p.2 A different argument as to why strategies only last for a very short time comes from Weick
[134]. He argues that in an ambiguous and uncertain world the most difficult part of decision making is not choice
making, but sense making. Hence the question is how to absorb the information or
as Waterman [132, p.41] puts it "to structure the unknown". In that sense, Liang and Wang [66, p.397] concluded
that "[...] the most critical task of business education is not about teaching students analytical tools but developing appropriate
mental models."
p.7 System thinking is a concept that is used in many fields.
p.15 As Sterman formulates:
"Dynamic complexity [...] can arise even in simple systems with low combinatorial complexity. [...] Complex
and dysfunctional behavior arises from a very simple system whose rules can be explained in 15 minutes. Dynamic complexity
arises from the interactions among the agents over time. Time delays between taking a decision and its effects on
the state of the system are common and particularly troublesome." [119, p.21] [JLJ - Business Dynamics, 2000]
p.16 The dynamics of systems develop spontaneously from their inner structure. Often, small,
random ripples are amplified and moulded by the feedback structure, generating patterns in space and time and producing path
dependence.
p.16-17 Cause and effect are distant in time and space while agents tend to search for
reasoning near the events they seek to rationalize. Their attention is drawn to symptoms of difficulty rather than the underlying
cause. High impact (leverage) policies are often not obvious.
p.17 Time delays in feedback networks mean the long-term response of a system to an intervention is often
different from its short-term reaction. High leverage policies often cause worse-before-better behavior, while low
leverage policies frequently generate temporary improvement before the original problem worsens.
p.18 Definition 8 Learning
The act, process, or experience of gaining knowledge or skills.
p.22 Like many other scientists before him, he [Sterman] also comes to the conclusion that there
is one possible way to overcome the obstacles. That is to build models which represent a real world problem well enough, so
that one can simulate different scenarios. This is one reason why simulation helps decision makers.
p.24 Definition 11 Organizational Learning
Organizational learning is the process by which an organization acquires the knowledge necessary to
survive and compete in its environment. This includes the development of knowledge and understanding... that leads to effective
action. A learning organization is one with the capacity to acquire the knowledge necessary to survive and compete
in its environment.
p.24 the more successful company distinguishes itself from the others by learning faster.
Crossan et al. [25, p.337] connect learning with sustainable competitive advantage by formulating that: "...the only
sustainable competitive advantage is a firm's ability to learn faster than its competitors." Organizational learning
must be a central ambition for any company that wants to be successful.
p.28 as Ahmad bin Othman and Abdul Mutalib bin Leman [10, p.1] argue: "Knowledge is the basis for, and the
driver of, our economy. Knowledge is the result of learning which provides the sustainable competitive advantage
especially in the fast-changing and competitive environments."
p.28 One possible way of learning about the environment and to gain knowledge about it, is to construct
models that represent a system of interest. With the help of computers, such models can be constructed to simulate
different policies.
p.87-88 The scenario process of translating information into new insights generates not only a new
perception of reality but also helps to uncover new strategic options. In the words of Wack [131, p.89]: "Strategies
are the product of a worldview. [...] Scenarios express and communicate [...] a shared understanding of the new realities
to all parts of the organization." The aim of scenario planning is in the style of Wack [130, p.150] to:
"rediscover the original entrepreneurial power of foresight in contexts of change, complexity and uncertainty."
p.88 the phase of scenario planning and modeling can be reduced into five steps as postulated by Maani and
Cavana [68, p. 80ff]:
- Plan general scope of scenarios
- Identify key drivers of change and fundamental uncertainties
- Construct forced and learning scenarios
- Simulate scenarios with the model
- Evaluate robustness and strength of policies and strategies
p.88 "...The purpose of the learning lab is to enable managers to experiment and see the
consequences of their actions, policies and strategies." Often unintended consequences of actions and inconsistencies
with the personal mental models are discovered... The learning laboratory... provides deeper understanding and insights
into why systems behave the way they do.
p.88 One must keep in mind that the dynamic modeling process is iterative. Hence this means that any outcome
of a step can lead to revisions of previous steps.
