ix we continue to stumble along with the others, in the vague hope that those in front might know what they
are doing. But they have no maps, and not even a clear goal, and the dim flashlights don't allow them to see beyond where
they set their feet.
If we had maps, if we had a goal, if we had brighter flashlights, if we knew where the path is leading
us, if we knew alternative paths and their destinations, we would stop to discuss the possibilities and perhaps switch to
another path.
xii-xiii We have to take a whole-systems approach when we think about the future seriously.
To help you keep in mind the whole picture, the main arguments are summarized here.
Although we cannot predict the future, we know that it will have to conform to the laws of
nature and of dynamic systems, to the restrictions of a small planet, to the constraints of ecological systems
and the availability of resources, and to the peculiarities of human individuals and human society. This constrains
future development to certain riverbeds - not everything is possible, and many paths that seem possible at first sight turn
out to be inconsistent and impossible if their whole-system implications are considered.
xiii If we make a realistic assessment of the possibilities we have, given the physical and systems constraints
and ethical principles that sustainability requires, future paths would have to follow a different riverbed. This
riverbed is not a rigid narrow channel, but a wide spectrum of opportunities and diverse approaches with a common characteristic
of sustainable development.
p.7-8 To sustain something implies valuing it enough to put an effort into maintaining its integrity...
we are not free in the choice of the material and energy flows that will support us... Given this restriction
of resource flows, we can still choose how they should be used in a sustainable future... sustainability must remain
a dynamic concept... a sustainable society must allow and sustain such change.
Such change must be evolutionary and self-organizing. The widest possible spectrum of adaptive
responses to new challenges should compete for the "fittest" solution. But this means that "diversity" of
processes and functions is one of the important prerequisites for sustainability. The greater the number of different
innovative responses, the better.
p.10-11 these systems... Their natural behavior is simply more complex than our simple, linear understanding
would lead us to expect.
We can even identify the general reasons for the complex behavior, although this will not
help us much in accurately predicting it: the presence of stocks, of feedbacks, of delays, of self-organization.
Fully understanding the dynamic behavior would require building an accurate model of the
system - usually a computer model. It would have to represent both the system's components and the flows of energy,
matter, or information connecting them. The behavior of this model could then be studied under conditions similar to that
of the real system. All of this is complicated and usually requires the services of a system analyst, so we should
not be too surprised at our inadequate intuitive predictions.
p.12-13 In thinking about the future... we have to remind ourselves that there are some constraints
that human ingenuity simply cannot remove because they are prescribed by natural laws or the physical conditions...
All of these constraints taken together reduce the spectrum of possible future paths significantly... When
studying possible future behavior of a system, we can restrict our search to this "accessibility space" fenced in by the constraints...
Constraints reduce the accessibility space significantly, and they have to be carefully staked out in studies
of future paths to separate the possible from the impossible. Some constraints are rigid, others are fuzzy.
p.14 Constraints reduce the accessibility space of future developments significantly, but they still leave
enough room for a great variety of future paths... Trying to describe all the eventualities would be impossible and
confusing. We have to find a more efficient way that cuts it down to a tractable task while still capturing the full spectrum
of possible future paths.
This is done by defining "scenarios", and using them to develop corresponding "future paths".
p.14 Scenarios describe constellations of future conditions that cannot be predicted with certainty...
Using some dominant ordering principles... one can arrive at a limited number of scenarios describing the conditions for possible
future paths... If we have covered the spectrum of possible future conditions reasonably well with our scenarios, then we
should be able to generate a reasonably accurate picture of the spectrum of possible future paths - provided we have a good
understanding, or even a reliable (dynamic) model of the system we are studying.
A logical first choice for a scenario is to start with the "no surprise" extension of current
conditions into the future.
p.16 We have to translate our insights into effective action. This requires a deep
understanding of the problems, their dynamics, their causes, and of our possibilities, constraints and limitations.
p.17-18 Anticipation of an undesirable future can bring about timely action to prevent it... So
we need something like a map of the future. A map does not tell us where we will be going, or where we should be
going - it merely informs us about the possibilities we have... Development in time is more like floating downstream on a
river... we do have the ability to steer our raft to some degree... We therefore need a description of the possibilities
ahead of us... Such a map would not have to give us very detailed information about the landscape and the river.
But it should give us a useful image of what may be ahead, and allow us to compare the relative merits of different
routes and different riverbeds before we embark on our journey.
p.18 The principle requirement of scenario writing is to stay within accessibility space
p.19 Knowledge from four different areas has to flow into the definition of scenarios and the elaboration
of future paths: knowledge of the systems involved, of the constraints that apply, of the dynamics and the impacts they may
generate, and occasionally also of detail - if this could cause a crucial switch (bifurcation) to another development path.
[JLJ - direct application to game theory]
p.20 In Part II of the book, we will develop visions of the future that can guide our efforts to
change "the system"... These visions must be realistic... So we must be aware of the constraints that restrict
our possibilities... It is convenient to think about constraints in terms of fences that make certain system conditions
("states") inaccessible. That is, the total range of theoretical future possibilities is reduced by these constraints.
Let's call the remaining, potentially accessible part of state space the accessibility space A
p.23 For realistic description of future development paths, scenario descriptions must restrict
them to this permissible accessibility space A. Everything outside is fiction, and only confuses the discussion. However,
within A, there is a spectrum of options and possible paths. A comprehensive scenario study should cover all options by "spanning"
this accessibility space fully.
p.23 Riverbeds of the possible [section title]
The state space of a system has its regions of attraction into which the system prefers to move, much like
a landscape has valleys into which water flows from the hillsides to form creeks... the state space of a system and its attractors
change with time... Scenarios should define the major potential riverbeds of future development... Such a
study of potential riverbeds would concentrate on those that are most likely, and would not bother with those that are extremely
unlikely. [JLJ - A great idea for playing a game.]
p.24 So let us first take a good look at the current riverbed of development, find out where it
would be leading us, and whether it can lead into a sustainable future at all. If it doesn't, we have to find a new, sustainable
path... Remember what was said in the first chapter: sustainability is a dynamic concept... So we
really don't want to define a particular path; we want to describe a whole riverbed of sustainability, and how to get there.
A wide riverbed does not confine the river to a particular course: it allows perpetual change to accommodate changing conditions
p.26 Sustainability... means, as said before, that only the riverbed, not the exact location of
the river in it, can and should be specified. [JLJ - That is the best idea I have heard in a long time. We don't
need to waste time predicting the exact course of the river, which is difficult and error-prone, only the location of the
riverbed. Much like in a game, we see the outlines of the future, not the exact path.]
p.27 scenarios and future paths must be derived under rather strict conditions to make
sure they stay within the accessibility space. They must be plausible, realizable, and internally consistent.
Scenario derivation turns out to be tedious and painstaking systems analytical research.
p.35 When thinking about possible future developments, about the paths open to us, and
about the transition to another future path, we must have a basic understanding of the dynamic processes taking place
in the world around us, how we are affecting them, and how they may affect us.
p.37-38 All of our understanding of the world is in the form of models... Models allow experimentation...
and the outcomes guide our decisions... To produce reliable information about dynamics, the processes producing dynamics
in the model should be of the same kind as those we are trying to understand... Much of the study of dynamic systems
is therefore concerned with defining and building mathematical or computer models and studying their dynamic behavior... Knowledge
gained from the study of models can be used to understand and perhaps manage and control the real system... Much about
systems can therefore be learned from models that contain essential elements and processes we also find in real systems.
p.47 Behavior means the dynamic response of the system for a given set of system parameters...
Dynamic systems can show some peculiar behaviors. They perplex our minds that are better equipped for dealing with
static conditions and slow change... Most of the peculiarities cannot be explained by a system's components
alone... System behavior is therefore an emergent feature of the system... Systems therefore cannot be understood
by studying their parts; they can only be understood by analyzing them as wholes. This points to the essential role of system
structure. It defines how elements of a system are connected and influence each other, often in feedback loops.
More than anything else, system structure is responsible for the characteristic behavior
of a system.
p.64 In human systems, structural change usually means self-organization. The system itself undertakes
to change structure and function in response to new requirements.
p.67 1. Our world consists of dynamic systems that interact with each other and cause each other
to change.
2. All systems can only operate in a limited accessibility space defined by numerous constraints.
3. The specific combination of system elements and system structure produces characteristic behavior
(intrinsic dynamics), independent of system input.
p.70 We live by indicators... The more complex the little world in which each of us lives, the more indicators
we have to watch. If we want to compare future paths and their impacts, we have to look at indicators that provide
relevant information about future developments.
Indicators are our link to the world. They condense its enormous complexity to a manageable
amount of meaningful information informing our decisions and directing our actions. If we have learned to watch the
relevant indicators, we can understand and cope with our dynamic environment. If we follow the wrong signals, we get confused
or misled, responding inappropriately, against our true interests and intentions.
p.70 The indicators we watch mean something to us, they are of value to us because they
tell us something that is in some way important to us. They help us to construct a picture of the state of our environment
on which we can base intelligent decisions to protect and promote what we care about. Indicators are therefore
an expression of values.
p.70 Learning to handle a complex system means learning to recognize a specific set of indicators,
and to assess what their current state means for the "health", or viability, of the system. Often this learning of
indicators is intuitive, informal, subconscious: a mother learning to recognize, and to respond to, the signals from her new
born baby... [JLJ - in a game, learning the signals which indicate the direction for sustainable development and the creation
of structural tension in the hopes of obtaining an advantage... ]
p.71 Indicator sets about a given system are determined by two distinct requirements: (a)
they have to provide vital information providing a "picture" about the current state (health, viability)
of that system; (b) they have to provide sufficient information to the "pilot" to successfully intervene and correct
system behavior in accordance with given objectives, and to determine the relative success of his or her intervention.
In other words, indicator sets are determined by (a) the system itself, and (b) the interests, needs, or objectives of their
operator.
p.71 The human societal system, its component systems, and the resource and environmental system
on which they depend, are complex dynamic systems. Just like the pilots of aircraft, the human individuals
and organizations who run these systems need comprehensive sets of indicators providing essential information about the state
and viability of these systems themselves, and about their "position" with respect to human goals. The latter point
means that human goals and values figure prominently in the distribution of indicator sets of human societal development.
p.74 (a) we must develop an approach for identifying indicators of viability of a given system;
and (b) we must think about the goal of sustainable development... in order to define the
proper weight and attention that must be focused on different systems and indicators.
p.75 A system can only exist and prosper in its environment if its structure and functions are adapted
to that environment. If a system is to be successful in its environment, the particular features of that environment
must be reflected in its structure and functions.
p.78 We could analyze the environments of other systems - a cow, a tree, a child, a Mars
lander, a university, a nation: We would always find the same fundamental properties of the respective environments...
These fundamental properties of the environment are each unique, i.e. each property cannot be expressed by any combination
of other fundamental properties. If we want to describe a system's environment fully, we have to say something about
each of these properties: What is the normal environment? On what resources from the environment does the system
depend? What is the diversity and variety of the environment? How variable is it? What are the trends of change in the environment?
What other systems have to be respected in one way or another?
p.80 We have found six basic system orientors (existence and subsistence, effectiveness, freedom
of action, security, adaptability, coexistence) that apply to all autonomous self-organizing systems
p.80 Basic orientors of systems
Existence and subsistence: The system must be able to exist in the normal
environmental state. The information, energy, and material inputs necessary to sustain the system must be available.
Effectiveness: The system should on balance (over the long term) be effective
(not necessarily efficient) in its efforts to secure needed resources (information, matter, energy) from its environment.
Freedom of action: The system must be able to cope in various ways with the challenges
posed by environmental variety.
Security: The system must be able to protect itself from the detrimental effects
of environmental variability, i.e. variable, fluctuating, and unpredictable conditions outside the normal environmental
state.
Adaptability: The system should be able to learn, adapt, and self-organize in
order to generate more appropriate responses to challenges posed by environmental change.
Coexistence: The system must be able to modify its behavior to account for behavior
and orientors of other (actor) systems in its environment. [JLJ - this insightful declaration seems to solve
the concept of selective search in games such as chess. As an initial exploration, you score your position using vital,
holistic indicators of system health, then direct your search efforts to improve the weakest ones.]
p.80-81 the orientors provide us with a checklist for asking a set of questions for finding out
how well a system is doing in its environment... we derive an indicator set for sustainable development later
in this chapter.
p.81 Each of the orientors stands for a unique requirement. That means that a minimum of attention
must be paid to each of them, and that compensation of deficits of one orientor by overfulfillment of the other orientors
is not possible.
p.81 Health and fitness of a system require adequate satisfaction of each of the system's basic
orientors. Planning, decisions, and actions in societal systems must therefore always reflect at least the handful
of basic orientors (or derived criteria) simultaneously. Comprehensive assessments of system behavior and development
must also be multi-criteria assessments... a system's development will be constrained by the orientor that
is currently "in the minimum". Particular attention will therefore have to focus on those orientors that
are currently deficient.
p.84 One can find solid evidence of the basic orientors even in computer experiments with "animats" simulating
the evolution of intelligence in artificial life. Animats are artificial creatures that learn to live and cope in a fairly
complex computer world. Mimicking evolution, they use genetic algorithms to develop and learn efficient rules to find "food"
and avoid "obstacles"... These experiments in artificial life show again that values are not subjective inventions
of the human mind, but are basic system requirements emerging from a system's interaction with its environment. [JLJ
- this concept can be applied to game theory. ]
p.85 All of these results confirm the validity of basic orientor theory and give
us considerable assurance that it can be used to help us identify indicators that carry significant and meaningful information
about viability and sustainability of a system.
p.93 Sustainable development means maintaining a maximum of future options, and that
requires maintaining the "seed bank" of available systems and approaches for potential future use. In other words, sustainability
means preservation and encouragement of diversity.
p.98 For each of the subsystems we have to find indicators of subsystem sustainability and of subsystem
contribution to sustainable development of the total system. This requires defining indicators that reflect
basic orientor satisfaction both for the subsystem and for the total system to which it contributes its services.
The indicators should be clearly and unambiguously defined... They should offer a hierarchy of specificity,
from simple and crude indicators for rough estimates to more precise and specific quantitative indicators, if required.
p.99 The indicators for the different categories cannot readily be combined into one number describing
the current state of "sustainability".
p.100 If all orientors are in a satisfactory state, i.e. if all interests of the system
are adequately cared for, then we can simply state that the system is "viable", "healthy", or "sustainable"... Sustainability
assessments therefore often reduce to finding which of the affected systems are (currently) not sustainable, what the reasons
are, and then finding solutions to the existing problems. In other words, we don't have to deal with the immense "control
panel" of indicators all of the time, but only concentrate on the "red lights".
p.108 "Sustainable development" is possible only if none of them [the basic orientors] is threatened. Carefully
checking all the orientor conditions means that the chances of overlooking some important or even vital aspect will be small.
p.108 While systems theory can provide a systematic framework for guiding the search for indicators
and assessing viability and sustainability, it cannot determine the final choice of indicators.
p.108 We are not simply asking people "to find and agree on a set of indicators", we are asking
them to find answers (indicators) to very specific questions concerning all the vital aspects of viability and sustainability,
i.e. the basic orientors. In this structured approach based on solid systems theory and empirical evidence, we
can be reasonably certain to obtain a comprehensive set of indicators covering all important aspects of systems viability
and sustainability. The method avoids both unnecessary "bunching" of redundant indicators in some areas, and gaping
holes of oversight and neglect in others.
p.108 The important point is that the indicators chosen provide us with reliable answers to the different
orientor assessment questions. If satisfactory qualitative answers are obtained in all categories for all
subsystems and the total system, we can conclude that the system is (currently) viable and sustainable. If just one
of the categories is in an unsatisfactory state, a problem endangering viability and sustainable development is indicated.
p.111 each subsystem remains part of the whole and intimately connected to it. Change in one subsystem affects
other subsystems and the total system... We must therefore study the interrelated developments of all essential
component systems simultaneously in order to obtain a reasonably complete and reliable picture of future developments.
p.216 Where sustainability is not even a goal, it is unlikely that sustainability will be achieved
by accident. And even if it is a declared goal, sustainability cannot be achieved where money, time, resources, and
the creative energies of individuals are wasted.
p.263-264 "Sustainable development" therefore means acceptance of constant change, and deliberate
creation and preservation of opportunities for such change - even though the directions of change and the resultant development
path cannot be specified in advance.
The snapshot of a plausible and consistent future path is therefore not sufficient proof of long-term
viability of the path. In a further step of path analysis, the dynamic consequences of path development must be investigated
to check whether conflicts... must be expected later on.
p.271 A holistic analysis of the possible complex behavior must find ways to simplify and aggregate
without losing essential features of dynamic processes.
p.271 The coevolution of species, ecosystems, and physical environment brings forth a growth of
structural and dynamic complexity in a sustainable overall system. Certain aspects can serve as models for human
development, other aspects are general system principles which also apply to human systems.
p.271 The carrying capacity of a given environment is the result of the coevolution of
species populations, ecosystems, physical environment, and human activities. It is limited by the energy and material
flows which can be mobilized and utilized.
p.283 we need a good set of indicators to really "see" the state of viability and sustainability
of our community... the whole story in the "holistic" sense that is required for a comprehensive assessment.
We have dealt with the problem of finding representative indicators for sustainable development
in Chapter 4 [JLJ p.70-108]. These indicators must give a fairly reliable and complete picture of what really matters.
We found that the state of satisfaction of the needs and "real interests" (basic orientors) of actors, subsystems,
and the total system must be represented by the indicators.
p.284 here is a personalized task for you, the reader! Get together a group of civic-minded, creative
people, and develop a set of indicators of sustainable development for your community!... While I cannot give you
a customized list of indicators of sustainable development for your particular community, I can give you a proven
recipe for finding them. [JLJ - 'a proven recipe' - ok, I'm listening... ] Go through the basic orientor
assessment questions of Table 4.5 [JLJ - p.99 ] for each of the subsystems, and find indicators that can
answer these questions for the particular circumstances of your community. Note that you have to find indicators
for two sets of questions: (a) with respect to viability of the sector system itself, (b) with respect to contribution
of this system to the community as a whole... Whatever the final outcome of the exercise may be, it will certainly
focus the discussion on the really important issues.
Here are some sample questions that would lead you to appropriate indicators... [JLJ - well, there
it is. A 'proven recipe' for finding indicators useful for sustainable development for a community. We just need to apply
this to chess, or another game such as Go. Sounds like a good research project - point your adviser to this footnote and tell
him/her I sent you. Whatever the final outcome of the exercise may be, it will certainly focus the discussion on the really
important issues.]
p.288 Sustainable development implies facing reality and accepting the physical and environmental
limits present
p.308 In finding and picking a suitable path in the wide riverbed of sustainable development, the
images and visions we have about possible futures are important parts of the map of the future. This gives us choices.
What choice we take ultimately depends on the compass that is guiding us; our world view, values, and ethics.
