Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

Understanding and Solving Environmental Problems in the 21st Century (Costanza, Jorgensen, 2002)

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Toward a New, Integrated Hard Problem Science

UnderstandingCostanza.jpg

The aim of this book is to encourage integration of the natural and social sciences with the policy and design-making community, and thereby develop a deeper understanding of complex environmental problems. Its fundamental themes are:

• integrated modeling and assessment
• complex, adaptive, hierarchical systems
• ecosystem service
• science and decision-making
• ecosystem health and human health
• quality of life and the distribution of wealth and resources.

This book will act as a state of the art assessment of integrated environmental science and its relation to real world problem solving. It is aimed not only at the academic community, but also as a sourcebook for managers, policy makers, and the informed public. It deals both with the state of the science and the level of consensus among scientists on key environmental issues.

The concepts underlying this book were developed at the 2nd EcoSummit workshop held in Halifax, Nova Scotia, June, 2000, with active participation from all delegates, and attempts to present their collective view.

[JLJ - useful ideas for game theory. The problems faced by ecologists seeking to manage sustainable development in an ecosystem and software developers seeking to create heuristics to play a game are unbelievably similar in scope. Each side could learn from the efforts being made by the other as they confront their set of difficult problems.]

CAHSystems - Complex Adaptive Hierarchical Systems
 
p.13 Certainly there is a growing view that the complexity we face derives from the interaction (and adaptation) of many relatively simple agents (Holland, 1998) and that the complex pattern of systems behavior that we observe emerges from the underlying pandemonium (Harris, 1999). The question of debate is at what level can we represent reality, at what level can we model and predict with confidence? If the behavior of the real world is really like a CAS then there are emergent levels of abstraction that give us predictive power. [JLJ - and this is precisely what we should aim for in game theory.]
 
p.13 there is an inverse relationship between model complexity and its probability of use. There is a real need for simple, robust heuristics, which can be used to support decisionmaking and policy development.
 
p.43-44 The first property of CAHSystems is complexity and in many ways this is the defining feature of CAHSystems... we have intuitive understanding of complexity that eludes formalization... "In general, we seem to associate complexity with anything we find difficult to understand."
 
p.46 The second property of the CAHSystems concept is adaptation and the third property is hierarchy. Adaption and hierarchy are implicitly coupled characteristics. When an adaptive response is caused by some stimuli, the causes and effects of the stimuli exist across a number of spatial, temporal and organizational scales... Adaption is readily accepted as some... response to environmental stimuli. Implicit in the concept of adaption is the notion of a goal.
 
p.47 adaptation represents the continued maintenance of a system... A system achieving this continuously in the presence of numerous interactions (stimuli, perturbations, stresses, etc.) is an adapted, or adaptive system
 
p.49 Perhaps we may re-interpret this empirically observed operating point as not being a goal "chosen", but rather one that is negotiated via adaptive processes. That is, CAHSystems are "trying" to be as adaptable as possible because CAHSystems do not and can not have complete or active "control" over their environment
 
p.58 The central idea of the orientor approach refers to self-organizing processes that are able to build up gradients and macroscopic structures from the microscopic "disorder" of non-structured, homogeneous element distributions in open systems, without receiving directing regulations from the outside... the development of the systems seems to be oriented toward specific points or areas in the state space. The state or other variables used to elucidate these dynamics are the orientors. Their technical counterparts in modeling are called goal functions (Muller and Fath, 1998, p. 15).
 
p.69 One of the defining characteristics of CAHSystems is that they are adaptive... The very nature of adaptation implies orientation toward or at least away from something, that there is some direction, force, or organizing principle that moves a system toward or away from a particular state... As a system adapts, to what is it orienting? Is there a general pattern or organizing principle that can explain, model, or even anticipate this orientation? In bioevolutionary theory one universal orientor is used, fitness. In ecology above the organism level, the search for organizing principles that apply to adaptation has produced a variety of energy "orientors" (Muller and Leupelt, 1998), as previously discussed
 
p.71 there is growing agreement, if not consensus, that many of the different thermodynamic orientors that ecosystem theory has produced are in fact consistent with each other and complimentary.
 
p.72 In particular, we wish to be able to assess whether the direction and degree to which these systems are developing is sustainable. The orientor approach provides a potentially extremely useful tool for that purpose.
 
p.72 Historical constraints or inertia allow only a limited set of dynamics in the landscape by dictating the form of the landscape. The physical and contextual landscape in which these systems operate changes with the activity of the system, altering the landscape in which it functions. Any attempt to orient is slowed and hindered by the ever-changing landscape in which it operates. This is the Red Queen effect (see glossary) in which one runs faster just to stay in the same place... The goal-function properties can be used to determine the likely direction of adaptation, but they do not imply that system must reach their final "oriented" states.
 
p.73 CAHSystems are "systemic" in the sense that they act, adapt, and change as constituted wholes. Wholeness is of the essence in CAHS-organization... Integration is necessary to achieve an understanding of the "wholeness" of CAHSystems. Modeling represents a powerful method of integration of theory, empirical knowledge and scientific rigor. A distinction must be made between models and modeling. The first is "product" and the second "process". The use of a modeling approach is promising as an aid in understanding and "managing" (control, predictability) whole CAHSystems.
 
p.170 Costanza et al. (1992) defined ecosystem health as follows: "An ecological system is healthy and free from 'distress syndrome' if it is stable and sustainable, that is, if it is active and maintains its organisation, and autonomy over time and is resilient to stress".
 
p.171 An ecosystem functioning effectively and positively has a certain level of integrity [JLJ - capacity to function optimally]. Thus it is the combination of attributes (i.e., resilience, productivity) that is critical, not one element alone.
 
p.171 The journal of Ecosystem Health incorporates these concepts of human health, by defining ecosystem health as: "a systematic approach to the preventative, diagnostic, and prognostic aspects of ecosystem management, and to the understanding of relationships between ecosystem health and human health. It seeks to understand and optimize the intrinsic capacity of an ecosystem for self-renewal while meeting reasonable human goals. It encompasses the role of societal values, attitudes and goals in shaping our conception of health at human and ecosystem scales.
 
p.184 A comprehensive assessment of ecosystem health requires simultaneous consideration of at least six major elements of the regional ecosystem: ...All these aspects must be viewed not as competing interests but as integral components of a single complex system characterized by continual novelty, contradiction, surprise, and complex dynamics... In order to maintain a healthy ecosystem, development and management activities should be capable of maintaining all the properties previously mentioned. [JLJ - it would seem that the task in playing a game is to determine the vital components which determine the health of a game position and to strive to maintain an acceptable level of all of them, simultaneously.]
 
p.192 To initiate the cycle of discussion, and help focus interactions, ... broad questions were sequentially examined. These questions were: ...
(3) What are the priority actions that should be taken to protect, preserve, or restore the health of ecosystems and growing human populations?
(4) What are the barriers to effective action?
(5) What are useful measures, indicators, or metrics of progress? [JLJ - these are great questions and should be among the first things considered when writing software to play a game effectively. In other words, how can we make our efforts productive, in a way that identifies and removes the barriers to true progress? How will we know we are making incremental progress, or that our directions of exploration are promising? What cues tell us that we can safely stop exploring a path of exploration?]
 
p.199 No matter what models of interaction are used, only when a broader understanding of the basic interrelationships of all life forms and environments become widespread, will humans devise and support management options that truly restore and sustain ecosystem and human health. [JLJ - the same might be said about playing a game and the models of interaction of the game pieces. ]

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