Measuring Success and Failure in an 'Adaptive' Army (M. Ryan, 2009)

p.23 The study of complex adaptive systems is also remarkably relevant to military organisations. Indeed, land combat, as one author noted, is a complex adaptive system. Combat is essentially ‘a nonlinear dynamical system composed of many interacting semi-autonomous and hierarchically organized agents continuously adapting to a changing environment’. This continuous adaptation is particularly apparent in any study of the full spectrum of military endeavour and the way in which military organisations must constantly adapt to remain successful in an environment that changes continuously.

p.24 First, exploiting adaptation is the most effective way to address the challenges of complexity. The environment in which contemporary operations are conducted—and thus for which forces are prepared—is constantly changing, and the different interactions at different levels that characterise this change are too many and varied to accurately monitor. Second, using an approach geared to adaptation allows the Army to manage these complexities better, because adaptation does not rely on perfect situational awareness. Because of the iterative nature of adaptation (illustrated in the adaptation cycle below), an approach based on constant adaptation allows the Army to test a strategy, evaluate the outcome, modify if required and then repeat the process. The development of perfect plans or solutions in advance is not required—the Army can grow its strategies and solutions in a systemic fashion to suit the changing environment.

Finally, whether adaptation becomes the Army’s watchword or not, it will certainly be exploited by others—not necessarily adversaries. Allies and partners from other government agencies (even contractors) will all be moving through their own cycles of adaptation—consciously or otherwise. The Army has no choice but to embrace adaptation—and win the adaptation battle—in order to meet the other actors in the environments it occupies on equal terms.

p.25 The ability to measure success and failure in moving towards definitions of fitness is one of the key elements of an organisation that possesses the ability to adapt.

p.26 So, in an approach that is characterised by adaptability, not only must success itself be measured, but those measures of success—for different scales and timeframes—must also be subject to adaptation as the surrounding environment changes.

Key considerations in establishing measures of success are likely to include:

• measuring the speed of the Army’s ability to adapt to its environment and its capacity to replace capabilities of lower or declining fitness with those that are better suited to that environment

• the inherent capacity to protect useful capabilities; that is, the ability to retain corporate knowledge that sustains or improves performance

• the ability to influence the surrounding environment (for example, Defence or government) to maintain or improve its fitness locally, or foster the emergence of habitable regions elsewhere.