p.xiii Mastering the art of problem solving takes more than proficiency
with basic calculations: it requires familiarity with how people use information and requires learning about things as diverse
as exploring your ideology, telling good stories, and distinguishing facts from values.
p.5 Most people attack a new problem by relying heavily on
the tools and skills that are most familiar to them. While this approach can work well for problems
that are similar to those previously solved, it often fails, and fails miserably, when a new problem is particularly
novel or vexing. In these circumstances, it is best to assume nothing and treat the problem as if you have never seen anything
like it before... The ideal is to combine the curiosity and the non-judgmental observation of a beginner
with the experience of a senior analyst. Together, these skills can be an immensely powerful combination.
p.9 Donald Norman... first introduced the Cycle of Action:... The major
steps in the cycle can be summarized as follows: Decide what to do, based on your goals; Do it (execution); Assess the results
(evaluation); Decide what to do next, and then repeat the process
p.14,16 People often measure only those things that are easiest
to measure. Like the man looking for his keys under the street lamp (because that's where the light is) even though
he lost his key chain down the street, you are likely to be led astray if what you are measuring is only peripherally
related to what you care about... The Cycle of Action can become the Cycle of Inaction when information is diverted
from its intended audience.
p.27 The physicist Alan Sokal points out that science is predicated on two
key attitudes: begin willing to accept what you find; and being willing to discover that you are wrong.
p.31,33 Anyone who states that ideology has no effect on decisions is either
lying or deluded. Everyone has an ideology whether explicit or not. Ideology provides a simplified model of the world that
reflects our values, biases, and experiences. It helps people make decisions in the face of imperfect knowledge... Ideology
is one connection between the world of ideas and the world of choices... Ideology is the filter through which you
view the world. By exploring your own body of beliefs, you can more reliably make choices that are consistent with
your values, and you will also be better prepared to use numbers responsibly and effectively in your analyses, writing, and
presentations.
p.62 Don't confuse things that are merely countable with those that
really count. Some analysts systematically ignore things that can't be turned into a number and assume that because
these things can't be measured, they are unimportant.
p.68 Question Authority... Recall what a Yale University management professor
said about Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service: "The concept is interesting and well-formed,
but in order to earn better than a 'C' the idea must be feasible." Smith went on to found Federal Express Corporation
p.87-89 Every human choice embodies certain values... if an analyst
makes a choice, that analyst has also made a value judgment... I define facts as assertions about the physical world
that can be verified through experiment, direct measurement, or observation... Values, on the other hand,
are explicitly subjective and are an expression of the ideas and feelings that are most important to us....
The purpose of analysis is to help you illuminate the facts so that you can understand the choices of others and best use
your values to make good choices of your own. Value choices are inescapable, which is why separating demonstrable facts from
value judgments is so essential. Do so, and you are sure to be on a solid footing.
p.107 Life is about making choices in the face of uncertainty.
p.124 [UC Berkeley professor John] Holdren's advice when dealing with data
is to "be suspicious, skeptical, and cynical. Assume nothing." Though it may sound paranoid to the uninitiated, such caution
is an absolute necessity for the seasoned problem solver.
p.125 "An explicit model is a laboratory for the imagination." Models
allow you to experiment, test, and learn about the world in a systematic way without leaving your office... A
model is an equation or set of equations that describe how something you care about changes when other things change.
p.131 People involved in fast-moving new ventures usually don't
have time to research issues thoroughly and don't have money to hire someone to do it for them (sometimes even the
people they hire don't have the time either!). Often, back-of-the-envelope calculations are the best that can be done
[JLJ -fast and frugal heuristics?] in the time allotted. The law of averages keeps the accuracy of such calculations
from deteriorating too much because you are just as likely to overestimate as to underestimate (assuming that you're not biased
one way or another). Across all the assumptions you make, these deviations average out... An important part of this
process is balancing accuracy against the time needed to create the calculation. Back-of-the-envelope calculations
are meant to be quick, so they usually rely on relatively simple models.
Once the relationships between the key inputs and the desired
output are established, you'll need to determine which of the inputs you know and which you'll have to assume for purposes
of initial calculations. Don't get hung up on a particular number. The best thing to do is to carry out the
calculations using the very roughest of approximations for those things you don't know, and refine the inputs later.
p.136, 141 The future is uncertain, but people keep trying
to forecast it anyway... Forecasts are an integral part of the Cycle of Action. They are most useful in developing
the action sequence, but they can also be important in the process of goal setting and in the evaluation of how actual events
compare to our goals. In spite of their failings... they are an essential part of life and work... it is important
to adopt strategies that are robust in the face of inevitably imperfect forecasts
