p.1 Theories are statements predicting which actions will lead to what results
- and why. Sound theories help us make predictions ('If we do X, then Y will happen') and interpret the present ('Here's what's
happening now and why'). Researchers develop theories by refining hypotheses to predict with increasing accuracy how a phenomenon
should work in a widening range of circumstances.
p.1 Sound theories accomplish the following:
- Pinpoint causation. Correlation and causation aren't
the same...
- Move toward predictability. Theories enable predictability
when they identify the causes behind results and the circumstances in which that causal mechanism will - and won't result
in success.
- Analyze failures... Failures help researchers avoid
making one-size-fits-all recommendations.
p.1 Sound theories describe how something works.
p.3-4 The construction of a solid theory proceeds in three stages. It begins
with a description of phenomenon we wish to understand... unless the phenomenon is carefully observed and described in its
breadth and complexity, good theory cannot be built... To improve understanding beyond this stage, researchers need to move
to the second step: classifying aspects of the phenomenon into categories... This sorting allows researchers to organize complex
and confusing phenomena in ways that highlight their most meaningful differences. It is then possible to tackle stage three,
which is to formulate a hypothesis of what causes the phenomenon to happen and why. And that's a theory.
p.4 Researchers use their theory to predict what they will see when they
observe further examples of the phenomenon in the various categories they had defined in the second step. If the theory
accurately predicts what they are observing, they can use it with increasing confidence to make predictions in similar circumstances.
p.4 In the early stages of theory building, people typically identify the
most visible attributes of the phenomenon in question that appear to be correlated with a particular outcome and use those
attributes as the basis for categorization. This is necessarily the starting point of theory building, but it is rarely ever
more than an important first step.
p.5 The breakthroughs that lead from categorization to an understanding
of fundamental causality generally come not from crunching ever more data but from highly detailed field research, when researchers
crawl inside companies to observe carefully the causal processes at work.
p.6 Spear and Bowen concluded that all processes at Toyota are designed
according to four specific rules that create automatic feedback loops, which repeatedly test the effectiveness of each new
activity, pointing the way towards continual improvements... Further research was needed to identify the circumstances under
which that mechanism did and did not work.
p.8 We can trust a theory only when... its statement describing
the actions that must lead to success explains how they will vary as a company's circumstances change... Not until
we begin developing theories that managers can use in a circumstance-contingent way will we bring predictable success to the
world of management.
p.9 a real theory should include a mechanism - a description of
how something works.
