Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship (Chapin, Kofinas, Folke, 2009)
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The Case for Using Probabilistic Knowledge in a Computer Chess Program (John L. Jerz)
Resilience in Man and Machine

Resilience-Based Natural Resource Management in a Changing World

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This is a textbook for Natural Resource Management, Resource Conservation and Ecosystem Management, as well as other related or more specialized courses.

Most textbooks on natural resource and ecosystem management are dominated by a steady-state view that interprets change as gradual and incremental and disregards interactions across scales. Management implementation of steady-state theory and policies tends to invest in controlling a few selected ecosystem processes, at the expense of long-term social-ecological resilience - i.e., the capacity of the system to cope with surprise and abrupt changes. Loss of resilience makes systems more vulnerable to both expected and unforeseen changes.

Achieving desirable outcomes for humanity, such as those of the UN Millennium Development Goals on poverty, food security, and environmental sustainability, will require new integrated and adaptive approaches to social and economic development, where the complex interconnectedness between humans and nature, at all scales, is considered and the existence of uncertainty and surprise accepted as the rule. The purpose of this textbook is to provide a new framework for resource management - a framework based on the necessity of managing resources in a world dominated by uncertainty and change. The book links recent advances in the theory of resilience, sustainability, and vulnerability with practical issues of resource management.

[JLJ - Ecosystems are complex adaptive systems in need of effective, sustainable management strategies. What better place to start for game theory when investigating effective strategies for management and development of resources on a game board? There can be no doubt that the work done in ecosystem research can be directly applied to game theory.]

p.5 We must adopt a more flexible approach to managing resources - management to sustain the functional properties of systems that are important... under conditions where the system itself is constantly changing. Managing resources to foster resilience - to respond to and shape change in ways that both sustain and develop the same fundamental function, structure, identity, and feedbacks - seems crucial to the future... Resilience-based ecosystem stewardship is a fundamental shift from steady-state resource management... to respond to and shape change in ways that benefit... We emphasize resilience, a concept that embraces change as a basic feature of the way the world works and develops, and therefore is especially appropriate at times when changes are a prominent feature of the system.
 
p.6 The challenge is to anticipate change and shape it for sustainability in a manner that does not lead to loss of future options (Folke et al. 2003).
 
p.20 Managing for sustainability requires attention to changes typical of complex adaptive systems... How can we manage the dynamics of change to improve the chances for persistence or transformation? Four general approaches have been identified as ways to foster sustainability under conditions of directional change: (1) reduced vulnerability, (2) enhanced adaptive capacity, (3) increased resilience, (4) enhanced transformability. Each of these approaches emphasizes a different set of processes by which sustainability is fostered.
 

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p.22 Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a specified hazard or stress.
 
p.22 Vulnerability to a given stress can be reduced by (1) reducing exposure to the stress (mitigation); (2) reducing sensitivity of the system to stress by sustaining natural capital and the components of well-being, especially for the disadvantaged; and/or (3) increasing adaptive capacity and resilience as integral components of the vulnerability framework (Turner et al. 2003, Ford and Smit 2004)
 
p.22 Exposure to stress can be reduced by minimizing its intensity, frequency, duration, or extent... Mitigation (reduced exposure) is especially challenging when the stress is the cumulative effect of processes occurring at scales that are larger than the system being managed... Sensitivity to a stress can be reduced in at least three ways: (1) sustaining the slow ecological variables that determine natural capital; (2) maintaining key components of well-being; and (3) paying particular attention to the needs of the disadvantaged segments of society, who are generally most vulnerable.
 
p.23 Adaptive capacity (or adaptability) is the capacity of actors, both individuals and groups, to respond to, create, and shape variability and change in the state of the system
 
p.24 Resilience is the capacity of a social-ecological system to absorb a spectrum of shocks or perturbations and to sustain and develop its fundamental function, structure, identity, and feedbacks through either recovery or reorganization in a new context
 
p.25 Transformability is the capacity to reconceptualize and create a fundamentally new system with different characteristics.
 
p.26 Sustainable development seeks to improve well-being, while at the same time protecting the natural resources on which society depends
 
p.70 Learning to cope with uncertainty and surprise is a critical component of adaptive capacity.
 
p.82-83 There is no one optimal institutional arrangement for sustaining resources and building social-ecological resilience
 
p.86 Because sustainability, resilience, and vulnerability are normative concepts (i.e., they assume a values orientation), they require a process for defining their meaning
 
p.145 An alternative approach is to manage for resilience... Resilience-based wildlife management accepts a broader range of variability in wildlife populations as a normal state of the social-ecological system and places greater attention on community livelihoods as integral component of the human-wildlife system.
 
p.233 Resilience is the capacity of a system to cope with unexpected changes in its environment. In resource-management contexts, this means the capacity of management systems to respond effectively to unplanned, usually surprising changes in ecological and resource user dynamics (Walker et al. 2004, Gunderson et al. 2006).
 
p.235 Management objectives are clear and relatively simple. Focus is on a few key performance measures and management actions are aimed at improving those measures... Flexibility... is observed in systems with high resilience.
 
p.261 The land can be used to farm productively for a few years before stressors become prohibitive, at which point it must be abandoned in order to permit forest regrowth.
 
p.329 The first step in addressing potential transformation (either desirable or not) is to identify plausible alternative states and consider whether they are more or less desirable than the current state... and defining a collective vision for the future. Once the vision is defined, people are more willing to explore and agree on potential pathways to improved situations.
 
p.330 The nature of many of these transformations was highly predictable from the known sensitivity of the system to critical controls, and the movement toward these state changes could be recognized from observed changes in drivers and known indicators of the transformation pathway. What is often unknown is the time course, abruptness, and sometimes the degree of irreversibility of the changes - hence the importance of fostering general resilience and the adaptive capacity to adjust to change...unintended transformation should be taken as a serious possibility in all social-ecological systems and that resource managers should identify and respond to likely causes and indicators of movement toward transformation.
 
p.330 As ecosystems approach important thresholds, they respond more sluggishly to intervention, so the ecosystem becomes more difficult to control even as control is more desperately necessary. It has lost resilience.
 
p.330 Preparing a social-ecological system for transformation therefore entails the capacity to detect early warnings and recognize potential thresholds.
 
p.331 A successfully navigated transformation is best stabilized by building adaptive capacity and resilience through the processes described earlier (Tables 15.3 and 15.4).
 
p.331 Continuous evaluation and open discussion of the associated economic and noneconomic benefits and costs of change provide a basis for assessing progress in navigating relatively undefined structures and relationships that arise in novel social-ecological situations.
 
[Glossary]
 
p.344 Cumulative processes. Processes that occur locally in different parts of the world, but over time the effect aggregates to produce regional-to-global consequences.
 
p.350 Resilience learning. Form of social learning that fosters society's capacity to be prepared for the long term by enhancing adaptive capacity to deal with change.
 
p.352 Sustainable development. Development that seeks to improve human well-being, while at the same time sustaining the natural resource base and opportunities on which future generations depend.
 
p.353 Vulnerable. Likely to change in state in response to a stress or stressor.

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