p.1 Experience teaches that detailed forecasts are regularly defeated by
reality.
p.1 The interaction of forces in the field we routinely describe
as the future is so complicated and so interwoven that it defeats attempts at long-term prediction. The further you
look into the future, the more impossible prediction becomes. You can sometimes predict short, but you can't predict long.
One response to such a future is to give up on planning. Why plan in a world without prediction? The answer is not
to give up on planning; it's to give up on prediction.
p.1 So how do you plan in a world without prediction? ...A
complex world demands organizational readiness. Readiness describes an organization that can be viable across a variety of
conditions. It requires continuous adjustment and willful abandonment. Readiness depends on the ability to
quickly adopt, adjust, or abandon initiatives and investments once new conditions materialize.
p.1 When it comes to strategic planning, most prediction should
be replaced with "flexible persistence." Flexible persistence that supports successful strategic planning in a complex
environment embodies a paradox - it requires both resolve and a willingness to retreat... The things that the organization
should be persistent about include its mission, values, and vision - what it intends "to be." These should be widely
understood and non-negotiable... The flexibility comes with strategies, tactics and action plans. These describe "what
to do." They are fluid, and they change as often as necessary. An important part of this view of
strategic planning is the recognition that "what works" is completely and continuously mutable in a complex environment.
p.2 Flexible persistence argues for clarity and resolve around mission,
values, and vision combined with an opportunistic approach to execution.
