Copyright (c) 2013 John L. Jerz

Operationalising Adaptive Campaigning (Grisogono, Ryan, 2007)
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The Case for Using Probabilistic Knowledge in a Computer Chess Program (John L. Jerz)
Resilience in Man and Machine

p.6

  • Sense: feedback for adaption, learn what to sense, measure effectiveness
  • Decide
  • Adapt: Modifying actions, Be prepared to change if needed
  • Act: Act first, Act in order to learn - probing actions, Act to create effect - decisive actions

Extends OODA

p.15 increase the probability of obtaining desired outcomes by:
finding and identifying existing adaptive mechanisms in the systems that contribute to the outcomes we care about,
–selecting those adaptive mechanisms that are the best targets of our interventions, and
shaping perceptions of what constitutes success and failure in those mechanisms, or by modifying aspects of their three other elements so that the system will as a result, but of its own ‘volition’, take a different course.
a more effective strategy than trying to force the system to undertake (or not) particular actions, because:-
if the system and its context truly are complex, then trying to work out the right actions in advance becomes a futile exercise, and
–the principle of economy of effort –a subtle but effective intervention to align system’s own adaptive mechanisms with our intents,
desired outcomes with less apparent interference and exertion and more precision in effects.

p.16 Predictability requires knowing how system behaves; Influencability requires knowing how system adapts.

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