault from pollution. These rising real costs do not necessarily show up immediately... the signals and pressures function as important parts of negative feedback loops. They seek to bring the economy into alignment with the constraints of the surrounding system. That is, they seek to stop the growth of the ecological footprint that is stressing the planet's sources and sinks.
 
p.167 It is difficult to quantify erosive mechanisms of any sort, because erosion is a whole-system phenomenon having to do with interactions among multiple forces. It appears only at times of stress. By the time it becomes obvious, it isn't easily stopped. But despite these uncertainties, we can say confidently that any system containing a latent erosion process also contains the possibility of collapse, if it is overstressed.
 
p.175 Erosion is a stress that multiplies itself if it is not quickly remedied.
 
p.176-177 By definition, overshoot is a condition in which the delayed signals from the environment are not yet strong enough to force an end to growth. How, then, can society tell if it is in overshoot? Falling resource stocks and rising pollution levels are the first clues. Here are some other symptoms: ... Growing chaos in natural systems, with "natural" disasters more frequent and more severe because of less resilience in the environmental system.
 
p.203 The most common criticisms of the original World3 model were that it underestimated the power of technology and that it did not represent adequately the adaptive resilience of the free market.
 
p.222 One lesson from the six preceding [computer modeling] runs is that in a complex, finite world, if you remove or raise one limit and go on growing, you encounter another limit. Especially if the growth is exponential, the next limit will show up surprisingly soon. There are layers of limits.
 
p.223 Growth, and especially exponential growth, is so insidious because it shortens the time for effective action. It loads stress on a system faster and faster, until coping mechanisms that have been adequate with slower rates of change finally begin to fail.
 
p.272 Visioning means imagining, at first generally and then with increasing specificity, what you really want... Visioning means taking off the constraints of "feasibility," of disbelief and past disappointments, and letting your mind dwell upon its most noble, uplifting, treasured dreams.
  Some people, especially young people, engage in visioning with enthusiasm and ease... Vision without action is useless. But action without vision is directionless and feeble. Vision is absolutely necessary to guide and motivate.

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