p.89 Everyone uses their intuition all of the time. Our brains solve
problems by repeatedly throwing up propositions and knocking them down. Coming up with those propositions is very
dependent on intuition, no matter how junior or inexperienced.
p.90 it is usually better to be informed than not, but only where the information
is reliable, valid and relevant.
p.90-91 The [US] Army Capstone Concept – Operational Adaptability
requires a force to ‘develop the situation through action’. FM 5-0 The Operations Process 2010 introduces
‘design’ as a means of dealing with ill-structured problems. An ill-structured problem requires the problem solver
to engage with the system in order to understand it.
p.91 Decision-making and planning models attempt to categorise the elements
of a problem and its solution, and the following six categories are proposed here to be the most robust and useful:
• The environment – what exists, has existed, and will
exist
• Objectives – how do we want to affect the environment
• Courses of action (COA) – consisting of designs,
methods and plans
• COA analyses – how will COAs affect the environment
• COA evaluations – what value do we place on these
outcomes
• Decisions and execution – communication of COAs to
those that will realise them.
p.93 Complex problems, ill-structured problems and wicked problems (all
largely synonymous) are roughly speaking problems where multiple objectives compete for resources, and the pursuit of one
objective can affect others in ways that are extremely difficult or impossible to predict.
