SGC self-generated complexity
HOT highly optimised tolerance
SOC self-organised criticality
CAS complex adaptive systems
ACS agent-based complex systems
p.3 Sustainability and development are therefore closely interconnected
p.19 can we find a new resilience in the face of global constraints, and of complexity, change and variability?
To do so will require a new approach to complexity and change and a new view of the interactions and relationships between
individuals, communities and institutions that allows of greater flexibility, adaptiveness and collaboration.
p.20 There is much evidence that ecosystems and other CAS are much sloppier and more loosely connected than
SOC would imply, with "kludges" (see below) and other contingent structures, which show design features that are hangovers
of past contexts.
p.21 entities... interact and change their behaviour as a result, thereby leading
to CAS where the system behaviour unfolds over time in a recursive manner... Relationships are important
and must be seen in context.
p.21 The unfolding properties of CAS are extremely difficult to predict from the behaviour of the individual
isolated agents. Differing interactions and relationships in differing contexts give differing (or similar) outcomes.
p.21 There is an important point to be made here. The complete behaviour of the CAS [complex adaptive
system] arises from the pandemonium of local interactions.
p.21 CAS are not optimal, equilibrium systems. Change is the only constant and it is not
states we are interested in so much as trajectories. As they evolve over time there is much "make do and mend". As
Dennett termed them, there are many "kludges": entities are agents that arose in response to past demands, now being pressed
into service in new contexts. In many contexts we see a constrained walk through evolutionary... space
p.22 the indeterminacy and complexity of interactions in CAS, coupled with the high degree
of non-linearity, mean that there always will be surprises, points of no return and hysteresis... effects
in the responses and dynamics of these systems.
p.22 Overall, the understanding and management of CAS requires a high degree of adaptability and
risk management
p.25 Interestingly, although they are highly dynamic and contingent systems, ecosystems do seem to generate
functional constraints and repeated emergent patterns
p.28 As opposed to a science of balance and equilibrium, a new science of complexity and resilience sees
the world through new eyes. Instead of concentrating on linear responses to change around the equilibrium, on central tendencies,
and on the average properties of data, the new science focuses instead on non-linearities, on dynamic interactions, on contexts,
and on network structures and the emergent properties of the interactions of agents.
p.31 Andreas Wagner has shown how living systems... can, through evolution and trial and error,
come to lie in... areas in state space that are characterized by robustness, resilience and persistence over time.
Indeed, he argues that living systems develop robust architectures in the face of perturbations through evolution
and trial and error
p.32 Small-scale interaction and variability is important and may very well show emergence and larger-scale
effects.
p.35 There is a question of... how we detect change and act on the knowledge gained... we need to strive
for greater resource use efficiency in the way we do things. This is the real challenge of comprehending complexity: the ability
to see future paths and possibilities and the ability to build networks and relationships and plan strategy. Above all, perhaps
the most useful skill is the ability to recognize, name and explain what is going on, and then interpret events and reveal
patterns to others.
p.35 Given that our knowledge and predictive capacity in the complex emerging world is inevitably going
to be partial than this raises severe individual and institutional challenges. There are, as yet, few good examples of learning
cultures and adaptive management.
p.39 The science of ecology attempts to understand the interactions between the organisms and processes
that form the basis of what has been called the "economy of nature"... The science of ecology is an attempt to understand
the great complexity of the natural world and to provide humans with some predictive tools.
p.57 This is not a world of "being". Things are constantly changing, developing and "becoming".
Dennett uses the word "kludges" to describe the existence of contingent organs, organisms or functions that evolved in response
to one context and which frequently ended up being pressed into service in quite a different context - a Rube Goldberg
device that, even though it was left over from another era, might just work in the new. Disturbance, patchiness, accident
and surprise leave room for innovation and create opportunities.
p.64 So we have come a long way in a few short years. From Unitarian, holistic equilibrium theories of ecology
and individualistic, Gleasonian, non-equilibrium approaches we have moved to a middle ground of algorithmic, logically deep,
non-equilibrium systems, which are based around the pandemonium of local interactions coupled across multiple spatial and
temporal scales by reaction-diffusion relationships.
p.165 Risk is not a monolithic concept but a mental construct that allows for prediction of future hazards
and facilitates risk reduction measures. Risk is a multi-dimensional, subjective and value-laden concept involving uncertainties
in knowledge and much contextual baggage.
p.169 All players need to be engaged in systems thinking: weighing and judging their knowledge,
needs and actions... Systems thinking cuts to the very heart of epistemology and context. What is it we know?
How do we know it? What is the associated value set and accompanying assumptions... What can we do with the knowledge we have?
These questions raise important issues about our ability to observe are recognize what is going on - environmentally, socially
and culturally - to name and understand actions and behaviours, and to use the knowledge to predict and achieve outcomes.
The new world requires an inquiry into the nature and use of evidence.
p.231 If the future really does bring us surprises, "tipping points", positive feedbacks
and hysteresis effects then... Planning for as much resilience as we can manage is the only prudent option.
p.238 it takes a long time and a lot of social interaction to achieve a consensus on the basic problem,
the conceptual model of what some of the key ingredients are, and agreement on a suitable course of action... If scientists
have one major failing in all this, it is the conviction that reason and rationality will prevail and that people will be
convinced by resort to argument based on the known "facts". This is neither a reasonable nor a rational world, and there is
precious little agreement on the "facts" of the matter, much debate and little mutual learning!
p.242 If we are to achieve a "stronger" form of sustainability then there is a need to
mainstream the complex: to convince all parties, all camps, that the only way forward is to be able to manage the
complex adaptive interactions between people, resources, economics and the natural world, all at once. If we take
a resilient view of these interactions... then we need to be cognisant of the precariousness of our present position. How
far are we from a major change in the global system, a surprising change in state that may involve hysteresis? This view places
a new emphasis on complex forms of integrated risk assessments.
p.264 Deutsch and her collaborators wrote
We envision that the development of indicators of ecosystem performance to capture critical
natural capital in the context of resilience will become an increasingly important area for both research and policy
in the coming years.
p.264 In a discussion of complex systems and valuation, Limburg and others wrote
As we conceive of them, none of the existing valuation methods, economic or ecological, adequately allows
for all the dimensions that distinguish the marginal from the non-marginal: no single valuation scheme will work well over
all circumstances. We must develop indicators of which set of system conditions we find ourselves in, or moving toward.
p.300 The view of ecological and socioeconomic systems as resilient rather than static focuses on
the system properties, which promote "the capacity of the system to absorb disturbance and reorganise while undergoing change
so as to retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks."
p.303 all knowledge is partial and incomplete, ...evidence is debatable and there are various
ways of knowing determined by culture, semiotics [JLJ - the study of signs and symbols] and values... there are many ways
of knowing and science does not necessarily have precedence over other forms of knowledge.
p.310 It would be good to be able to have some early warning of system crashes and the approach
to thresholds or critical points. We need measures of the precariousness of our present position.
After all, if we think in terms of resilience, complex attractors and multiple states rather than global equilibria, what
we require is an estimate of the shape of the overall "stability landscape". We must recognize that all these coupled "systems
of systems" inhabit changing "stability landscapes"... We must also recognize that these "landscapes" change with time as...
large-scale constraints change over time.
p.328 In his recent book Collapse, Jared Diamond has looked at the fates of many previous human
societies... Diamond catalogs the reasons for failure:
Failure to anticipate the impending environmental collapse because of surprise, an incorrect sense of place
or other unexpected ecological interactions.
Failure to perceive imminent changes because of slow or imperceptible change, or a lack of evidence, or
a disagreement about what constituted evidence...
The application of apparently rational behavior...
The application of unsuccessful solutions.
p.328-329 Sustainability clearly requires an improved knowledge of the fundamental characteristics
of the resources we are trying to manage, together with appropriate institutions to manage complex and emergent biophysical
and social entities at local and global scales.
p.332 If we are to avoid collapse then all forms of capital need to be robust and resilient to change.
p.333 measures designed to monitor resilience would be different. These indicators would monitor the stocks
and flows of capitals, the approaches to MaxEnt "envelope" states, the spectrum of perturbations an the responses to it. This
requires monitoring both means and variances across a range of scales, and watching for signals of the approach of thresholds
and sudden changes in state. Resilience measures would also monitor systems and institutions that enhance adaptability and
transformability.
p.335 In the face of ever-tightening resource availability we should expect to see all kinds of
innovative solutions and non-linear forms of creativity arising from adaptive network strategies and transformations....
An adaptive management regime will be required to recognise the existence of constraints and "tipping points": boundaries
to our choices and actions. We must seek greater resilience... Norton believes that we should move towards "strong" sustainability
and hold open options for the future. He sees the maintenance of resilience as essential for intergenerational equity
p.343 Much of the knowledge gained will only be achieved through empirical inquiry and adaptive
experimentation
p.344 To achieve "strong" sustainability will require working within natural constraints
