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Combat Modeling (Washburn, Kress, 2002)

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Alan Washburn, Moshe Kress

This book is $145.00. This book is expensive. Buy one for yourself and one for a friend.


p.1 A model is an abstraction of reality... The need for models stems from the fact that the real world is too complicated for us to reason about and contains many details that are not necessarily relevant. Our limited intellects permit us to deal with abstractions that retain the essence of the matter without the distracting details.

p.2 A deterministic model states exactly what will happen, as if there were no uncertainty.

p.5 Many combat models are multi-stage in the sense that stage 1 determines some important input... to stage 2.

p.6 deterministic models are simpler than stochastic models, both conceptually and computationally.

p.7 Combat models sometimes incorporate parameters whose exact meaning is hard to divine, even with an English description... Such parameters are typically present because combat models must sometimes deal with aspects of the real world that cannot be ignored, even though they are poorly understood.

p.9 A model, being an abstraction, will always involve ignoring certain aspects of the real world.

p.15 In combat, man specializes in exerting lethal force at a distance

p.98 Models, however approximate, are still a prerequisite for thought.

p.111 Analysts have followed two separate lines of thought in trying to deal with multi-sided decision-making situations. One line of thought is theoretical and leads to game theory (Section 6.2). The other is experimental and leads to wargaming (Section 6.3).

p.129 The major recommendation for using wargaming as an analytic tool is that it gets around most of the difficulties mentioned earlier in discussing game theory. Game theory requires that payoffs be explicit functions of the strategies.

p.129 Wargaming can be used for analysis as well as education and training... Wargaming's use as an analytical tool is not as obvious as its use in education

p.130 Thomas and Deemer (1957)... admit its [wargaming] usefulness for getting the "feel" of a competitive situation... whatever the objections to it, research wargaming is often the only feasible technique for examining a genuinely competitive situation. Theoretical and experimental approaches each provide insights into combat, but a great deal of uncertainty must remain.