xiv the ultimate test of the value of business intelligence to management: Are they using it? Are they taking
action on it?
[Providing Effective Early Warning: Business Intelligence as a Strategic Control System, Anthony
M. Page, p.5-30]
p.6 Intelligence is, in every sense, a control system... the intelligence system keeps [the corporation]
on track with the external environment - with reality.
p.6-7 as we move into the future, initial assumptions on which our estimates
and decisions were based will diverge from reality... Early warning intelligence reduces
this risk by tracking key strategic assumptions into the future to ensure that past decisions are
continuously adapted to new realities. With its clear focus on effective decision implementation, early warning
intelligence is even more of a pure control system than current and estimative intelligence. It is the "synthetic
sense organ" that keeps the organization on track with the changing external environment.
p.10 In brief, the I&W [Indications and Warnings] methodology encompasses the following
steps. First, basic scenarios must be developed that illustrate the full range of potential strategic shifts (threats
or opportunities) from our initial assumptions. With these identified, the intelligence manager can then
construct a warning problem consisting of a specific set of specially tailored intelligence targets (indicators) which can
be effectively and efficiently monitored. Changes detected through these sets of indicators, known
as "warning problems," are then used to determine when a strategic shift or event is unfolding - prompting
appropriate warnings to the customer.
p.13-14 It is obviously impractical to monitor all possible scenarios. Some decision guidelines
will be needed to select the best candidates... In evaluating how much to spend on this strategic insurance, the relevant
criteria are value and risk.
The first step in evaluating potential warning candidates is to select a minimum value level
to merit consideration for early warning. The level selected should attempt to capture the point at which the strategic
profitability of the organization is threatened... The second evaluation criteria is risk. By conducting a scenario-based
analysis of those issues which pass the value cut-off, it is possible to establish rough probabilities for potential threats.
p.23 The goal of warning is, as Senge might say, to make the frog jump.
[Early Warning Analysis: Preventing Management Surprises, Charles J. Mathey, p.31-48]
p.34 Analytical studies reach conclusions that are reasonable, but are not facts.
They are hypotheses - and as such, must be constantly tested and retested.
p.38 A vulnerability is a weakness that provides you with an opportunity to gain an advantage.
p.39 A quick way to identify strengths and weakness (and strategy hypotheses) is to ask the question,
"How does the competition compete?"
[Bulls Eye! Taking Aim with Targeted Competitive Assessments, Todd L. Hooper, Linda S. Scott, p.53-93]
p.76 Ask not, "Is this perfectly accurate?" But rather, "Is this sufficient to
make a good decision?"
p.77 Competitive assessment is part art, part science and necessarily involves drawing conclusions with
incomplete and imperfect information.
[Counterintelligence, Bill DeGenaro, p.127-145]
p.128 The essence of competitive position is not only based on acquiring a knowledge edge over adversaries
but by developing the ability to out-learn them on a continuing basis. The hyper-learning resulting from a professional
intelligence process is what will separate the winners from the losers in the decades to come.
[Intelligence Collection: Where the Rubber Hits the Road, Douglas C. Bernhardt, p.165-180]
p.179 Competitive intelligence... serves as the lifeblood of competitive strategy
[The Art and Science of Collection Management, Anthony M. Page, p.181-206]
p.181 Collection management is an intelligence methodology that ensures this link [between intelligence
and the customer's requirements]. This process includes six steps: (1) identify the customer's intelligence needs;
(2) analyze these needs to determine information requirements; (3) design a collection strategy to obtain the needed information;
(4) request and coordinate collection efforts; (5) evaluate the quality of information received; and (6)
monitor and update the collection plan as needs change.
p.182 When a customer goes to the store to buy a drill, he doesn't really want a drill. What he wants is
a hole. If you can provide him with a better way to make a hole, or an entirely new way to achieve his objective, you will
have a very satisfied customer. Similarly, when a decision maker (the intelligence customer) asks a question, what
he really wants is to reduce risk by clarifying an area of uncertainty... Collection management proposes that maximum
customer satisfaction can only be obtained by "taking responsibility for information" and focusing the intelligence collection
effort on the customer's true needs.
p.183 Today's organization must watch for approaching threats and fleeting opportunities on a global
scale or risk being outflanked or bypassed by agile competitors. They must also look beyond the sphere of immediate
operations to detect future strategic shifts indicated by the convergence of... environmental trends. This is only possible
if the intelligence effort seeks to develop a broad and complete picture of the competitive environment.
This picture provides a framework within which to interpret specific events and helps make the most of limited intelligence.
p.185 All deliberate information gathering efforts are based on some need, guided by some plan,
and managed in some way... Step One: Define Customer Needs
Market researchers will tell you that the most difficult and critical phase of a project is often correctly
defining the problem.
p.200 today's decision makers need... clear, concise, high-quality intelligence: information that has been
collected and analyzed to support specific decision-making needs. Intelligence efforts guided by a well-designed collection
plan will produce a comprehensive picture of the present and future strategic environment, and will be keyed to identify competitive
threats and opportunities in a timely manner.
p.205 The methodology described is adapted from that used by the U.S. Military. This process has
been validated through decades of use by intelligence managers throughout the military hierarchy... In short, you
should find the basic methodology applicable to any focused intelligence effort... my intent is not to see practitioners
adopt the entire process exactly as described, but to provide a benchmark for consideration and use as appropriate... The
best current source documents for the military intelligence methodologies described are: Field Manuals 34-2 and 34-3,
Department of the Army (1990, 1994). Both documents have been approved for public release and unlimited
distribution. [JLJ - hmmm...]
