xi how can we tell when we are on a path of sustainable development?
We need appropriate indicators.
Finding an appropriate set of indicators of sustainable development
for a community, a city, a region, a country or even the world is not an easy task. It requires knowledge of what
is important for the viability of the systems involved, and how that contributes to sustainable development. The
number of representative indicators should be as small as possible, but as large as essential.
p.1 There is only one alternative to sustainability: unsustainability. [JLJ - perhaps uncertain sustainability
is also possible.]
p.1 Threats to sustainability of a system require urgent attention
if their rate of change begins to approach the speed with which the system can adequately respond. As the rate of
change overwhelms this ability to respond, the system loses its viability and sustainability.
p.1 We must be able to recognize the presence or absence of sustainability, or of threats to sustainability,
in the systems under our stewardship. We need proper indicators to provide this information, to tell us where
we stand with respect to the goal of sustainability.
p.4 Sustainability is a dynamic concept. Societies and their environments change...
and a sustainable society must allow and sustain such change, i.e., it must allow continuous, viable and vigorous development,
which is what we mean by sustainable development. The result of such adaptation as a result of selection from a wide
range of possibilities cannot be foretold. Even though the factors constraining the development process and
the processes driving it are known, the path of sustainable development is still the unpredictable result of an evolutionary
process. The shape and form of a sustainable society must allow perpetual change in order to be sustainable; it can
neither be planned nor predicted.
p.6 All dynamic processes take time... posing severe restrictions on what can be done, and how quickly or
slowly things can be changed. The characteristic time constants of essential processes, i.e., their characteristic rates or
speeds, introduce an eighth set of constraints, c8. Of particular importance is the ratio of rates of threat to rates of response:
if responses cannot keep up with threats, viability and sustainability are at risk.
Role of evolution: Sustainable development implies constant evolutionary, self-organizing
and adaptive change. For this the widest possible spectrum of adaptive responses to new challenges should be available
for potential adoption. But this means that diversity of processes and functions is one of the important prerequisites
for sustainability. The greater the number of different innovative options, the better. Diversity allows timely adaptation
by offering options, some of which may turn out to be better suited to cope with present conditions than others.
p.6 Despite the uncertainty of the direction of sustainable development,
it is necessary to identify the essential component systems and to define indicators that can provide essential and reliable
information about the viability of each and of the total system.
Prudence suggests watching the viability of each of these
systems.
p.7 A number of requirements follow for finding indicators of sustainable
development:
• Indicators of sustainable development are needed to guide policies and decisions at all levels
of society: village, town, city, county, state, region, nation, continent and world.
• These indicators must
represent all important concerns: An ad hoc collection of indicators that just seem relevant is not adequate. A more
systematic approach must look at the interaction of systems and their environment.
• The number of indicators
should be as small as possible, but not smaller than necessary. That is, the indicator set must be comprehensive
and compact, covering all relevant aspects.
• The process of finding an indicator set must be participatory to ensure
that the set encompasses the visions and values of the community or region for which it is developed.
• Indicators
must be clearly defined, reproducible, unambiguous, understandable and practical. They must reflect the interests
and views of different stakeholders.
• From a look at these indicators, it must be possible to deduce the viability
and sustainability of current developments, and to compare with alternative development paths.
• A framework, a process
and criteria for finding an adequate set of indicators of sustainable development are needed.
p.8 A deeper look at the world reveals many relationships and component
systems that are important to the operation and viability of the total system, even though they are not immediately obvious.
A systems view is, therefore, required for capturing and understanding essential relationships.
The crucial part is identifying the essential relationships in a
system. This requires a process of aggregation and condensation of available information, and the directed search
for missing information needed for a comprehensive description of the system. This process of systems analysis is guided by
the particular task, and the knowledge and experience of the analysts. It requires choice and selection at every stage. A
circumspect and self-critical approach by analysts is essential. It should be coupled with independent analysis by others
with different points of view, representing in particular the interests of those who may be affected by policy decisions.
The result of this effort is some kind of a model - a mental model, a verbal description, or a more formal mathematical or
computer model. This model is then used to identify indicators providing essential information about the system.
p.9 The process of condensing large amounts of information to a
recognizable pattern of a few indicators is not unique to systems analysis. It is actually accomplished continuously by each
of us. It is only in this way that we can comprehend events around us and respond appropriately. Indicators
facilitate orientation in a complex world.
We live by such indicators... If we want to assess
how we are doing as individuals or as society, we have to look at indicators that provide relevant information about current
and possible future developments... Indicators represent valuable information... The indicators we watch
mean something to us, they are of value to us because they tell us something that is in some way important to us. They help
us to construct a picture of the state of our environment on which we can base intelligent decisions to protect and
promote what we care about. Indicators, therefore, are also an expression of values... Essential indicators are not always
obvious. Learning to handle a complex system means learning to recognize a specific set of indicators, and to assess
what their current state means for the health, or viability, of the system. Often this learning of indicators is
intuitive, informal, subconscious
p.10 Indicator sets... have to provide vital information providing a picture
about the current state and corresponding viability of that system
p.12 A single indicator... cannot capture all vital aspects of sustainable
development
p.14 A systems approach is required to structure the search for
indicators
p.20 We now know what we need and want as indicators: system variables
that provide us with all essential information about the viability of a system and its rate of change and about how that contributes
to sustainable development of the overall system. It is more difficult to actually define a suitable set of indicators
for a given application. In what follows, a framework and a process for defining a comprehensive set of indicators for sustainable
development will be presented. For this, some essential system concepts are needed.
p.24 Indicators of sustainable development must inform us about the state
of the system we are concerned about. Since that state is significantly determined by the system’s environment, the
indicators must reliably capture important aspects of the system’s interaction with its environment. Indicators are
related to the system environment, and it makes sense to start the search by first looking at properties of system environments.
p.25 with proper attention to these fundamental orientations or basic orientors
of systems toward general properties of their environment, we could design systems to be successful in a given environment.
The indicators we are looking for would have to reflect how well the basic system needs or basic orientors are satisfied under
given circumstances.
p.25 As humans we use various indicators to guide our decisions
and actions. Indicators are quantitative or qualitative measurements of the state of something that is important
to us, like our body temperature, heart beat or blood pressure.
But why are these indicators important? Because they provide information
about the state of our health. And why do we want to have information about our health? Because it is vitally
important to our existence. The concern for health and, more fundamentally, for existence represents very
important interests that orient most of our decisions and actions, directly or indirectly. We use the term orientors
to represent such interests, values, criteria or objectives. Orientors are labels for certain categories of concerns
or interests. Different systems may have the same orientors, but would have different corresponding indicators.
p.26 The set of indicators we pick should provide complete
and reliable information about satisfaction - or lack thereof - of all orientors. If we need indicators for sustainable
development, we should be clear about what we mean by this concept, and what orientors would have to be satisfied to ensure
a path of sustainable development. Appropriate indicators will follow from this analysis... the orientor concept has recently
been applied extensively in ecosystem studies (e.g., F. M�ller, M. Leupelt (eds.), 1998. Eco targets, goal functions,
and orientors
p.32 Basic orientors represent the most fundamental aspects of systems orientation.
The basic orientors resulting from the fundamental environmental properties are identical across all self-organizing systems,
irrespective of their functional type or physical nature.
p.33 Each of the basic orientors is assumed to stand for a unique requirement.
That means that a minimum of attention must be paid to each of them, and that compensation of deficits of one orientor by
over-fulfillment of other basic orientors is not possible. For example, a deficit of FREEDOM OF ACTION in a society cannot
be compensated by a surplus of SECURITY. Viability requires adequate satisfaction of each basic orientor.
p.33 The basic orientor currently ‘in the minimum’ is the limiting
factor of system development
p.43 To stay viable and sustainable, a system must be able to respond
or adapt to threats before they get a chance to do serious damage.
p.44-45 we must define indicators that give as a clear picture of the ratio
of system response rate to orientor response rate. Existence... Effectiveness... Freedom of Action... Security...
Adaptability... Coexistence... the system is not viable if any of the orientor satisfactions, expressed by the rate
of response to rate of threats, has a value of less than one
p.48-49 Viability depends on balanced minimum basic orientor satisfaction,
and it is the orientor deficits that threaten sustainability. Hence, we must focus on those component systems that show such
deficits... The selection of indicators is contingent on having a fair amount of information about a system... Defining indicators
of viability, therefore, requires at least a good conceptual if not formalized and/or computerized model of the system.
p.57 Defining indicator sets: procedure...
• Conceptual understanding
of the total system.We cannot hope to find indicators representing the viability of systems and subsystems unless
we have at least a crude, but essentially realistic, understanding of the total system and know what to look for.
This requires a conceptual understanding as - at least - a good mental model.
• Identifying representative indicators.
We have to select a small number of representative indicators from a vast number of potential candidates in the system and
its subsystems. This means concentrating on essential variables of those subsystems that are essential to viability of the
total system, and/or aggregating information.
• Quantifying basic orientor satisfaction. We must arrive at statements
about whether the viability of certain subsystems or the total system is threatened and, if so, how seriously. This requires
translating indicator information into information about orientor satisfaction.
• Participative process. These three
procedural steps require a large number of choices that necessarily reflect the knowledge and values of those who make them.
It is essential to bring in a wide spectrum of knowledge, experience, mental models, and social and environmental concerns
to ensure that a comprehensive indicator set is found for a given application.
p.64 While systems theory can provide a systematic framework for guiding
the search for indicators and assessing viability and sustainability, it cannot determine the final choice of indicators.
This task remains to be completed by the investigators and it requires their subjective choice. The results will obviously
be influenced by background, knowledge and experience of the investigators.
p.65 A search for indicators can only be as complete and comprehensive as
the imagination, knowledge and experience of the investigators allow.
p.73 Each indicator is chosen to represent the particular aspect of orientor
assessment for which it was selected, and only that aspect. It must be judged under that particular aspect only, not under
others (for which it may also be relevant).
p.73 Each indicator must be understood as representing certain general trends;
it should not merely be viewed within its own limited context... a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and orientor
theory requires that we choose indicators representing the weakest features of a system.
p.84 The method of finding indicators of sustainability by considering
measures of basic orientor satisfaction (Table 4) is completely general. It can be applied to a family, a firm, or
a country, as well as to an individual. [JLJ - perhaps even to a computer attempting to manage search efforts (through an
exponentially growing tree of possible move sequences) when playing a game.]
p.93-94 it was pointed out in Sec. 4.3 that the most useful indicators for
sustainability assessments are provided by Biesiot ratios, i.e., ratios of the rate of system response to the rate of system
threat with respect to a particular basic orientor satisfaction.
p.107 Sustainable development is a particular type of development that is
characterized by certain criteria. These criteria of sustainability and evolutionary development can be clearly specified.
They provide particular orientations to the systems and actors that are part of the development, causing them to prefer certain
actions, paths and impacts compared with others. For assessing progress and actual or expected consequences of actions, the
actors need a comprehensive set of indicators describing the state of the systems under their care and of their environment.
