|
p.4 For reasons that will be explained in this book, agility has moved from a nice-to-have capability to an essential... capability... This book is a call to action. The message is that the world has changed and that agility is the appropriate - perhaps the only - response. [JLJ - perhaps it would be better to say that it is harder to be non-agile and successful today.]
p.12 Rigidity results from the inability to change.
p.43 Surviving, and hence successful entities and systems, have either been designed or have adapted to their environment and the stresses that are a normal part of their environment or competitive space.
p.61 Agility is not a way of reducing problem difficulty, but rather a way of dealing with the combined effects of the presence of complexity and uncertainty... the characteristics of complexity directly challenge our ability to fully understand situations or control outcomes... Let us review the list of truths about complexity and see how its presence reduces our ability to understand, reduces our control, and increases risk.
p.62 The whole is more than the sum of the parts.
This property of complexity takes off the table the main approach we have been taught to tackling difficult problems. This approach, known as reductionism, involves breaking up the problem into manageable pieces. That is, to decompose the problems into a series of smaller, easier problems that can be solved.
Small changes in initial conditions may produce large changes in outcomes.
This property of complexity gives us little room for error and makes reliable prediction all but impossible.
p.62 The response surface contains discontinuities.
This property of complexity takes away approaches to improving performance based upon incremental improvements.
p.62 Even perfect information about the initial conditions is not sufficient to predict behaviors and outcomes.
This property of complexity serves to put a limit on the value of information and calls into question the underlying assumptions and the investment strategy of information age organizations that focus single-mindedly on providing the right information to the right place at the right time.
p.63 It is beyond our current abilities to definitively establish cause and effect relationships between individual behaviors and outcomes.
This property of complexity makes it likely that we will face situations that we do not completely understand and cannot hope to understand.
Global behavior emerges from the set of local interactions that take place.
If it is local interactions that give rise to the outcomes that occur, we can no longer think about organizing activities solely from a top-down perspective. The simple fact is that complex systems or situations cannot be predicted or controlled. The best that one can hope for is to exert some influence to keep behaviors within acceptable bounds.
p.63 Agility is not only the logical response to complexity and the uncertainty, risk, and time pressures that are associated with complex situations, tasks, and problems, but perhaps the only response.
p.66 Agility is the capability to successfully cope with changes in circumstances. [JLJ - I would say that agility is the ability to create meaningful threats, combined with the ability to successfully counter an attack at a strategic weak point, as determined by your opponent. Agility causes difficulty for an opponent to form schemes of attack or defense. "Changes in circumstances" is too vague - in whose opinion? ]
p.67 Traditional preparation activities such as planning, education, training, exercise, and rehearsal are designed to help entities with known requirements. In practice... entities are simply not prepared for the circumstances they encounter.
p.68 the traditional approach to rational decision-making is based on expected values... not only are humans not particularly good at estimating probabilities in general, they are even worse at understanding low probability events.
p.79 The winners are those entities who learned to leverage the new technologies and co-evolve their approaches and business models to cope with the new challenges and increased complexity present in their environments (or perhaps were just better designed or adapted). The losers have been entities that would or could not adapt.
p.121 potential is not the same as realized... As it turned out, the practice of NCW [JLJ - Network Centric Warfare] has fallen far short of its theoretical limits.
p.122 Critics of NCW [JLJ - here the author defends his failed-to-be-realized NCW concept and bashes the critics that bashed him. We should review this section, because he will likely attack those who criticize his "I love agility and think you should too" concept, the same way]
p.146 The book, Connections, first published in 1978, preceded the PC and the internet. The basic idea, that we live in a world determined in large part by connections, remains central to our ability to understand and cope.
p.148 The existence of interactions, a change in one state that causes or influences a change in another state that in turn changes the first state or at least has the potential to do so, creates dependencies and interdependencies.
p.151 Complexity creates the clouds that are characteristic of the age of interactions.
p.152 The challenge of the age of interactions is to successfully cope with the potential adverse consequences of a clouded reality and take advantage of the opportunities enabled by the interactions that are possible.
p.153 The complexity of the age of interactions is a two-edged sword. The first edge is the complexity of the problems that challenge us. The second edge is the inevitable complexity of the solutions to these problems.
p.155 this new age, the age of interactions, provides opportunities as well as challenges. It is here we need to look for solutions.
p.156 This new approach accepts that we will not be able to adequately predict or plan. Instead, the focus of this new approach is to possess the attributes that enable an entity to cope effectively with change. In other words, entities need to focus on agility.
p.161 The crucial capability needed to improve one's chances to successfully meet the challenges inherent in the complex enterprises and endeavors that characterize this new age is no secret; it is agility.
p.162 at the heart of this survival guide is a very simple, easy-to-understand prescription... The prescription is as simple as it is effective.
"Keep your eye on the ball."
...The ball we need to keep our eyes on to survive in this new age is agility. But it is hard to keep one's eyes on agility when there are distractions that vie for our attention.
p.165 solutions and approaches that depend upon highly accurate information, near-complete knowledge, reductive analysis, and accurate prediction will, in the face of the increasing complexity of both the environment and the endeavors we undertake, simply not work.
p.166 To move to a more age-appropriate approach, one that involves a substantial investment in the capability to deal with uncertainty, we first need to accept the fact that we will need to deal with significant amounts of residual uncertainty, and this residual uncertainty will profoundly affect our ability to determine the appropriate actions to take and our ability to predict the complete set of effects of our actions.
p.177 While planning is indeed useful and we should not abandon planning, we must adjust our expectations. We must recognize that we need to do more than plan. We must prepare. In this case, preparing for the future in the new age means we must develop agility. This is the agility imperative.
p.177 Without agility, there is no future.
p.179 The challenge is, of course, to understand the nature of agility. We must be able to understand: What are the key determinants of agility? How can agility be improved? How we can measure agility? How do we determine how much agility is needed? Only as we begin to understand agility, can we then take the appropriate actions to improve our agility and achieve the levels of agility required in this new age.
p.189 agility refers to a set of characteristics and behaviors that enable, for example, a person or organization to successfully cope in a dynamic environment.
p.190 Agility is the ability to successfully effect, cope with, and/or exploit changes in circumstances.
p.191 an entity is agile only if it achieves a satisfactory state or acceptable level of performance. Success in this context is subjective... the fact of success in an endeavor or in a competitive space does not imply agility. Agility explicitly requires change - the ability to deal with a dynamic situation.
p.194-195 Improving agility involves getting better at recognizing significant changes in the environment and developing the ability to respond appropriately. The greater the variety of circumstances that an entity can recognize and respond to the more agile the entity will be. A measure of agility needs to account for both the amount of variety and the levels of effectiveness that can be maintained.
p.197-199 What is agility?
Agility is a capability that enables an entity to succeed in changed circumstances.
Why do we need agility?
Circumstances are guaranteed to change in ways that are not anticipated or expected.
Do we need to consider all possible changes in circumstances?
No. Only some changes in circumstances are relevant. These are changes that have the potential to significantly reduce effectiveness or that provide an opportunity to significantly improve performance or efficiency.
Why are our traditional approaches to complexity and uncertainty inadequate or inappropriate?
Traditional approaches rely on either predicting the future or reducing uncertainty to manageable levels. Neither is possible given the complexity that is present.
How much agility do we need?
The amount of agility needed is a function of the complexity of the situation and the costs of error.
How can we measure agility?
When we speak of agility, we are either referring to manifest agility or potential agility. Manifest agility measures how well an entity has responded to a change in circumstances. Manifest agility is a relative measure - it is the difference between an as-is scenario and a might-have-been scenario. Potential agility is an estimate of how well an entity will respond to some future unspecified change in circumstances. Potential agility is a relative measure that can be used to compare the agility readiness of two entities or the relative impact on an entity’s potential agility of alternate approaches, policies, processes, or investment options.
How do we improve our agility?
Agility can be improved by putting in place or enhancing its enablers and by removing or reducing the effects of its inhibitors.
Does agility require that we must be equally good at everything and under all possible conditions?
No. Agility does not require an entity to be equally good in a changed circumstance, rather that an entity’s performance, effectiveness, and efficiency need to be satisfactory.
Are there situations where we do not need agility?
Yes. If there were no possibility of a change in circumstances then there would be no reason for an entity to seek or develop a capability to be agile. Therefore, investing any resources in agility would be a complete waste of effort. Instead, in this case, an entity should seek to improve its ability to deal with the circumstances, in effect, optimizing for these conditions.
p.200 Change is an essential prerequisite for agility. Without change entities do not need to be agile to be successful.
p.202 agility is the ability to cope successfully, that is, to maintain an acceptable level of effectiveness and efficiency in the face of changes in circumstances that result in a loss of equilibrium.
p.204
- Responsiveness
- Versatility
- Flexibility
- Resilience
- Innovativeness
- Adaptability
Understanding each of these components of agility and the ways in which they are related to one another and the overall agility of an entity is necessary to design, develop, and effectively employ strategies, approaches, methods, and tools needed to achieve an appropriate level of agility.
p.227 Requisite agility, by definition, gives us our best chance of successfully coping/exploiting since the analysis that determines how much agility is desirable includes a consideration of costs - both the costs associated with residual uncertainties and the adverse impacts that may result, and the costs of achieving this level of protection from risk.
Agility is power. The power of agility manifests itself in the increased effectiveness and efficiency of all aspects of enterprises... this new source of power lies... in the nature of the relationships that are possible between and among entities.
p.229 At this point is our journey of understanding, we have the conceptual building blocks we need to construct a generic model of agility.
p.230 there needs to be a model of self... and a model of the environment, and there needs to be a set of relationships between these two models that account for the influence of one on the other. Specifically, how the state of the environment impacts the state of self and how actions taken by self impact the environment.
p.230-231 One of the most challenging aspects of defining agility is how to measure it... to show how well an entity was able to cope with and/or exploit changes in circumstances... I needed to find a way to represent a set of changes of interest and depict the ability of an entity to deal with this set of changes... my efforts resulted in what I call an agility map
p.234-235 A change in circumstances has the potential to cause self's level of effectiveness or efficiency to move outside of the acceptable bounds set by self... If, for whatever reason, self perceives that it has moved outside of the acceptable range or is likely to do so as a result of an event that has occurred or is likely to occur, self will endeavor to take appropriate action... The action required may, at least for some period of time, restore equilibrium... self's response may trigger responses on the part of other entities and create a cascade of consequences that are, at best, difficult to predict... Understanding the nature of changes in circumstances is essential if one is to understand agility and develop this capability.
p.237 The greater the variety of circumstances that an entity can recognize and successfully respond to, the more agile the entity will be. [JLJ - the greater the variety of intelligent enemy-constructed schemes that an entity can recognize and successfully respond to, the more agile the entity will be. But true agility requires the ability to reconfigure-and-posture to meet an unplanned-for challenge. How exactly are you going to measure that?]
p.237 understanding the different kinds of changes that can take place is important for a systematic treatment of agility.
p.240 A process model is a task-oriented view of how an entity... responds to changes in circumstances and generates... indicants of task accomplishment... in the form of the values of a set of variables that is associated with the performance of mission-related tasks and/or mission outcomes. [JLJ - Arie de Geus thinks you create a model of the driving forces and create a wide variety of plausible scenarios of what is possible to happen next. Your portfolio of scenarios should show evidence of stretching-to-meet-the-challenge when one considers typical consequences at the scenario endpoints.]
p.242 If the situation could be counted on to remain so indefinitely, there would be no need for agility... Complex endeavors are characterized by unanticipated events and consequences. Agility is required to cope with the unanticipated events and consequences that have the potential to create effects that result in unacceptable levels of performance, effectiveness, and/or efficiency. Therefore, the next step in constructing a model of agility is to identify those changes in circumstances and conditions that have the potential to impact the measures of value and cause these to become outside acceptable bounds... The list of potential game changers is literally endless.
p.249 Moving from a descriptive model to a predictive model requires the ability to do forensic analysis.
p.249 Identifying the reasons for the agility that is observed in a particular case allows us to develop hypotheses that, when tested, provide evidence regarding the markers of agility.
p.251 When a sufficient set of markers has been identified, and the relationships between and among these markers and the agility value chain have been determined, the descriptive model of the agility becomes a predictive one. Exploratory analyses using a predictive model allows us to develop rules that, if followed, are expected to improve agility.
p.251 potential agility... cannot be directly observed. Potential agility is about being prepared for unanticipated future events or changes in circumstances. Thus potential agility must be inferred from a set of markers or agility-related variables that reflect the characteristics of the entity and/or are included in the appropriate process-value model. [JLJ - a sports coach sets up a scrimmage and watches for evidence of stretching-to-meet-the-intelligently-constructed-challenge as well as evidence of buckling-under-intelligently-created-pressure-and-multiple-threats. He makes changes to formations, develops new drills to improve weaknesses, develops a game plan.]
p.253 I believe that agility is, in large part, determined by the interactions that are enabled as a result of both investments in infrastructure and appropriate policy or approach. Each approach is associated with a set of policies that incentivize and facilitate some interactions while disincentivizing or inhibiting other interactions.
p.253 Figure IV-17 leaps directly from information to understanding [JLJ - yeah, in your dreams it does. For the rest of us, it is merely confusing]
p.254 This integrated process-value model can be used to identify individual variables or sets of variables that are candidates to be tested to see if they can be used, are positively or negatively associated with agility, and thus, as markers or indicants of potential agility. [JLJ - Oh I see. You find markers of agility, then you read these markers to see if you are agile or not. Great idea. But how do I determine or find markers of agility? I suppose I stare at figure IV-17 until they come to me.]
p.276 the ability to successfully cope is situation dependent.
p.291 Since agility is the capability to maintain acceptable levels of effectiveness and efficiency over a range of conditions and circumstances, exploring the agility of an individual, system, organization, or collective requires that an entity's effectiveness and efficiency be observed under a range of conditions.
p.526 There are a number of words that are used to refer to a lack of agility... I think the word rigid works best. Rigid conjures up a vivid picture of something that cannot move or change.
[JLJ - I think rigid is too sharp a word. You can possess a great amount of agility, yet it might not be enough - consider a player cut from a high-school basketball team. This player might have an incredible ability to shoot the ball, pass, play defense, etc, yet might just miss the cut made by the team coach. Such a player is hardly rigid. We can speak of requisite agility, the ability to perform, the ability to make things happen or to make multiple threats, etc. Rigid is not quite appropriate.]
p.527 We should consider this condition of rigidity to be an illness that can and must be treated. [JLJ - thinking that we ourselves can "know" when we are agile is an illness that can and must be treated. I feel that we can only guess at our own agility, and are likely overestimating]
p.528 Decision-making that does not take into consideration the cascade of consequences or relies on predictions that are subject to large error contributes to increased risk.
p.529 To be fair, many entities are aware that their prediction, with respect to a mission they need to perform, might not come to pass, and they are also aware that changes in circumstances might well occur. However, they prepare for these eventualities by generating a relatively small number of planning scenarios and developing highly focused contingency plans.
p.530 Rigidity presents symptoms, and some of them are easy to spot... some of its symptoms are easy to misread.
p.532 Sometimes rigidity... can be detected by observing the entity when it is subjected to a combination of stresses. The concept of a stress test to uncover rigidity was recently applied to our financial institutions.
p.560 Agility is relevant to almost everything we design and build... I look forward to being a part of this grand exploration into the power of agility. [JLJ - yes, but agility is ultimately in the eye of the beholder and can only be estimated using an intelligently constructed scheme or system, including perhaps a cascading diagnostic or stress test. What is agile to you is not necessarily agile to me. Competition (on the playing field or battlefield) is the test of agility, and intelligently simulated competition is one measure of agility, including effective assessments of scenarios that are or are not worth our time investigating.]
|
