p.71 the kind of problems complex systems science
applies to is not determined by the particular composition of the system (the parts could be atoms,
ants or armies) but by the nature of the relationships between the parts... When faced
with a messy real world problem, the complex systems lexicon provides an interdisciplinary framework for making sense
of the problem that draws on insights from across the sciences.
p.71 There is no concise definition of complexity that all complex systems
scientists are agreed upon. However, the essence of complexity is related to the amount of variety within the system,
as well as how interdependent the different components are. Interdependence means that changes in the system generate many
circular ripple effects, while variety means there are many possible alternative states of the system and its parts.
Because interdependencies are the result of many interactions over time, complexity is fundamentally a dynamic characteristic
of a system. In the table below, the concepts of emergence, self-organisation, autonomous agents, attractors and adaptation
all contribute to a deeper understanding of complexity. All are capable of generating novelty - new variety or new patterns
that increase the complexity of the system.
p.74 This section describes seven insights from the latest research
in complex systems science. Together, these insights demonstrate how complex systems science offers a theoretical
foundation, a coherent framework, and a common language for explaining why some approaches to complex warfighting succeed
and others fail.
p.74 deep but narrow expertise does not on its own help to solve an issue
that demands a holistic assessment of the context to derive an appropriate response. Nor will decomposing the problem into
its components work, because this ignores the trade-offs and relationships between parts. Complex problems cannot
be solved using techniques that are successful for complicated problems.
p.76 [Alan] Beyerchen’s two major conclusions were that an
understanding of complex systems (or at least a non-linear intuition) may be a prerequisite for fully understanding
Clausewitz, and that the non-linear sciences may help to establish fundamental limits to predictability in
war.
p.76 All of the concepts described above that contribute to complexity
- emergence, self-organisation, autonomous agents, attractors and adaptation - are present in war. All of these sources
of complexity generate novelty and surprise. An important implication is that war is fundamentally and irreducibly uncertain
and unpredictable. This means that efforts to predict and control in warfare will often only mask the true complexity
of the situation
