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Toward a General Theory of Exchange: Strategic Decisions and Complexity (Khwaja, 2013)

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Dr. Javaid R. Khwaja

JLJ - Economics... this guy goes on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on....

The results of an interaction-mess of 7 Billion people interacting with 7 Billion people are reflected in the economy. Economists attempt to model and study this interaction. Now, read Khwaja's 572-page expansion on that brief summary, including a "kinky demand curve" that is probably not what you think it is...

p.9-10 Herbert Simon... His seminal work entitled Models of Man (1957), postulates a theory of bounded rationality, contending that the "cognitive limitation," leads rational actors, to develop "simplified models," in order to meet challenges of reality. Thus to be able to understand and forecast,

...we must understand the way in which this simplified model is constructed, and its construction will certainly be related to 'man's' psychological properties, as a perceiving, thinking and learning animal.

p.10 His [Simon's] problems with rational expectations approach, consist in terms of relatively inadequate attention, paid to the problems of "potential and attempted mutual outguessing behavior." According to him:

Complexity is deep in the nature of things, and discovering tolerable approximation procedures and heuristics, that permit huge spaces to be searched very selectively lies at the heart of intelligence whether human or artificial. A theory of rationality that does not give an account of problem-solving in the face of complexity is sadly incomplete. (Simon, 1978 p. 12)

p.33 Exchange is a very fundamental phenomenon in the study of human processes... Economists often visualize exchange, in relation to the process of equilibrium in a market place.

p.34 Clearly, it would be a situation, when economic actors encounter, unintended consequences of their actions in a time period. As a result, they are expected to correct their plans, in the subsequent time periods, thereby correcting the situation, and arriving at a resolution, where they no longer encounter any unintended consequences any more.

p.187 Clearly enough, a greater analytical efficiency of a model involves a comprehension and a grasp that it may provide in terms of a vantage point and a vision of the constellation of causative forces, based on exact thought.

p.187 The success or failure of an applied model is reflected in its ability to forecast the nature as well as the intensity of the interrelations and interactions of the various elements and the processes. A model is considered appropriate only if the differences and discrepancies of the real values, from the values produced by the model, can be attributed and narrated in terms of random errors.

p.188 Expectations lend a vital and crucial role in this domain of uncertainties about future scarcities, while unintended consequences of the economic decisions sequentially and perpetually involve a redesigning process in each successive period.

p.189 Dynamic theory calls for planning and re-planning and it is in this context that expectations have a role to perform.

p.214 He revisits the familiar kinky profit curve... He speculates that there is an equivalent "ratchet mechanism" that constrains the kink point. [JLJ - and this means what?]

p.224 During 1930s it was observed that in United States in the face of declining costs of production, manufactured products products prices were inflexible and "downward sticky." This characteristic was considered by Paul Sweezy to be more akin to oligopoly [JLJ - An oligopoly is a market form in which a market or industry is dominated by a small number of sellers (oligopolists)] and he labeled it as kinky demand curve solution of oligopoly... Kinky demand curve assumption is a reflection of business psychology under oligopoly [JLJ - this is why I dropped the Economics class I signed up for in College. It seems to want to be a science, rather than to be true scientific activity.]

p.253 From the vantage point of configuration of a game tree, one is likely to observe that a game tree looks like a decision tree.

p.267 It is a proxy, an indicator and a signal of their relative ability.

p.328 Economic indicators measure changes in significant aspects of the economy. They express, something about the composition, structure or functions of the economy, and express it in quantitative terms, that can be compared with similar measures in the past or future.

p.493 An environment of complex exchange, has the attribute of nonlinear relationships. Consequently, a small perturbation is capable of causing a huge effect. It is unlike linear correlation, that produces a direct and proportional effect, according to the extent of the cause. A complex and open market system, typically enough inhibits the process of determination of its limits and bounds. It can be portrayed by a dynamic net of nodes, with dynamic connections, with substantial inter-area spread. Complexity of such layout is particularly highlighted by the possibilities of the nesting, feedback loops. These component parts continuously exhibit a process of learning by doing, and adaptation. The dyadic structure of the complexity often produces, a structure, that is susceptible, to cascading failures, such as exemplified in the failure of United States monetary networks in 2008, or electricity failure starting from a Cleveland grid and spreading to entire north-east region of United States. Complex exchange is usually an emergent phenomenon, that can be diagnosed, by the study of components, at a higher level.