ix "The problem with the future is that it is different. If you are unable to think differently, the future
will always arrive as a surprise." Gary Hamel
p.3 management, unlike science, is entirely future-oriented.
As a manager, most of the decisions you make today - and all of the really big ones - have to do
with improving the chances for your organization to perform well in the future.
p.4 in order to succeed over the long run, you'll have to succeed in the world as it will exist in
the future... In this as-yet-unknown future landscape, your company will have to be competitive.
p.9 Instead of developing in a nice straight line, the road to the future twists and turns. It's
forked, bumpy, and full of potholes and unexpected dead ends. The guardrails are flimsy. And there are very few road signs
to guide you... we need to figure out a way to see where the road ahead is leading. That way is called scenario
planning.
p.10 You will never be able to see with absolute certainty today the one and only future that will materialize
p.10 a methodology does exist that can help you visualize the future. Or to be more precise, it doesn't
help you see the future, but a range of alternative futures. Each one of these futures, called scenarios,
could plausibly emerge, depending on how developments that are going on today continue to unfold... By creating several
alternative visions that you believe have a reasonable chance of emerging, you are in a better position to prepare yourself
and your organization for the flexibility you'll need to face whichever future does, in fact, unfold.
p.14 the key skill you need as a business leader to maximize your company's chances of success over the
long term: the ability to anticipate the changes that could emerge in your landscape tomorrow. Only with this understanding
is it possible to confidently make the decisions that will help prepare your organization for the changes to come.
p.15 scenario planning aims to illuminate and explore different ways the future might realistically
develop. The scenarios generated by this thinking... should be regarded as insightful indicators of what could
come to pass in the future, depending on the breaks.
p.21 planning isn't a question of predicting the future but preparing for it - no matter
which future actually unfolds.
In this new mental framework, the function of planning is to explore these possible futures
and then confidently take the steps needed to improve your organization's flexibility and responsiveness to the different
opportunities and threats these futures may bring your way.
p.36 What exactly is a driving force? In a nutshell, a driving force is something with the potential
to bring about significant change in the future. It may be a trend, already clearly defined and understood... Another
kind of driving force is a variable that has the potential to change the future in significant ways but is not very predictable
as it is itself dependent on several factors.
p.42 "interestingness"
p.52 From a scenario planning point of view, the best strategy is the one that gives the organization
the greatest degree of flexibility. As the future takes shape (whichever future it happens to be), you will want
room to maneuver.
p.66 It would be easy to think of scenario planning as a tool that is mainly useful to planners and decision
makers in the business world... But this is shortchanging the potential value of the technique to so many other kinds
of organizations, which can also use scenario planning to peer into the future and explore the alternative
environments where, perhaps measuring success in different terms, they need to be every bit as effective
as a business that is aiming to grow its market share or profits.
