p.3 Scenarios were used as a way of systematically wargaming
future events, in an attempt to identify vulnerabilities in defense systems and doctrines well in advance of any conflict.
p.4 The first component of vulnerability is the basic risk
of exposure; natural events occur more often in some places than others. Less visible is the component of
resilience, or how well a system or society can recover following a major event. Resilient systems are those with
resources and backups to use in case certain parts of the system fail... resilience consists of available resources
to rebuild and, even more importantly, healthy relationships between people in the society so that
rebuilding efforts are equitable... Taken together, these measures of vulnerability can be mapped to indicate where
potential environmental changes will have the greatest impact on stability.
p.6 Effective planning requires consideration of not only where instability
may exist but also how environmental changes may impact security operations, domestic resources, and infrastructure. Existing
stability operations can be affected in the short- and long-term.
p.7 Directly targeting environmental resources is a common tactic during
conflicts. It is a measure that decreases an opponent's ability to sustain or rebuild capabilities following a conflict.
p.11 Security scenarios need to address how these systems may attempt to
adapt... the impacted systems are too complex for simplistic assumptions... potential conditions need to match with potential
behaviors and resultant reactions... the identification of critical vulnerabilities and potential intervention points is key
to effective strategic planning.
p.12 Scenario planning can suffer from experiential biases, where well-established
knowledge of past events guides how we perceive the future. What do we not understand yet and what possible limitations
exist? Where are we exploring for evidence of risks? And are there potential risks that we either do not understand well or
to which we are blind, possibly because we are focused elsewhere?
p.12 Proper use of planning scenarios requires identifying key intervention
points in advance of violence or instability. This is necessary to either mitigate such instability or develop reaction capabilities...
The most effective and least costly military operations are ones that never take place.
p.13 The past is unlikely to be our future.
