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NOAA forecast model

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/model_summary_20090724.pdf

JLJ - NOAA text on their use of forecast models. The concept here can be applied to game theory. Much of the playing of a complex game of strategy involves making intuitive forecasts of the consequences of interlocking tensions in time, and a strategic setting of attention for exploratory diagnostics based on such forecasts.

Are we making an evaluation at the endpoint of our search tree, as in the traditional thinking, or are we instead constructing heuristics to make a forecast?

What can we learn from NOAA, about forecasting? Hurricane Florence (2018) led me to this site and material present on it.

The term "forecast model" refers to any objective tool used to generate a prediction of a future event, such as the state of the atmosphere. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses many models as guidance in the preparation of official track and intensity forecasts...

Forecast models vary tremendously in structure and complexity. They can be simple enough to run in a few seconds on an ordinary computer, or complex enough to require a number of hours on a supercomputer. [JLJ - text formatting added for readability]

  • Dynamical models, also known as numerical models, are the most complex and use high-speed computers to solve the physical equations of motion governing the atmosphere.
  • Statistical models, in contrast, do not explicitly consider the physics of the atmosphere but instead are based on historical relationships between storm behavior and storm-specific details such as location and date.
  • Statistical-dynamical models blend both dynamical and statistical techniques by making a forecast based on established historical relationships between storm behavior and atmospheric variables provided by dynamical models.
  • Trajectory models move a tropical cyclone (TC) along based on the prevailing flow obtained from a separate dynamical model.
  • Finally, ensemble or consensus models are created by combining the forecasts from a collection of other models.