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Note: the authors present certain words in bold italics in order to indicate to the reader that the glossary (provided at the end of the book) has a good definition of the particular word or term, in order to help at understanding. In my notes below, I present these particular words or terms in italics, but remove the bold face, as I use that format style for my own highlighting purposes. For example, the word complex (in p.1 of the text notes below) actually appears in the book text as bold italics complex.
[1 Introduction]
p.1 This book is about two contrasting worldviews. On the one hand there is the 'mechanical' view of the world, the idea that the world works like a machine. In this view the future is a predetermined path inexorably unfolding from the present... In contrast a complexity worldview sees the world as essentially interconnected, and rich with forms and patterns that have been shaped by history and context. A complexity worldview reminds us of the limits to certainty, it emphasizes that things are in a continual process of 'becoming' and that there is potential for startlingly new futures where what emerges can be unexpected and astonishing... If you take on board what it means to say the world is complex, this will change the way you think, feel, and act.
p.6 We hope this book will have something to offer a wide range of people. First of all, we hope it is of interest to people who have heard of complexity theory and would like better to understand what it is about.
p.7 this book is not primarily a 'how to' book. It does not contain many frameworks or checklists, although we do try to bring concepts alive with real-life examples. Our primary intention is to challenge the reader to question his or her underlying assumptions about the way the world works... a change of outlook may not change what we do, but it may change how we do it and the degree of certainty with which we approach our actions and decisions... Hopefully it will... interest those people... who are trying to reach for a new way of thinking and being in the world.
p.8 Complexity thinking in brief... here is a succinct definition of what complexity theory and complex thinking is all about. When we say the world is complex we are saying it is:
- Systemic: the world cannot be understood through taking apart the bits and understanding them separately. Factors work together synergistically, that is, the whole is different from the sum of the parts. We live as part of patterns of relationships.
- Path-dependent: history matters and the sequence of events is a key factor in giving shape to the future.
- Sensitive to context: one size does not fit all, and the way change happens and the way the future emerges is dependent on the detailed and particular events and patterns of relationships and particular features in the local situation. By generalizing we risk throwing out the very information that sheds light on why things happen and what might happen next.
- Emergent, uncertain, but not random: although the future does not follow smoothly from the past, neither is what happens random. The world is neither chaotic nor predictable but somewhere in between.
- Episodic: things are becoming, developing, and changing, but change seems to happen in fits and starts. The intriguing thing about the world is that on the surface patterns of relationships and structures can seem almost stable for long periods of time, although micro-changes may be going on under the surface. And then radical change can happen suddenly and new patterns of relationships can self-organize and some completely new features that could not have been predicted may emerge.
p.8-9 ancient cosmologies... saw that the fundamental principle of the universe was becoming, characterized by flow and change... Form emerges from relationships between the things of which it is constituted... Darwin's view of evolution takes this worldview further in that it places attention on how things evolve. Darwin emphasized the importance of variation. Variation may invade the patterning locally and any new emergent pattern may or may not be adapted to local circumstances. Evolution shows that change is always, initially, local and particular to the unique and historically placed set of events and interactions.
p.9 Ilya Prigogine... asked 'why does life mount the incline that matter descends?' His answer, in a nutshell, was that the physics of the time... tended to assume that situations of interest could be considered as closed, and therfore independent of, not interacting with, their environment. If we recognize that situations of interest are generally connected and engaged with their environment - that they are open - then it can be shown that structures and patterns can emerge.
p.10 What is interesting is that pre-Socratic cosmologies, evolutionary theory, complexity theory, and our own personal experience have arrived at a very similar viewpoint as to the way the world works
p.10 The fact that complexity is a 'new science' has power. Indeed, it reframes science and emphasizes that the only reliable way to investigate the way things are, and certainly the way things change, is through paying attention to the local detail - to the 'minutely organized particulars', as William Blake (1908) called them.
This is challenging, as complexity thinking suggests we can never be entirely sure what will happen next, what will be the results of any intervention or shift. It emphasizes the limits to any universal knowledge, the limits to prediction
p.11 Complexity provides a frame within which to interrogate what we see and experience - it gets us to consider, for example, whether situations are resilient or whether dominant factors have become 'locked-in' and cannot easily change, or how things might become unstable and collapse or 'tip'.
p.11 we are engaged in an unending, imperfect attempt to make sense of things. Any understanding we may develop will necessarily be temporary
p.12 What we regard as our knowledge and understanding is based on investigating whatever has been stable for a time - but unless we can predict exactly when a tipping point will occur then such understanding is probably useful, but also potentially dangerous if we do not recognize its tentative nature.
p.13 This book is not about how to do modelling... Our hope is that this is a consciousness-raising, paradigm-shifting book that gets you thinking, one that causes you to pause when adopting commonly held ideas and methods, and which encourages you to critique the basis on which 'things are done'.
[2 The Nature of a Complex World]
p.19 variation is a very positive and necessary process which gives rise to the resilience of natural and social systems, and gives them their ability to self-regulate... Let us look in a little more detail at how variation leads to resilience. In reality, different parts of the forest will be subtly different from each other - partly due to the terrain and conditions, partly due to chance... This variation allows resilience to changing conditions... the dynamic balance in the forest may shift in favour of certain species or certain relationships between species and against others, in response to changing conditions.
If such environmental changes are fluctuating rather than permanent, the ecological balance my shift back again to what it was. The fact that there is variety... allows the forest to cope with environmental fluctuations.
p.19-20 It is the variation or micro-diversity amongst individuals within a species, together with the diversity between species, together with the variations across the forest that, coupled with responding to fluctuations in the environment, means there is more than one available pattern of relationships which can produces [sic] a 'balance' in the system. This variety provides resilience and self-regulation. [JLJ - text has 'produces', apparently an error or typo, 'produce' is likely what was meant.]
p.24-25 intervention and change strategies must be contingent on the prevailing conditions.
[3 Unpacking Complexity]
p.27 Our interest in writing this book is to explore how complexity theory might help us navigate in the world and make judgments as to what strategies and actions to adopt... Complexity at its essence is not a model or a method or a metaphor, it is a description of the way things are.
p.28 Our starting point is to assert that the world really is complex, uncertain, and changing. Complexity is, we are asserting, not merely a methodology, or a model, it is the reality of the living world... the future is hard to predict. There are many influences on any situation... The sequence of events is important... will be influenced by the order in which events happen... and also by the way independent factors chance to come together... We believe it is hard to argue with the assertion that the world is complex - interconnected, uncertain, affected by particular sequences of events, as well as constrained by existing, relatively stable features
p.29 the central tenet of complexity theory:
It is detail and variation coupled with interconnection that provide the fuel for innovation, evolution, change, and learning.
p.29-30 There is a natural tendency, when many diverse things can be connected in many diverse ways, for patterns of relationships to emerge. Studying these patterns constitutes the primary fare of economists, ecologists, marketers, and social scientists in general... If patterns sustain, then we feel they provide the information we need to predict the future. We think they can be studied 'scientifically'. In many cases our responses to identifying these patterns sharpens them and locks them in, as we refine our behaviour to respond to their predictions and try to 'game' the system... These patterns, however, are always in practice 'wobbling' or fluctuating because they are, in reality, made up of a collection of individual and varied actions and behaviours.
p.30 Patterns are always under threat of disruption by events... Wherever they come from, these events and variations may cause the current patterns to shift, to 'tip' into something new.
p.31 These two factors - enduring patterns and specific events - through interacting together, shape what happens. Complexity theory emphasizes that we cannot make judgements about the future, about the likelihood and nature of change without exploring this interplay. Current patterns form the context in which events may or may not gain impact and so may or may not destabilize them. Thus the future unfolds through the patterns that have been established in the past interacting with current events or variations.
[JLJ - It certainly looks that way, but I disagree on a technicality. The patterns seen are more accurately the signs - a snapshot in time perhaps - of the driving forces in interaction. We reduce complexity by interpreting subtle cues in the perceived patterns. A deGeus-style 'driving forces' is a more accurate term than 'the process of qualitative change' - as if change itself is a thing.]
p.31 Complexity theory emphasizes that we cannot understand how the future may unfold if we ignore the detail - the contingent and local processes that create change.
p.34 At its basis, complexity thinking assumes that the world is comprised of a myriad of elements that interact.
[JLJ - More than elements that interact, it is a story of sentient things that struggle amongst themselves, and non-sentient forces that exchange energy.]
p.35 everything that is there, measurable or not, concrete or not, will contribute to pattern formation and pattern breaking.
p.39 adaptability and resilience require diversity, variation, and fluctuation. Allen (2001) describes the need for this redundancy (that is, having more options or pathways that are necessary to function like a machine) as the law of excess diversity. He is saying that unless there are more pathways or options (called degrees of freedom by mathematicians) than are required to operate efficiently, there is no resilience to changing circumstances. However much diversity seems requisite (Ashby, 1956) for a system to function at a given time, more than this will be required to cope with what is likely to happen in the future.
p.39 we cannot understand the dynamic nature of complex situations without paying attention to all these various forms of variety. The particular pathways that can and may occur depend on the detail of what happens. To average out the detail is to lose vital information about the nature of change, leading to inferences that may be qualitatively wrong, wrong by nature not just quantitatively approximate.
p.44 Self-organization results in structure that does not come from a blueprint, is not designed, and is strongly affected by local interactions.
p.46 this understanding of the characteristics of the complex world emphasizes the need for judgment, for experimentation, and for adaptation.
p.46 However much information we gather, however well we analyse it, we can still not reliably paint a picture as to what might happen. In part we must make judgments informed through what we already know, together with what we can learn through experimentation and through exploration of what is working well and through scanning the wider world. Every action becomes an experiment as we cannot reliably know in advance what will take off, what will be really effective and what will not.
p.47 we can inform our judgements about the future through scenario planning, through intelligence gathering, through being on the ground in our organizations and with their clientele.
[4 Have We Thought Like This Before?]
p.54-55 Daoism, from China... captures a sense of interconnection and co-creation... the people 2,500 years ago developed an understanding of the nature of things which is almost identical to complexity theory... they immersed themselves in the experience of life in a manner which reached beneath reason. They sought to engage with the world in as direct a way as possible, rather than through the lens of a theory.
p.68 Prigogine talked of the future as being 'under perpetual construction' (Prigogine, 1997:1).
[JLJ - ...and the future of concern to us is the one that will influence/ impact the 'predicament' we find ourselves in, daily. 99.999999999% of the universe we ought not to care about, as it doesn't impact or influence our efforts to achieve our goals.]
[5 The Complexity of Complexity Theories]
p.72 It is a general truth that any simplifications omit complexity, the complexity that exists in the real world.
[JLJ - Yes, but sometimes simplifications work, such as in providing useful guidance or direction, in how to go on from within a predicament. In this case, they are useful.]
p.72 A mathematical model is a way of representing a situation or problem in abstract form and, often, but not always, in such a way that it allows for exploration of the future, rather than just a description of the present.
p.78 in mathematical models, understanding and prediction are achieved in practice by making successive assumptions concerning the situation under study.
p.79 The first simplifying assumption, in moving away from 'raw reality', is to assume that the situation with which we are concerned has a 'boundary'. We further assume that the situation of interest directly concerns the interaction of some elements, which we will consider to to be 'inside' this boundary, whilst others with a less direct effect will be 'outside', in the 'environment'... boundaries may shift or may be permeable, and any assertions or selections about boundaries will typically be open to the criticism that they are assumed or constructed.
p.80 The second key assumption concerns that of 'classification', in which we make decisions as to how to label the different types of 'thing' that populate our system... our experience of the world leads us to suppose initially that the 'situation' we wish to understand suggests some necessary variables or dimensions that we will need to represent... We are developing a model, a theoretical representation pragmatically by looking at what seems to 'work'.
p.80 With these two assumptions only, we are able to explore quantitative change, and represent a system that can, over time, reach into new dimensions of behaviour and being, with emergent capabilities and characteristics... Evolutionary complex models allow us to explore the dynamics of change
p.83 You might ask, 'if a model is translated into a computer program - an algorithm - then how could it produce multiple possible futures?' One approach is to include, in addition to the core model, random noise - that is, random variations or novel behaviours that are added to the mechanical program.
p.84 a key point is that continued 'experimentation' with the model can allow different possible emergent outcomes to be revealed. Whilst some of the expected benefits may indeed occur, there will perhaps be unexpected effects that had not been previously anticipated. Proceeding forwards by using exploration and reflection would seem to be a sensible meta-strategy... of course, in 'real life' there will always be unexpected factors that cannot be anticipated by any modelling.
p.85 Evolutionary complex models allow the exploration of structural instabilities leading to structural changes where new factors can emerge and others disappear - as well as self-organization and unfolding change. So with evolutionary complex systems modelling we are modelling both what happens between tipping points, and what happens at tipping points; we are modelling the process of emergence, of evolution, of qualitative change. [JLJ - Ok, I'll take one of those. But wait... you have to create it yourself from scratch.]
p.88 what individuals survive will depend on the current patterns of relationships, and what continues to survive will depend on how these patterns themselves are changed by the individuals.
p.89 the future is created by the interplay between current macroscopic patterns of relationships and the way the micro - events, variations, and actors, from both inside and outside the system - invade and change those current patterns, which then change what future behaviours can succeed. This interplay of micro with macro was one of Prigogine's important insights.
[JLJ - reminds me of:
LØVBORG. Yes, it does; and this one [JLJ - Lovborg's book] deals with the future.
TESMAN. With the future! But, good heavens, we know nothing of the future!
LØVBORG. No; but there is a thing or two to be said about it all the same]
p.89 It is the non-average micro-behaviour included in the Master Equation but ignored in deterministic system dynamics... that will buffet the system from one regime of operation to another.
p.91 [Bak & Paczuski, 1995]
The basic idea is that large dynamical systems naturally evolve, or self-organize, into a highly interactive, critical state where a minor perturbation may lead to events, called avalanches, of all sizes... if the tape of history were to be rerun, with slightly different random noise, the resulting outcome would be completely different.
[JLJ - Yawn. The 'tape of history' played out THIS way, and not THAT way. Deal with it. My parallel theme is that we must manage the predicament we are in, not fantasize about the one that did not happen. We are sentient beings with limited time and resources, and ultimately we must manage our rest and our rage, we must invest our personal resources strategically, if we are to have any hope or success in achieving our goals/ meeting our needs, or achieving happiness. We must philosophize daily on what our world is, what it means and what our place is, in it. The alternative is to drift along in the currents of the stronger forces, possibly washing up on unintended shores, or becoming a victim in another's cunning plan.]
p.92-93 In practice, firms or cities are constantly changing and adapting... there is an evolutionary race going on... Strategy therefore has to be about innovation and improving organizational performance
p.97 Our views and understandings in our world have to be based on abstractions, and we must remember that abstractions are in fact our own - or our shared - creations.
Mathematical models can give these abstractions a misleading solidity and lead us to a falsely simple view of what is really happening, or what is possible.
p.98 however hard we try, the model we develop in our attempt to represent 'reality' will always be incomplete... whatever simple scheme of causal interactions we find that seems to fit the data will actually depend on thousands of factors that are not even thought about, and therefore not included explicitly in the model... really any model will be a created simplification of a situation that in reality is open to thousands of possible interventions and invasions. These will be ignored for as long as the model is still deemed to be useful.
p.99 Our models, understandings, and interpretive frameworks are in practice pragmatically constructed on the basis of observations of apparent relationships between possible variables that we choose to represent the 'system'. The relationships... are based on the sometimes serendipitous observation of regularities... we try to find entities whose interactions appear to agree with the changes that we have observed in our experience, and which we hope will provide a basis for successful reflections about the future... If we are skilled in identifying the right variables, and if we can build the right models, we may be able to represent aspects of reality. But each variable and each modelled interaction between variables is in fact an abstraction from the real world.
p.101 Our advice, then, is to be confident in the propensity for situations to tip - to change radically and irreversibly
p.103 Evolutionary complexity accepts the fact that 'systems' can change their nature qualitatively over time. New elements, new interactions, new problems, and new opportunities can appear without design, and indeed these evolving systems will actually co-evolve with each other so that the overall system is really discovering/creating itself over time... real situations have a multitude of possible pathways into the future. Structural instabilities... are precisely about things that are currently neither in the model nor in the 'normal' thoughts and behaviour of average agents... nobody knows what will succeed until it is tried.
p.104 The power lies not with what is already present, but with what might emanate from within or invade from without. What matters most for the future is not what is already there, but what is not there yet. [JLJ - Francois Jullien calls this "becoming".] This is what leads to the impossibility of capturing permanently, and hence predicting, the long-term behaviour of any situation involving living beings. All we can hope to do is try to see what may be true for a time.
[JLJ Russel, Power, a New Social Analysis, 1938: p.23 Power may be defined as the production of intended effects. It is thus a quantitative concept... roughly... A has more power than B, if A achieves many intended effects and B only a few.]
[6 Complexity and the Social World]
p.105 The following chapters explore what it means to 'embrace complexity'
p.106 Complexity thinking presents a worldview, a view of the world as organic, adapting, becoming, and emerging. We argue that this worldview is more realistic than a mechanical worldview, of a world that is predictable, where change goes to plan and in which the cogs in the machine, including people, are unchanging and controllable.
p.107 We are, however, arguing that the core tenets of complexity theory (as set out in Section 1.3 [JLJ - see p.8]) give a good description of the social world. We are arguing that organizations and societies are examples of complex systems.
p.107 If we remain alert to what is, then we are better able to critique whether any theories or models seem to fit.
p.115 Stories people tell can indicate what they see as important, how they have a sense of events, and what is the prevailing discourse and culture. Some researchers feel that such stories need to be 'complete', to have a sort of integrity - a beginning, a middle, and end. Other researchers... collect fragments of narrative... Fragments of narrative, Georgakopoulou argues, are more immediate, more authentic, and are less prone to bias in selection.
p.116 Particular mention should be given to the work on 'complex responsive processes' of Ralph Stacey (2001). He speaks of 'the highly complex communicative, relational processes in which we accomplish joint action in the living present'. He continues: 'Knowledge is not designed, nor does it exist in a transcendent common pool, but emerges in a process in which it causes itself in the interaction between bodies in local situations in the living present' (2001): 216).
p.116 Stacey's focus is that the social complex world exists in the relational, reflexive processes between people and it is there, he emphasizes, that we should focus for knowledge and understanding of what is and what is becoming.
p.117 Dealing with complex situations is as much about persistence when there is little to show for it, as it is about agility, about spotting and seizing opportunities.
p.117-118 the best way to explore the complex world is by taking note of and noticing things prospectively (Johnson and Boulton, 2013). In this way you can get a sense of things emerging and changing, even if some of these things later were to die away. The pathways that create the future are influenced by transient phenomena and by seemingly abortive actions and events, as well as by things that sustain. We cannot really get a sense of how change happens in a complex world if we miss some of the detailed, path-dependent sequence of events.
p.118 Complexity theory sees change as arising at the microscopic level, in the detailed interactions in particular circumstances... but to understand change and spot emerging impacts... there need to be ways of spotting signs, weak signals of such emerging change.
The most effective way to try to gain evidence of contributions to change is for the project team to look out for signs of emerging change or changing conditions, and to start to monitor such changes as implementation proceeds... As these are noted some will appear to fade away whilst others may become particularly important. Decisions can then be made as to which to trace.
p.119 if we predetermine what to monitor we may fail to notice emergent change... Looking forwards is about looking for weak signals of change, and of course, how do you decide what is important to follow? The answer is not clear-cut. It is a matter of judgement, but judgement based on evidence... and subject to interpretation... You follow up 'weak signals' by looking for any associated evidence and looking for patterns over time. Then you make a judgement.
Dealing with 'weak signals' is not simple to describe, but if you talk to people who have to make judgements... this is the kind of thing they actually do... if you are not used to reading the signals, then the judgement... becomes harder to call. The temptation is to wait until the evidence is absolutely certain, by which time it may be too late.
p.120 complexity thinking... the approach is about investigating patterns of connections over time and yet being alert to emergent change. But wanting more clarity than is possible can lead to erroneous understandings
[7 Complexity and Management]
p.122 The managerial dilemma is not just to understand or even merely recognize what is happening, but to try to decide what to do next... Complexity thinking tells us that prediction, design, and control are tricky, and this can be hard to accept because what we probably desire is a predictable, unambiguous answer to how to act in a complex world.
p.122-123 A central theme in this book is that truly to accept that the world is complex changes us. It fundamentally causes us to rethink how we approach the world, how we make sense of what happens, how we approach everything we do. A shift to embracing complexity... can have enormous impact.
p.123 To accept that the world is complex rather than predictable and controllable is to change our approach to everything: our approach to change, to management, to policy development, to evaluation, to leadership - and to living. The real shift in adopting a complexity mindset is... that it changes how we use existing methods, how we frame issues, what we see as important, and how we assess what it means to be successful... If we embrace complexity then it changes everything... A complexity mindset... requires a judicious balance between planning and adapting
p.134 In general, then, a complexity-informed approach to implementing change finds a new middle ground between pre-planning, analysis, and persistence on the one hand, and agility, experimentation, and adaptation on the other... A complexity-informed approach requires shorter cycles of planning and review to respond to the dynamic nature of change and the potential for changing contexts... a complexity approach avoids any feeling that a planned change process has 'failed' because unanticipated events derailed some aspects of the change process.
[8 Complexity and Strategy]
p.138 Strategy is the term that is used to describe the process of shaping what the organization should do to achieve its aims.
[JLJ - Yes, but in a competitive world, filled with similarly strategic-minded organizations...]
p.150 In general, organizations dealing in dynamic, emergent markets almost by definition are engaging with complex tasks, even if the product is a simple one. The basis of advantage is likely to be in their ability to come up with creative and adaptive solutions to future possible scenarios... the organization will likely need to extend the diversity of the knowledge resources, to encourage experimentation, and to enhance the ability of people to interact with each other and find novel solutions.
p.158 In practice, strategy is likely to be a mix of deliberate intentions, emergent ideas, and the seizing of opportunities - the shaping factor being, to a large extent, what works, what is taken up by the market, or what falls on stony ground.
p.160 We must see strategies as experiments, no matter how thought through they are. What emerges as strategy may be a result of unexpected failures or unexpected successes, and the successful company will see strategy as an organic and reflexive process of trial and error... the need constantly to look at what is happening in practice, and look for signs of change, cannot be overemphasized... there are times when certain interventions catalyse massive and radical change, and other times when little seems to happen.
[JLJ - Yes, but Napoleon did not conduct experiments when he lead the French armies to conquer continental Europe. His military training and study informed him of techniques that worked, and of mistakes that were to be avoided. When you have techniques that work you do not have to experiment, you instead execute one maneuver after another, untl you have what you desire.]
p.161 Given the challenges of complexity and uncertainty we are more likely in general to be able to understand 'strategy' in organizations as an emergent and reflexive process.
p.161 If strategy is to have any effect it has to influence the day-to-day activities of the people inside the organization. In this sense strategy is an unfolding set of actions, initiatives, and experiments. Strategy, ideally, is a set of evolving, coordinated change initiatives, and it responds to the success or otherwise of these initiatives and to emerging issues, as the changes are implemented.
[JLJ - Yes, but only in a system underway and fully engaged with the environment, and with clear goals. You defeat the enemy, and then what? They can mount continued guerrilla operations, and turn the tide. Strategy must exist within a grand strategy, a much larger plan for sustained operations after initial and continued operations change the present state of things to one that is - initially or temporarily - in your favor.]
p.162 As we have suggested we would prefer to think of strategy as a managed emergent process, as something that results from conversations, from interactions, from actually 'doing' it; something that is ongoing, as opposed to a discrete and formalized process that produces the 'strategic plan' for the business.
p.163-164 A mid-range approach between providing no central strategic direction at one extreme, and setting a clear direction, in the knowledge that this is a risky bet, is to set 'simple rules'. This idea, from Kathy Eisenhardt and Donald Sull (2001), sees the management setting guidelines or 'rules of thumb' that set broad limits and constraints on subsequent decisions... to make sure that the 'rules' continue to be appropriate it would make sense for the managers to ensure that they are gaining the maximum benefit from any weak signals emanating from the environment. This requires effort and attention being devoted to 'scanning' activity... simple rules... At best they provide a way for shaping intention
p.164 we summarize the advice we would give to the strategist through the lens of complexity... We would advise that you:
- Build a portfolio - your cash cow will ultimately die
- Foresight the future
- Weave clear intentions globally, plan locally
- Cast around for growing shoots
- Experiment, seize opportunities, and adapt to changing circumstances
- Find the middle ground
p.166 Implementers rather than designers of strategy are often the first to be in touch with what is and is not working; they can often sense any changing patterns of behaviour before they can be proven. Sometimes there are growing shoots of innovation and weak signals of market success hidden from the view of senior managers which can get trampled on unwittingly.
p.169 A complexity view of strategy tells us that both the external environment and the internal operations of the firm interact, co-evolve, and shape each other. Therefore, we should be wary of any strategy prescriptions which imply that we can predict the future, or that we can be certain of the internal and external effects of any changes we instigate.
p.170 We cannot 'pull' a level of change and assume we can predict the ultimate impact of this intervention.
[9 Complexity and International Development]
p.188 paying attention to 'growing shoots', to weak signals of possible emergent change, can allow their tracking to see whether such shoots grew more generally or faded away, whether such shoots needed nurturing or weeding.
[10 Complexity and Economics]
p.204 Complexity thinking reminds us that it is only in special cases that we can consider problems in isolation from their context and environment, and assume the world is composed of simple, linear relationships between unchanging factors. It reminds us that the world is essentially interconnected, messy, uncertain, and changing.
p.204 Applying complexity and evolutionary thinking is not new. There is substantial interest in the fields of complexity and evolutionary economics, dating from Veblen (1898), including... Arthur (1989)... and explored by Beinhocker (2007)... and the longer term (Meadows et al., 1972).
[11 Final Reflections]
p.220 Mathematical modelling is a key theme for complexity thinking, as much of the 'scientific' work to understand the nature of complexity, and to apply it to various problems, stems from modelling.
p.221 the model is not reality... Models can be used to explore complex issues that are not accessible to 'just thinking'. It allows us to understand the relationship between things and to consider future impacts.
[JLJ - No, but we would not be interested in the model of reality if it did not give us insight into some aspect of what is real.]
p.222 The model is an ongoing learning tool for those involved, informing them of their scope for action and reaction, and producing different possible pathways into the future... So, even though models are not reality, they can play a role within that reality, by shaping the knowledge and understanding of the people involved.
p.222-223 Complexity recognizes the limits to knowledge.
p.223 because you don't know everything, you cannot control outcomes, therefore when you act, act with an expectation that you need to learn from the action.
p.224 one use of models is to allow policymakers, executives, or whoever insight into the system in which they are trying to intervene.
p.227 in general, exploring possible futures is a key aspect of models.. A model is a much easier way of gaining insight into the possible impact of future actions or future changes in the wider environment.
p.230 the world is complex whether we like it or not, and whether or not we choose to embrace that complexity. Complexity theory helps to give us a handle on how a complex world might operate and gives perspective to the way things are.
p.232 strategy is not a blueprint, or a plan. Strategy becomes an ongoing, unfolding, and emergent process. We will need experiments to test out possibilities, and we will need to allow for challenge, encourage diverse thinking, and above all make sure we are getting plenty of feedback so we can make adjustments along the way.
p.232 Wishing the world was predictable and controllable does not make it so, and it may make us disregard what is actually happening... complexity thinking... changes how you see the world... once you start viewing organizations through a complexity perspective you can better understand why change happens, and why it doesn't happen. You can see that attempts to predict the future are precursors to beliefs that we can control the future.
p.233 we are saying, 'do what you do now, but review progress more often, expect things not entirely to go to plan, build on success, experiment, and don't see having to adapt as failure'... If we know that we cannot predict the future, and that we cannot with any certainty know the effects of a particular action or initiative, we know that attempts to 'design' and then force the shape of our organization's future are probably misguided.
p.236 in the end, complexity takes us back to pragmatism... you end up with trial and error and reflection - and... modelling is part of that reflection... In the long term, honest pragmatism is likely to succeed more than disingenuous attempts at self-justification and the maintenance of long-held views.
p.239 Complexity isn't a method; complexity is a statement of the nature of reality. The world is complex whether you like it or not, and trying to control it and trying to pretend it isn't, trying to have certainty when there isn't any, can do more harm than good... our aim was not to put forward a set of tools, but rather to help you see the world in a different way... a complexity view... once you embrace this way of thinking there is no going back to a mechanical mindset... We hope that you have started to make this journey yourself, and that it will ultimately make... your contributions to the wider world more effective, sustaining, and valuable. Good luck on your journey [JLJ - to the authors: thanks, and good luck on yours.]
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