p.1 The overriding goal of this book is to provide a forum for fresh perspectives
on decision making. The aim is to expose readers to a wide variety of promising perspectives for enhancing the scope of judgment
and decision-making research.
p.39 Even among those who build, use and study them, there is some disagreement
about what exactly should and should not be considered a decision support system. Nevertheless, a definition consistent with
most conceptions is that a decision support system is a computer-based system, typically interactive, that is intended to
support people's normal decision making activities
p.44-45 An expert system has three basic components in addition to its interface with the user (cf. Durkin,
1994; Prerau, 1990);
- Component 1 - Knowledge base: a repository containing essential facts, rules of thumb, or heuristics,
and conventions about when and how to apply those facts and rules for the given domain (e.g., what information is used for
appraising load applications and what recommendations should be offered for particular configurations of facts).
- Component 2 - Working memory: A register for the information the user provides about the given case
under consideration (e.g., storage for the particulars on Jane Smith's application for a loan to support the establishment
of her software business).
- Component 3 - Inference engine: A processor that applies the facts, rules, and conventions in the
knowledge base to the case-specific contents of working memory to perform the task set for the system (e.g., to deliver a
credit appraisal for Jane Smith's new venture).
...The entire process by which an expert system is built is commonly called knowledge engineering.
Most expert systems are designed to function the way human experts behave when they serve as consultants. Conversations between
experts and clients are a normal, essential element of consultations. Thus, expert systems typically contain one final feature:
- Component 4 - Explanation module: A set of routines the provide natural language-like explanations
of how the system arrived at its conclusions for a given case (e.g., why it recommended denying a loan to Jane Smith's software
company), essentially a recitation of the rules the were applied to the facts of the given case (e.g., collateral below the
minimum required).
p.144 Shanteau (1992) argued that expert performance is constrained by task characteristics: Experts tend
to perform well in tasks that are static and have a high degree of predictability, and where feedback is readily available.
Similarly, Vicente (1998) argued that expert performance is constrained by the inherent predictability of the environment:
Experts working in environments that afford a high degree of predictability can exhibit a higher level of performance.
p.148 Whether an expert will use memory-based processing will depend on how
familiar they are with the particular judgment situation. If they are highly familiar, then processing will be memory-based,
but if the situation is completely novel, they will use rule-based judgment.
p.396-397 Highly practiced behaviors, for instance, become routinized until they can be carried out
without conscious attention... Policies are decision routines that originally occurred through conscious
attention and evaluation, but that over time have become part of a routine (e.g., brushing one's teeth or taking
vitamins). This perspective reminds us that routine sequences of behavior are typically dependent on thoughtful decision making
in their origins... Decisions that contribute to the establishment of behavioral routines can be thought of as personal policy
decisions. Once a person makes a decision with policy implications for routine behaviors, the routine can be established
and then carried out repeatedly without much additional decision making, unless something interferes with the routine
or there is a change in the person's goals... It is our contention that personal policy decisions are of
fundamental significance in people's lives but that research on decision making has paid very little attention to these types
of choices as a class.
p.399 Because decisions guide behavior, the goals that motivate the decision process become of fundamental
interest in understanding why decisions are made and in providing benchmarks for measuring the qualitative success of decisions.
p.423 To move successfully towards goals, it is essential that decision makers pay close attention to both
temporal and situational contexts so that they can monitor their direction of movement with respect to any given goal across
any period of time. Decision makers may also want to change goals or goal priorities as temporal and situational contexts
change.
p.627 Knowledge of relevant facts is clearly necessary for expertise.
Someone who does not know the facts about a domain will be unable to make competent decisions. Yet knowledge
alone is seldom sufficient to establish that someone has expertise. For example, knowledge of the rules of baseball
is not enough to know how to play a particular position, or to pitch a curve ball, or to manage a team in the bottom of the
ninth inning. Each of these skills requires more than knowing what the facts are. They also require an understanding
of what to do with the facts.
p.627-628 Expertise lies in knowing when to follow the rules - and
when not to... Weiss and Shanteau argued that discrimination is necessary for expertise... The ability
to differentiate between similar, but not identical, cases is a hallmark of expert performance; top experts
make distinctions that novices miss... consistency is necessary for expertise; someone who cannot repeat his
or her judgment of a case is not behaving as an expert.
p.653 A person's ability to predict the world is completely determined by how well the
world can be predicted from the available data, how consistently the person uses the available data, and how well the person
understands the world.
p.658 One of the most important questions for anyone interested in improving human judgment and decision
making... is why smart people, who often have the requisite competence, reason poorly or make stupid choices.
