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Simple Rules: How to Thrive in a Complex World (Sull, Eisenhardt, 2015)

Donald Sull, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt

Another take at simple rules: http://johnljerz.com/superduper/tlxdownloadsiteWEBSITEII/id389.html

JLJ - The problem with truly "simple rules" is that we are very capable of noticing, then processing richly detailed and complex information cues in our environment. There might be situations where using a "complex rule" works better (performance wise) than a "simple rule", and which we can apply with ease and without thinking.

Consider: an NFL quarterback reading defenses. A linebacker notices that an offensive lineman is leaning back in his stance, suggesting a blocking pattern typical for a passing play. A major league baseball player at bat against a pitcher who is giving away subtle cues as to which pitch he is throwing. A runner taking a lead off of first base, subconsciously bending his knees in the pause before he takes off to steal second base. A poker player taking several seconds longer than usual to place his bet. And so on.

The point: an opponent who knows you are using simple rules might have the advantage he needs to defeat you. Now what?

It seems that "simple rules" can work when they are part of an effective system. But the "system" might call for more complex rules, at certain times.

Practical, performance based, and richly detailed cues, which can be processed automatically through years of practice and effort, might just put "simple rules" out to pasture. But first let's see what Sull and Eisenhardt have to say.

p.4 Given the complexity of the injuries they encounter, you might think medics use complicated algorithms to classify the wounded. They don't. Instead they rely on a handful of simple rules... to quickly sort injured patients into three or four categories, prioritizing them for treatment. [JLJ - perhaps, but if a patient is a borderline case I suspect that the medic uses a secondary set of rules that is more complex]

p.5 Simple rules are shortcut strategies that save time and effort by focusing our attention and simplifying the way we process information.

p.224 People crave simplicity and, as we've argued throughout this book, simple rules often outperform more complicated approaches. Why aren't simple rules even more common? [JLJ - perhaps missing the point. You can have "just slightly more" than simple rules. "Simple" is not clearly defined. And you can have just slightly more complicated than that. And so on. Also, in a competitive environment, it might be easier to undo a competitor who uses just "simple rules". Now what? The business market is constantly changing. By the time you perfect your "simple rules", they likely no longer work as well.]