p.7 socio-economic scenarios can be useful tools for making better-informed policy decisions... will the action be sufficient to provide for a future...? And what of the... change impacts...? ...Socio-economic scenarios are one way of answering these questions and improving our understanding of our future vulnerabilities.

p.7 project teams... report that constructing socioeconomic scenarios is one of their greatest challenges... Developing socioeconomic scenarios of the future is important because socioeconomic changes may substantially increase or decrease vulnerability to climate change... these changes may increase the vulnerability of some aspects of human welfare... vulnerability may be reduced in some sectors but possibly increased in others. These interactive changes can be explored (although not predicted) through the development of alternative socioeconomic scenarios of the future.

p.7 The purpose of this handbook is to assist countries in developing socioeconomic scenarios, in conjunction with the Adaptation Policy Framework (UNDP, 2004), for analyses of vulnerability and adaptation as part of their national communications under the UNFCCC.

p.7 For some purposes, including only current climate variability in socioeconomic scenarios may suffice to measure vulnerability and point to short-term strategies. However, developing additional socioeconomic scenarios that account for longer-term climate change will help to evaluate the ultimate consequences of short-term strategies.

p.7 Ideally, scenarios should be nested in a larger national, regional, or global framework... This handbook provides a systematic framework for preparing socioeconomic scenarios for assessment of both climate change impact and adaptation across differing spatial scales.

p.8 Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects that moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Can be anticipatory or reactive, private or public, autonomous or planned.

Adaptive Capacity Degree to which adjustments to projected or actual changes in climate are possible in practices, processes, or structures of systems. Refers particularly to adjustments in anticipation of change.

Coping Capacity Ability to adjust to climate events in the short term.

Indicator A statistic of direct normative interest that facilitates concise, comprehensive, and balanced judgments about the condition of major aspects of a society.

Proxy Literally, something used in place of another. Proxies fulfill three criteria: they (1) summarize or otherwise simplify relevant information; (2) make visible or perceptible phenomena of interest; and (3) quantify, measure, and communicate relevant information.

Resilience Tendency to maintain integrity when subject to disturbance.

Sector An aspect of overall vulnerability that may be analyzed separately with regard to its impact on human welfare.

Sensitivity Degree to which a system will respond to a change in climatic conditions.

Scenario A coherent, internally consistent, and plausible description of a possible future state of the world (see p. 5, "What is a scenario?").

Storyline A qualitative, holistic picture of the general structure and values of society in the future, describing conditions that might be brought about by human choices concerning economic and social policy, human reproduction, occupations, and use of energy and technology.

Vulnerability Extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system, depending not only on the system's sensitivity but also on its ability to adapt to new climatic conditions.

Vulnerability Assessment An analysis of the gap between the impacts of climate change and capacity to adapt to those impacts (Burton et. al, 2004).

p.9 Scenarios of climate change and its impacts are generally based on knowledge of the physical world... we cannot fully understand how vulnerable we may be to climate change without knowing something about future socioeconomic conditions... Careful selection of the factors to include in a socioeconomic scenario is obviously important if the results are to be meaningful input to a vulnerability analysis. This handbook will offer guidance on selecting such factors as well as on sources of existing socioeconomic scenarios that can be adapted for use in a specified vulnerability analysis.

p.9 A scenario is not a prediction. It is "a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world" (Carter et al. 1994)... (Nakicenovic et al. 2000:594) further defines a scenario as

a plausible description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions ("scenario logic") about key relationships and driving forces (e.g., rate of technology changes, prices). Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts.

p.10 scenarios should set the global, regional, and country context within which vulnerability (and adaptation options) can be assessed... Useful scenarios recognize that factors ranging from the global to the local are interrelated. The focus of well-designed scenarios goes beyond merely identifying factors and collecting data and will consider how the factors interact in a given place and time affect human well-being.

p.10 the researchers of the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) developed "storylines" - that is, coherent, alternative pictures of the future within which certain trends make sense. Storylines provide qualitative, holistic portraits of the general structure and values of society. They describe conditions that might be produced by human choices about economic and social policy

p.11 Proxy Values: Building Blocks for Scenarios
Vulnerability and adaptive capacity are in many respects intangible and difficult to measure directly, so analysts use proxy values (that is, variables representing these abstract concepts that can be clearly characterized and possibly quantified), from which indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity can be built.

p.11 Desirable proxies fulfill three criteria. They: (1) summarize or otherwise simplify relevant information; (2) make visible or perceptible phenomena of interest; and (3) quantify, measure, and communicate relevant information... A primary consideration in developing storylines and choosing proxies is their usefulness for policymaking.

To construct quantitative scenarios of the future relevant to climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity, analysts select relevant proxies, collect or locate appropriate data, and estimate future values for these proxies.

p.12 The goal of scenario development is to explore alternative futures both qualitatively and (if possible) quantitatively so that you can assess the implications of current decisions and long-range policy for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Scenarios can assist you in looking at the international context of planning for climate change as well as decision-making aimed at reducing vulnerability and increasing adaptive capacity.

p.12 Thus, a useful product from your scenario development process should:

• Reflect sufficient input from stakeholders to ensure usefulness of the scenarios
• Represent the important factors in society and economy
• Account for the effects of climate variability and longer-term climate change on society and the economy
• Be consistent across sectoral, national, and global scales (but, note that a single global scenario can be consistent with many different national and sectoral scenarios)
• Support exploration of at least two different, coherent directions for the future (i.e., alternative storylines).

p.12 The process of thinking through each scenario and inferring the key implications for vulnerability at the sectoral level is far more important than focusing exclusively on specific indicators.

p.13 The choice of proxy variables must reflect their importance to the future of the region. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between the number and complexity of variables used and the difficulty and complexity of conducting the analysis... Economic development and wealth, for example, can enhance adaptive capacity by enabling greater resilience and a more robust recovery after an adverse event, increasing the capacity to insure against potential losses, and creating a safety net

p.13-14 As socioeconomic conditions change, the methods for maintaining and enhancing a society’s food security typically change... Such changes may either increase or decrease vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

p.15 Given socioeconomic scenarios such as those briefly described above, what types of changes might be anticipated...? How might... security be affected? Can we identify a relatively small and focused set of indicators to provide insight on these questions...? ...The following criteria provide useful guidelines for selecting and developing indicators:

• Appropriateness and relevance: The indicator should describe a meaningful characteristic of the sensitivity, vulnerability, or adaptive capacity of the system.
• Transparency: The formula and data for calculating the indicator should not be unduly complex or difficult to interpret.
• Feasibility: Indicators are based on data. These data must be available to the practitioner or else suitable substitutes need to be identified.
• Relationship to national scenario: For the purposes of this guidance, either the underlying data or the indicator itself should be linked to key variables or attributes of an overall socioeconomic scenario. This criterion enables the indicator and sector storyline to be consistent with the overall scenario assumptions.

p.19 our storylines of the future will help you determine the elements that most influence that future and construct ways to represent - and, if possible, to quantify - those elements.

p.21 Life expectancy is a good indicator of public health... Literacy indicates the spread of education and access to information.

p.23 All of these are possible paths; your task is to choose two or more likely paths, given your current understanding.

p.26 building socioeconomic scenarios is an exercise in creating alternative visions of the future - visions that can be informed and differentiated by critically assessing key features of the socioeconomic system and drawing out the implications... This guidance serves as a beginning for analysts who, it is hoped, will take from these examples a structure and process for initiating their own analysis of the implications of different development paths for vulnerability to climate change. It will prove successful if analysts can build on and adapt these ideas to fit their specific country situations, and develop suitable storylines of their own that are internally and externally consistent with the broader set of scenarios developed to assess climate change vulnerability and adaptation.